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Fedex has 14,500 trucks [0]. That will put tesla's at .13% of the fleet which sounds just like they are buying some to test the economic viability of them. I

by mrep 9y ago

Fedex has 14,500 trucks [0]. That will put tesla's at .13% of the fleet which sounds just like they are buying some to test the economic viability of them. I would hardly use this as a sign "that the main things preventing total EV takeover are lack of good products on the market and production capacity". [0]: https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/fedex-statistics/ https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/fedex-statistics/

thaumaturgy 9y ago
Sure, but you wouldn't expect FedEx to replace their entire fleet this year. A somewhat more meaningful number is how many new FedEx freight trucks will be built by Tesla over the next year. And UPS has placed an order for 125 of them (https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/tesla-semi-electric-truck-order-fedex/ https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/tesla-semi-electric-truck-ord...) as well. You're right that this isn't going to radically transform the country's freight fleet overnight, but I think it's a signal that these companies are willing to switch to EV technology if it works. The next hurdle now seems to be Tesla's ability to execute.
- thewhitetulip 9y ago
  Few things transform overnight, most of them take time.
rawrmaan 9y ago
Fair point, but you have to take this development in context. EVs technologically outpace ICE vehicles on every axis other than refuel time, upfront cost and range. EVs can improve on all of these metrics, whereas ICE vehicles cannot. Therefore a complete switch is only a matter of time—it remains to be seen how quickly it will happen.
- bri3d 9y ago
  ICE still have a decent amount of efficiency headroom, so range and operational cost will continue to improve if auto and truck makers choose to spend the 80% investment to squeeze the last 20% out. Automakers seem pretty split - some are building initiatives to go full electric while others are focused on the ICE endgame. We'll see what large equipment and truck manufacturers do but I think the time horizon is quite long.
  - MrFoof 9y ago
    Indeed. For plain-jane passenger vehicles, Toyota is rolling out new engines with a different stroke-to-bore ratio, and a wider angle between the intake and exhaust valves to speed up combustion. With some changes to ancillaries they've increased thermal efficiency from 35% to 40% (41% in hybrid vehicles). Mazda (of which Toyota has a fair stake) is rolling out their second generation SkyActiv which uses spark controlled compression ignition (SPCCI), in conjunction with a lean supercharger, to switch between spark ignition and compression ignition based on engine load. They've not thrown out a thermal efficiency number, but it's likely in the ballpark of 43-45%. They're targeting 56% thermal efficiency for the third generation of the tech, which is already well into its development, and we'll see sometime after 2021. The current benchmark is Mercedes' Formula 1 engines, which are 50% thermally efficient, but understandably cost an arm and a leg. This is excluding other things like Koenigsegg's FreeValve which uses pneumatic-hydraulic-electronic actuators (PHEA) to replace the camshaft. The only licensee so far is the Chinese manufacturer Qoros, which is a shame as Koenigsegg got pretty significant adoption of their FlexFuel tech by GM, Ford and Chrysler in the US (> 17 million vehicles sold).
- ant6n 9y ago
  A concern of EVs is also the weight of the fuel, which is a significant fraction of the overall vehicle weight.
  - ilovecars2 9y ago
    The weight is substantial. The Lithium-ion packs in the Model S, for example, weighs over 500KG. One of the largest engines in a current production car, the Dodge 8.4L V10, is 42% lighter. Smaller turbo petrols weigh just a fraction of that. (I am comparing just the weights of the power plants, not the power plant + drivetrain which would include gearboxes, differentials and electric motors).
6t6t6t6 9y ago
I am not saying that they are buying them for just that, but the PR value of this operation is probably worth a big percentage of the cost of the trucks.
- jimmyweee 9y ago
  Probably more a proof of concept than PR function. Stress testing these trucks will lend great insight into their practicality.
  - lhuser123 9y ago
    Exactly. Like How many mechanical and electrical problems will develop a year from now ? Two years ? It’s very different to carry 80,000 lbs for a few test rides than everyday for years.
JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> Fedex has 14,500 trucks [0]. That will put tesla's at .13% of the fleet Do we know what fraction of FedEx’s annual truck purchasing this order represents? Fraction of flow is a leading indicator fraction of stock (which you helpfully provided) [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_and_flow https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_and_flow

by mrep 9y ago

thaumaturgy 9y ago

Sure, but you wouldn't expect FedEx to replace their entire fleet this year. A somewhat more meaningful number is how many new FedEx freight trucks will be built by Tesla over the next year. And UPS has placed an order for 125 of them (https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/tesla-semi-electric-truck-order-fedex/ https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/tesla-semi-electric-truck-ord...) as well. You're right that this isn't going to radically transform the country's freight fleet overnight, but I think it's a signal that these companies are willing to switch to EV technology if it works. The next hurdle now seems to be Tesla's ability to execute.

thewhitetulip 9y ago
Few things transform overnight, most of them take time.

rawrmaan 9y ago

Fair point, but you have to take this development in context. EVs technologically outpace ICE vehicles on every axis other than refuel time, upfront cost and range. EVs can improve on all of these metrics, whereas ICE vehicles cannot. Therefore a complete switch is only a matter of time—it remains to be seen how quickly it will happen.

bri3d 9y ago
ICE still have a decent amount of efficiency headroom, so range and operational cost will continue to improve if auto and truck makers choose to spend the 80% investment to squeeze the last 20% out. Automakers seem pretty split - some are building initiatives to go full electric while others are focused on the ICE endgame. We'll see what large equipment and truck manufacturers do but I think the time horizon is quite long.
- MrFoof 9y ago
  Indeed. For plain-jane passenger vehicles, Toyota is rolling out new engines with a different stroke-to-bore ratio, and a wider angle between the intake and exhaust valves to speed up combustion. With some changes to ancillaries they've increased thermal efficiency from 35% to 40% (41% in hybrid vehicles). Mazda (of which Toyota has a fair stake) is rolling out their second generation SkyActiv which uses spark controlled compression ignition (SPCCI), in conjunction with a lean supercharger, to switch between spark ignition and compression ignition based on engine load. They've not thrown out a thermal efficiency number, but it's likely in the ballpark of 43-45%. They're targeting 56% thermal efficiency for the third generation of the tech, which is already well into its development, and we'll see sometime after 2021. The current benchmark is Mercedes' Formula 1 engines, which are 50% thermally efficient, but understandably cost an arm and a leg. This is excluding other things like Koenigsegg's FreeValve which uses pneumatic-hydraulic-electronic actuators (PHEA) to replace the camshaft. The only licensee so far is the Chinese manufacturer Qoros, which is a shame as Koenigsegg got pretty significant adoption of their FlexFuel tech by GM, Ford and Chrysler in the US (> 17 million vehicles sold).
ant6n 9y ago
A concern of EVs is also the weight of the fuel, which is a significant fraction of the overall vehicle weight.
- ilovecars2 9y ago
  The weight is substantial. The Lithium-ion packs in the Model S, for example, weighs over 500KG. One of the largest engines in a current production car, the Dodge 8.4L V10, is 42% lighter. Smaller turbo petrols weigh just a fraction of that. (I am comparing just the weights of the power plants, not the power plant + drivetrain which would include gearboxes, differentials and electric motors).

6t6t6t6 9y ago

I am not saying that they are buying them for just that, but the PR value of this operation is probably worth a big percentage of the cost of the trucks.

jimmyweee 9y ago
Probably more a proof of concept than PR function. Stress testing these trucks will lend great insight into their practicality.
- lhuser123 9y ago
  Exactly. Like How many mechanical and electrical problems will develop a year from now ? Two years ? It’s very different to carry 80,000 lbs for a few test rides than everyday for years.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

> Fedex has 14,500 trucks [0]. That will put tesla's at .13% of the fleet Do we know what fraction of FedEx’s annual truck purchasing this order represents? Fraction of flow is a leading indicator fraction of stock (which you helpfully provided) [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_and_flow https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_and_flow