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>BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the boat. What boat? Are people going to stop buying cars in 2 years? We aren't talking about cellphon

>BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the boat. What boat? Are people going to stop buying cars in 2 years? We aren't talking about cellphones here, 2 years, or even 5 years is nothing in the automotive industry. The current 3-series is 6 years old and a good 3-4 years behind competitors and is still selling strong. Having a 2-3 years lead in this industry is literally less than half the lifecycle of a model.

odammit 9y ago
The boat that has all the $100k sales on it from people that don’t want to wait 2-3 years for a BMW. That boat. It’s red row boat in case you’re curious.
- richardknop 9y ago
  That boat is super niche. Numbers of $100k cars Tesla sells per year is very small and actually is not growing. So that boat is quite small and I don't see the issue for BMW. You have to remember Tesla is losing hundreds of millions of dollars, so clearly that boat is not going to get far until they can start making money. Even Elon Musk won't be able to raise big rounds of new capital indefinitely.
  - odammit 9y ago
    That super niche boat is in a fleet of boats that are killing off old businesses that are lagging behind. Sure BMW may be doing great today, but how long until they’re a Borders. I don’t agree with you, but I did use your golang auth project the other day. Good work! Thanks!
    - Fins 9y ago
      That would be the boat of early adopter people who are willing to pay top dollar for a car that, apart from Superchargers and a large screen is not on par with BMW and the like in things that actually matter to luxury car buyers, like build quality and comfort and handling? Actually, on build quality Tesla doesn't really compete with cars that are half the price. Does not seem to be a huge boat to me. Not that BMW couldn't screw it up before then, but they will need to try really hard to screw up.
      - odammit 9y ago
        Yeah so to my orginal point - I want a BMW, but I also want a fully electric vehicle. The later is more important to me.
        Fins 9y ago
        You'd just have to wait then... Also, BMW and Tesla operate and vastly different scales, and I am not sure there are enough people who consider electric more desirable (or feasible) than "a bimmer".
    - richardknop 9y ago
      >> That super niche boat is in a fleet of boats that are killing off old businesses that are lagging behind. Sure BMW may be doing great today, but how long until they’re a Borders. But is it killing businesses? At least from my European perspective I don't see VW, BMW, Daimler losing business to Tesla really, they seem to be doing fine (the only problems they are dealing with are of their own making like the emission scandal). In Asia I also don't see automakers like Toyota losing to Tesla at all. The moment Hong Kong stopped electric car subsidies the number of sold Teslas dropped to 0. Maybe your American perspective is different? Do you think US car companies like GM, Ford etc are losing badly to Tesla? Is Tesla so popular? I thought owning Tesla was something akin to owning Porsche of Ferrari, it is a status symbol for very small minority of wealthy people. But I don't see Tesla becoming mainstream car for middle classes any time soon.
- kalleboo 9y ago
  And then in 5 years when it's time for them to buy a new car and they're sick of the cheap plasticky interior of the Tesla, BMW will be there ready for them.

odammit 9y ago

The boat that has all the $100k sales on it from people that don’t want to wait 2-3 years for a BMW. That boat. It’s red row boat in case you’re curious.

richardknop 9y ago
That boat is super niche. Numbers of $100k cars Tesla sells per year is very small and actually is not growing. So that boat is quite small and I don't see the issue for BMW. You have to remember Tesla is losing hundreds of millions of dollars, so clearly that boat is not going to get far until they can start making money. Even Elon Musk won't be able to raise big rounds of new capital indefinitely.
- odammit 9y ago
  That super niche boat is in a fleet of boats that are killing off old businesses that are lagging behind. Sure BMW may be doing great today, but how long until they’re a Borders. I don’t agree with you, but I did use your golang auth project the other day. Good work! Thanks!
  - Fins 9y ago
    That would be the boat of early adopter people who are willing to pay top dollar for a car that, apart from Superchargers and a large screen is not on par with BMW and the like in things that actually matter to luxury car buyers, like build quality and comfort and handling? Actually, on build quality Tesla doesn't really compete with cars that are half the price. Does not seem to be a huge boat to me. Not that BMW couldn't screw it up before then, but they will need to try really hard to screw up.
    - odammit 9y ago
      Yeah so to my orginal point - I want a BMW, but I also want a fully electric vehicle. The later is more important to me.
      - Fins 9y ago
        You'd just have to wait then... Also, BMW and Tesla operate and vastly different scales, and I am not sure there are enough people who consider electric more desirable (or feasible) than "a bimmer".
  - richardknop 9y ago
    >> That super niche boat is in a fleet of boats that are killing off old businesses that are lagging behind. Sure BMW may be doing great today, but how long until they’re a Borders. But is it killing businesses? At least from my European perspective I don't see VW, BMW, Daimler losing business to Tesla really, they seem to be doing fine (the only problems they are dealing with are of their own making like the emission scandal). In Asia I also don't see automakers like Toyota losing to Tesla at all. The moment Hong Kong stopped electric car subsidies the number of sold Teslas dropped to 0. Maybe your American perspective is different? Do you think US car companies like GM, Ford etc are losing badly to Tesla? Is Tesla so popular? I thought owning Tesla was something akin to owning Porsche of Ferrari, it is a status symbol for very small minority of wealthy people. But I don't see Tesla becoming mainstream car for middle classes any time soon.
kalleboo 9y ago
And then in 5 years when it's time for them to buy a new car and they're sick of the cheap plasticky interior of the Tesla, BMW will be there ready for them.