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The problem with commodities like iron is they mean-revert. Iron ore traditionally sells for under 40 cents. It's over 160. There is a big price bubble, becaus
by wisty 16y ago
The problem with commodities like iron is they mean-revert.
Iron ore traditionally sells for under 40 cents. It's over 160. There is a big price bubble, because there was such a large spike in demand (thus a shortage, so customers bid the price up).
But if demand drops, those mining trucks can't just sit idle. They run 24 hours a day, whether they are raking in money or just eking out a profit. The same goes for the 2 mile trains, container ships, loaders, and so on. Quantities won't drop a lot, so price will, right down to the cost of production. Once it hits the cost of production, companies will start scrapping trucks, but that's a very bad way to lower quantities.
- nl 16y agoYes, this is a good point. But I don't think the demand is going to stop (for a significant period of time anyway). While the Chinese standard of living keeps increasing their domestic demand is going to keep increasing. If their standard of living stops increasing then you'd have to question the stability of their government. If that happens then the world economy is probably screwed anyway.