4 ms·
Is this really the whole story? To be honest, I haven't gotten the read that "money is flowing back into the US". a few points. - Repatriation is one time. We
by existencebox 9y ago
Is this really the whole story? To be honest, I haven't gotten the read that "money is flowing back into the US". a few points.
- Repatriation is one time. We will likely continue to run a deficit, tariffs aside.
- I'm seeing increasing news that ex-us investing is being favored[0], and that some of our largest purchasers of treasury bonds are considering scaling back[1]. Meanwhile, the EU has been pushing more and more for ways to get "their cut" via taxes and fines, although long-term impact of this is largely TBD.
- Although you link re: low unemployment (accurately) this only tells half the story, as labor participation rate continues to be heavily depressed. (~61%) [2].
- Finally, I'd also like to rebutt the "money flowing into cheaper states" but am having a hard time finding articles on the data I'd want, namely that most of the investing I had heard was in low-employment highly-automated factories and datacenters. (From a purely logical standpoint, the hiring advantages in a high tech economy of concentrations of workers isn't going away any time soon, and housing prices, despite tax changes, seem to align with this, although that may take a while to see a shift) I could certainly reinforce the assertion that poor states aren't in a great situation by the trend of needing to cut back to 4 days of school in some places [3] (A topic I'm surprised hasn't gotten more attention on its own, tbh)
I think my takeaway from this would be that I'm not so confident we'll see wage inflation, at least not _nearly_ to the level to which housing is escalating. It'd depend on a ton of factors, including population concentration, wage vs housing increases, employment changes, and black swan events, so obviously I can't make a holistic statement, but the points I list above make me much more pessimistic that the environment we've seen over the last 20~ years will likely continue, including the long-term crash-based financial cycle.
[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/globalists-buck-u-s-index-fund-trend-idUSKBN1GZ1GS https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/glob...
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/china-officials-are-said-to-view-treasuries-as-less-attractive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/china-off...
[2] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
[3] http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/03/22/schools-in-rural-areas-shifting-toward-4-day-week.html http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/03/22/schools-in-rural-areas-...