3 ms·

All young people are on FB, they may additionally be on something else (probably Instagram which is also FB and starving out Snap) - the default remains Faceboo

All young people are on FB, they may additionally be on something else (probably Instagram which is also FB and starving out Snap) - the default remains Facebook. I'd bet against you. The trajectory is fine and Zuckerberg is a good CEO. They have nearly a third of the earth as users and a ridiculously high percentage of internet users. Given a long enough time horizon any company is vulnerable, but FB is here to stay for a long while.

varrock 9y ago
I've always attributed Facebook's success with older generations to the feeling you get when somebody you're talking to brings up a name you hadn't heard in numerous years, and here's why. Let's first think about the demographic that has kept Facebook afloat; Baby Boomers and Generation X. When you think about most of these individuals, they graduated high school and college without much there to remind them of individuals they were acquainted with, minus maybe their yearbooks from high school. Sure, most probably wrote or emailed their close friends, but we're talking about those afterthought individuals that they came into contact with under specific circumstances that generated that "acquaintance" classification. Then, all of a sudden, appears Facebook, a platform that allows these individuals to link their name with their school. It's a database at their fingertips with all of their classmates with up-to-date pictures, life stories, and mutual friends to explore. Facebook is that one "person" I referenced earlier; the person that brings up that name you hadn't thought about for years, except now you can actually explore what they are up to, and Facebook continuously reminds people of those afterthought names. The question is, how long is this effect going to sustain Facebook's competitive advantage? Like people have mentioned, there was Whitepages, now there is Facebook, but what's next?
Retric 9y ago
Logging in once a year is meaningless from a network effect standpoint. They might have an account and even use it to talk with grandparents, but without daily use FB has little pull.
- fossuser 9y ago
  They have over two billion monthly active users - not sure the DAU stat, but hundreds of millions would not surprise me.
  - MarkMc 9y ago
    Not sure why you were downvoted. Their daily user count is 1.4 billion: https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-dau/#0 https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...
    - fossuser 9y ago
      I think I was downvoted because this has become some sort of tribal identity issue.
tenpies 9y ago
With time, Facebook is becoming the white pages[1]. Sure, people have profiles there, but just like the white pages, it's entirely passive and something that's there because you forgot to opt out. That publication barely exists now, but there was a time when it was the place to advertise. --- [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephone_directory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephone_directory
brrrrr 9y ago
Having one third of the earth’s population touch your site at least once won’t matter if you do nothing particularly useful. Facebook does almost nothing useful. It’s kind irritating to actually try to do anything with the user interface, since everything is slippery funnels. Whatever isn’t an inductive dark pattern is otherwise emotional blackmail. The options and settings provided to the user don’t make sense, and are all defaulted to the worst choices imaginable.
- hsljekskfh 9y ago
  i hate facebook but this is an exaggeration. every social network has 60% overlap in features and it's pretty hard to say that fb is uniquely useless
is_true 9y ago
The young people I know is now on Snapchat or Instagram. Fb is now the place for adult people. WhatsApp doesn't have this problem. It's hard to monetize with ads but it's a data goldmine.
Johnny555 9y ago
All young people are on FB Are they? My young teenaged (age 13-17) nieces/nephews have no FB presence at all. Their older siblings were on FB all the time at that age and still have FB pages, but are no longer very active - they mainly use FB to comment on their parents and other relatives pages. While this is purely anecdotal, FB does seem to be losing young users: https://www.inc.com/zoe-henry/facebook-losing-users-faster-than-expected-2018.html https://www.inc.com/zoe-henry/facebook-losing-users-faster-t... If they are going to Instagram, then FB isn't really losing them, if they are going elsewhere, then it doesn't bode well for FB.

varrock 9y ago

I've always attributed Facebook's success with older generations to the feeling you get when somebody you're talking to brings up a name you hadn't heard in numerous years, and here's why. Let's first think about the demographic that has kept Facebook afloat; Baby Boomers and Generation X. When you think about most of these individuals, they graduated high school and college without much there to remind them of individuals they were acquainted with, minus maybe their yearbooks from high school. Sure, most probably wrote or emailed their close friends, but we're talking about those afterthought individuals that they came into contact with under specific circumstances that generated that "acquaintance" classification. Then, all of a sudden, appears Facebook, a platform that allows these individuals to link their name with their school. It's a database at their fingertips with all of their classmates with up-to-date pictures, life stories, and mutual friends to explore. Facebook is that one "person" I referenced earlier; the person that brings up that name you hadn't thought about for years, except now you can actually explore what they are up to, and Facebook continuously reminds people of those afterthought names. The question is, how long is this effect going to sustain Facebook's competitive advantage? Like people have mentioned, there was Whitepages, now there is Facebook, but what's next?

Retric 9y ago

Logging in once a year is meaningless from a network effect standpoint. They might have an account and even use it to talk with grandparents, but without daily use FB has little pull.

fossuser 9y ago
They have over two billion monthly active users - not sure the DAU stat, but hundreds of millions would not surprise me.
- MarkMc 9y ago
  Not sure why you were downvoted. Their daily user count is 1.4 billion: https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-dau/#0 https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...
  - fossuser 9y ago
    I think I was downvoted because this has become some sort of tribal identity issue.

tenpies 9y ago

With time, Facebook is becoming the white pages[1]. Sure, people have profiles there, but just like the white pages, it's entirely passive and something that's there because you forgot to opt out. That publication barely exists now, but there was a time when it was the place to advertise. --- [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephone_directory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephone_directory

brrrrr 9y ago

Having one third of the earth’s population touch your site at least once won’t matter if you do nothing particularly useful. Facebook does almost nothing useful. It’s kind irritating to actually try to do anything with the user interface, since everything is slippery funnels. Whatever isn’t an inductive dark pattern is otherwise emotional blackmail. The options and settings provided to the user don’t make sense, and are all defaulted to the worst choices imaginable.

hsljekskfh 9y ago
i hate facebook but this is an exaggeration. every social network has 60% overlap in features and it's pretty hard to say that fb is uniquely useless

is_true 9y ago

The young people I know is now on Snapchat or Instagram. Fb is now the place for adult people. WhatsApp doesn't have this problem. It's hard to monetize with ads but it's a data goldmine.

Johnny555 9y ago

All young people are on FB Are they? My young teenaged (age 13-17) nieces/nephews have no FB presence at all. Their older siblings were on FB all the time at that age and still have FB pages, but are no longer very active - they mainly use FB to comment on their parents and other relatives pages. While this is purely anecdotal, FB does seem to be losing young users: https://www.inc.com/zoe-henry/facebook-losing-users-faster-than-expected-2018.html https://www.inc.com/zoe-henry/facebook-losing-users-faster-t... If they are going to Instagram, then FB isn't really losing them, if they are going elsewhere, then it doesn't bode well for FB.