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Most of what you are writing was true, like a year ago. Never forget that China develops at internet speeds. Here's an update as far as I can tell. Credit-card

by c1sc0 16y ago

Most of what you are writing was true, like a year ago. Never forget that China develops at internet speeds. Here's an update as far as I can tell. Credit-cards are very much existent right now, to the extent that I know people who got into nasty trouble with them. That's a thing of the last year or so. Overall credit is a lot easier to get now, which makes the real estate market feel pretty bubbly, but there does seem to be a never-ending demand for new property. First reason is that in the cities you don't marry without an appartment. Second reason is that people are still moving in from the countryside & those that get lucky end up in a position to buy after a few years. I thought Starbucks was 'out' and the Coffee Bean was 'in' last time I visited. Same story that happened with McDonalds a few years ago: a western brand gets popular just because it is 'new', then people realize that they are eating/drinking crap & come up with their own alternative. Ever noticed how western fast-food joints sinicize (is that a word) their menus? That's not about concessions to the chinese tastes, it's about survival. You're totally right on the copycat factor though & I actually think that's a great asset of chinese entrepreneurialism. It's a cut-throat world with lots of competition & they know how to stack the cards to their benefit. And why should they not? Unlike the western world they have a massive internal market to develop and cherry-picking 'the best from the west', then copying is a very valid strategy. There's lots of cash to be made in luxury products I think. Just like the Japanese developed a taste for expensive watches 2 decades ago, I see the same happening in China. Over here in Switzerland jewellers / watchmakers are now openly catering to the asian market. I was in Luzern last weekend and just for fun started looking at the customers in the watch shops: almost all asian faces. And that makes sense, because most of my Chinese relatives will smuggle back a multiple of the allowed $10K worth of watches/jewellery every single time they visit europe. And those people are by no means 'fuck-you' rich in the Chinese sense of the word.

mrtron 16y ago
Credit cards are in existence now, but what percentage of people own one and use it regularly? The credit limits they give you are laughable - like 80$ US. Like everything else you need to prepay to use it. I think you are discussing the fringe edge of China. Don't forget that there are a billion people there. A few rich folks are starting to get credit cards over the last YEAR. But imagine if 200 million middle class new customers get them this decade. The difficulty moving money out of the country is an interesting problem. It is no doubt feeding the bubble, as you suggest almost everyone of modest means manages to get a substantial amount of money out of the country regularly. It is also interesting to see the speed at which China develops. They build entire blocks of condo towers at once. They moved the steel factory of how many hundred thousand workers completely out of the city. Nowhere else has the liberty of wiping the old out and moving forward in the same way they do. It does seem that it does come with the perils of moving too fast and wiping out historical and natural progressions.

by c1sc0 16y ago

mrtron 16y ago

Credit cards are in existence now, but what percentage of people own one and use it regularly? The credit limits they give you are laughable - like 80$ US. Like everything else you need to prepay to use it. I think you are discussing the fringe edge of China. Don't forget that there are a billion people there. A few rich folks are starting to get credit cards over the last YEAR. But imagine if 200 million middle class new customers get them this decade. The difficulty moving money out of the country is an interesting problem. It is no doubt feeding the bubble, as you suggest almost everyone of modest means manages to get a substantial amount of money out of the country regularly. It is also interesting to see the speed at which China develops. They build entire blocks of condo towers at once. They moved the steel factory of how many hundred thousand workers completely out of the city. Nowhere else has the liberty of wiping the old out and moving forward in the same way they do. It does seem that it does come with the perils of moving too fast and wiping out historical and natural progressions.