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I think the comparison is slightly unfair. eReader OS choice is a purely "cultural" decision in a literal sense. If they really wanted to, they could have put t
by netcan 9y ago
I think the comparison is slightly unfair. eReader OS choice is a purely "cultural" decision in a literal sense. If they really wanted to, they could have put two secret teams in two secret buildings. Doing what Tesla did, that costs serious money, carrying serious risk
In fairness, at least bmw has the i3 and that's better than most. Also, what he says is true. The i3 is crap cost performance. It's just the only thing on the market, and so it sells.
Tesla's plan was impressive in it's decisiveness. Start at the top of the price pyramid and work down as battery prices get cheaper. That way, you can be close enough to cost competitive and have a decent range at all times. Destroy the cliche of golf carts on freeways. Launch a car to space.
BMW (and everyone else) went straight for mass market cars. They're just expensive (about 2X) for their categories and had a craps range. Range just got better.
Still... between incentives, general interest and such they would inevitably sell some cars. A 100k car won't sell that many units either, so the strategy will sell roughly the same numbers at the same growth rate. The economics will get better when they do. You'll already have been making that model for years. profit. BMW want(ed?) to do this across models, and I suppose transition everything smoothly over a decade.
Anyway, a year or two probably won't make a difference to the big picture. Early mover doesn't get you that much in cars, it's not messaging apps or digital marketplaces. Most manufacturers seem willing to lose more tan that.
Tesla moved the needle. It took big risk. Very impressive. Imagine how much it would have cost if BMW had taken that risk and failed. They took the safer option, but the risk here was real. MS' risk aversion was all in their heads.
- reubenswartz 9y agoFor MSFT, I don't think it was risk aversion. As you note, they could have spent a relatively small sum to test it out. But that's not the way the culture worked. Creating a fully electric car is a bigger investment, but if they produced a limited edition high end vehicle, they would sell out and make money. (The i8 is something like ~$150K. There are other smaller volume vehicles with 6 figure price points in the line up that would support profitable electric variants.) I'm not saying they could just cut over the 3 series to electric right away, but I think the reason they haven't offered an electric option at the high end of the range, which would be faster than what they've got, with a great low center of gravity, is cultural, not economic.
- bewo001 9y agoGoing for the expensive toy niche of the market was really brilliant. Technological teething problems and high cost don't matter there as long as it is fun to drive. German car manufacturers used to advertise their hydrogen/ electric car experiments as 'green'; targeted at eco-conscious young people and young families. Neither of them had the money for those low-volume cars or could live with the constraints of low range and a sparse network of charging stations. So they concluded that there wasn't a market at all.