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This is a whole lot of conjecture. Auto manufacturers were investing in alternative fuel way before Tesla came around. BMW lost some ground on electric because

This is a whole lot of conjecture. Auto manufacturers were investing in alternative fuel way before Tesla came around. BMW lost some ground on electric because they made a huge bet on hydrogen in the late 90s/early 2000s that didn’t pan out (which is too bad because it probably would have been better and easier to transition to). There will always be nostalgia for the “purity” and raw mechanical feel of older big gas engines, but car people tend to like better cars, regardless of tech. Gas engines are getting smaller across the board. Many of the newest hypercars incorporate electric motors, and they’ve been generally well received. I think what’s most likely is that they are right: they can’t reliably produce electric cars at scale that meet all of their requirements and customer expectations. Tesla is having trouble doing it, why wouldn’t BMW? Musk is charismatic and well liked. He is able to speculate wildly and miss deadlines with little consequence. I think BMW is right that they wouldn’t be given the same affordances by investors and consumers.

tzakrajs 9y ago
I wouldn't rule a hydrogen fuel cell revolution out yet. If humans develop technology that allows hydrogen fuel to be safely generated at the pumping station, then transportation costs for hydrogen fuel would be greatly reduced and thus the efficiency over batteries could be realized. I used this as my source for efficiencies: https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/toyota-elon-musk-fuel-cell-hydrogen/ https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/toyota-elon-musk-fuel-cell-hy...
- Pulcinella 9y ago
  I think the cifficulties with hydrogen FCs right now are: 1. Efficient production of Hydrogen at the pump station. 2. Storage of hydrogen in the vehicle. Even liquid hydrogen isn’t very dense and has a rather low energy per volume. 3. FC catalyst. I think right now FC catakysts require precious metal catalysts like platinum and palladium.
- blkhawk 9y ago
  Yes, only even the absolute best case for utilizing hydrogen takes more energy than for a battery powered system. I am talking physics here (I am discounting creating hydrogen from biomass or oil here for obvious reasons). And even if you solve that -somehow - a hydrogen car will always be more complex to build than an EV. Simply because you need the plumbing and storage at the very least.
- gepi79 9y ago
  I wonder why there is not more talk and research of other liquid fuels that are not as dangerous and inefficient as hydrogen gas. Example: Methanol or ethanol for flow batteries. https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2017/Q2/instantly-rechargeable-battery-could-change-the-future-of-electric-and-hybrid-automobiles.html https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2017/Q2/instantly-r...
- eip 9y ago
  > If humans develop technology that allows hydrogen fuel to be safely generated at the pumping station The technology to produce hydrogen from water at efficiencies far exceeding Faraday has been known since the 1970s. It was perfected in the 1990s. Toyota has been sitting on it for two decades. That's why they are still leaning towards fuel cells. Permanent batteries were also developed in the 1970s. They are currently in use by the military. The problem isn't technology and hasn't been for a long time. The problem is the international slavery system runs on oil and will for the foreseeable future.
  - tzakrajs 9y ago
    > The technology to produce hydrogen from water at efficiencies far exceeding I was talking about safety and locality of generating hydrogen fuel, and I am sure that whatever advance you are talking about from thirty years ago is captured in the numbers I referenced. > Permanent batteries were also developed in the 1970s. They are currently in use by the military. Neat, but not relevant to my assertion. > The problem isn't technology and hasn't been for a long time. So you are saying that the reason we can't have hydrogen safely generated in pumping stations is because Toyota has some sort of patent or other rights that restrict its use? > The problem is the international slavery system runs on oil and will for the foreseeable future. How is Toyota benefiting from oil over hydrogen fuel cell?
    - eip 9y ago
      > I was talking about safety and locality of generating hydrogen fuel Hydrogen can be produced on demand from water in a vehicle. > So you are saying that the reason we can't have hydrogen safely generated in pumping stations is because Toyota has some sort of patent or other rights that restrict its use? No. I am saying that any attempt to sell technology that would allow decentralized energy production is considered a threat to the stability of the international monetary (petro dollar / slavery) system and will be treated accordingly. > How is Toyota benefiting from oil over hydrogen fuel cell? They are not. But if they try to sell their water fuel tech their executives will be killed and their factories will be bombed to dust.
dd36 9y ago
https://electrek.co/2018/01/08/auto-executives-battery-electric-cars-fail-survey/ https://electrek.co/2018/01/08/auto-executives-battery-elect... It’s not all conjecture.
- mmalone 9y ago
  It looks like they’re saying that we’ll move to hydrogen fuel cells, not that we’ll stick with gasoline. That’s not really a bad thing.
  - stiGGG 9y ago
    Still believing that fuel cells might become the future in sometime is only an excuse for doing nothing atm in my opinion.
    - mmalone 9y ago
      What’s that opinion based on? Apparently 75% of auto execs have a different opinion. I just read the two posts in this thread and it seems the argument is that hydrogen is less efficient to produce and distribute? Well even if that’s true it shouldn’t matter. There’s plenty of clean energy available. Our goal should be to use clean energy, not necessarily to minimize energy use. The articles are then dismissive that the “only advantage” of fuel cells is energy transfer rate. That’s by far the biggest problem with electric. It’s a big deal. No major manufacturer is “doing nothing”. They’re all investing in electric. What’s wrong with investing in hydrogen, too? Either would be great and they both have pros & cons. I’d love to have both.
kmonsen 9y ago
At scale for profit, I'm sure BMW could do it at scale just not for profit. The statement say they do not want to scale up forth generation due to costs. It makes sense, but I hope it will not be too late.
reubenswartz 9y ago
Hydrogen is a different kind of ICE. They could imagine it. Electric was hard to imagine. I'm not even disagreeing with the main premise of the article-- there's no way BMW could shift the bulk of its production to electric right now. I'm just saying the could for some of the high(er?/est?) end vehicles that have low volume anyway, and they can charge ~$100K for the gas versions. Electric would be faster and have more cachet.
- Pulcinella 9y ago
  Hydrogen fuel cells are electric and electric wasnt hard to imagine. Electric cars have been around since the 1880s.
  - reubenswartz 9y ago
    Thanks for straightening me out on how the fuel cells work. I didn’t understand that.
- ComputerGuru 9y ago
  The first cars were electric. Electricity powering cars isn’t hard to to envision.
  - ptaipale 9y ago
    Not the "first cars". First machine-powered automobile was a steam engine (1769), first internal combustion engine car was running on hydrogen (1808), first gasoline-powered combustion engine came in 1870 and was installed to a cars well before Benz made his car in 1885, about the same time the first battery-electric car was made by Thomas Parker. But yes, there were many electric car models in the beginning of 1900's.
- greedo 9y ago
  Why would electric be hard to imagine? Any kid with a set of Hot Wheels new it could work. The problems 10-20 years ago still persist; range and recharge. Battery tech improves slowly compared to other tech.

tzakrajs 9y ago

I wouldn't rule a hydrogen fuel cell revolution out yet. If humans develop technology that allows hydrogen fuel to be safely generated at the pumping station, then transportation costs for hydrogen fuel would be greatly reduced and thus the efficiency over batteries could be realized. I used this as my source for efficiencies: https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/toyota-elon-musk-fuel-cell-hydrogen/ https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/toyota-elon-musk-fuel-cell-hy...

Pulcinella 9y ago
I think the cifficulties with hydrogen FCs right now are: 1. Efficient production of Hydrogen at the pump station. 2. Storage of hydrogen in the vehicle. Even liquid hydrogen isn’t very dense and has a rather low energy per volume. 3. FC catalyst. I think right now FC catakysts require precious metal catalysts like platinum and palladium.
blkhawk 9y ago
Yes, only even the absolute best case for utilizing hydrogen takes more energy than for a battery powered system. I am talking physics here (I am discounting creating hydrogen from biomass or oil here for obvious reasons). And even if you solve that -somehow - a hydrogen car will always be more complex to build than an EV. Simply because you need the plumbing and storage at the very least.
gepi79 9y ago
I wonder why there is not more talk and research of other liquid fuels that are not as dangerous and inefficient as hydrogen gas. Example: Methanol or ethanol for flow batteries. https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2017/Q2/instantly-rechargeable-battery-could-change-the-future-of-electric-and-hybrid-automobiles.html https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2017/Q2/instantly-r...
eip 9y ago
> If humans develop technology that allows hydrogen fuel to be safely generated at the pumping station The technology to produce hydrogen from water at efficiencies far exceeding Faraday has been known since the 1970s. It was perfected in the 1990s. Toyota has been sitting on it for two decades. That's why they are still leaning towards fuel cells. Permanent batteries were also developed in the 1970s. They are currently in use by the military. The problem isn't technology and hasn't been for a long time. The problem is the international slavery system runs on oil and will for the foreseeable future.
- tzakrajs 9y ago
  > The technology to produce hydrogen from water at efficiencies far exceeding I was talking about safety and locality of generating hydrogen fuel, and I am sure that whatever advance you are talking about from thirty years ago is captured in the numbers I referenced. > Permanent batteries were also developed in the 1970s. They are currently in use by the military. Neat, but not relevant to my assertion. > The problem isn't technology and hasn't been for a long time. So you are saying that the reason we can't have hydrogen safely generated in pumping stations is because Toyota has some sort of patent or other rights that restrict its use? > The problem is the international slavery system runs on oil and will for the foreseeable future. How is Toyota benefiting from oil over hydrogen fuel cell?
  - eip 9y ago
    > I was talking about safety and locality of generating hydrogen fuel Hydrogen can be produced on demand from water in a vehicle. > So you are saying that the reason we can't have hydrogen safely generated in pumping stations is because Toyota has some sort of patent or other rights that restrict its use? No. I am saying that any attempt to sell technology that would allow decentralized energy production is considered a threat to the stability of the international monetary (petro dollar / slavery) system and will be treated accordingly. > How is Toyota benefiting from oil over hydrogen fuel cell? They are not. But if they try to sell their water fuel tech their executives will be killed and their factories will be bombed to dust.

dd36 9y ago

https://electrek.co/2018/01/08/auto-executives-battery-electric-cars-fail-survey/ https://electrek.co/2018/01/08/auto-executives-battery-elect... It’s not all conjecture.

mmalone 9y ago
It looks like they’re saying that we’ll move to hydrogen fuel cells, not that we’ll stick with gasoline. That’s not really a bad thing.
- stiGGG 9y ago
  Still believing that fuel cells might become the future in sometime is only an excuse for doing nothing atm in my opinion.
  - mmalone 9y ago
    What’s that opinion based on? Apparently 75% of auto execs have a different opinion. I just read the two posts in this thread and it seems the argument is that hydrogen is less efficient to produce and distribute? Well even if that’s true it shouldn’t matter. There’s plenty of clean energy available. Our goal should be to use clean energy, not necessarily to minimize energy use. The articles are then dismissive that the “only advantage” of fuel cells is energy transfer rate. That’s by far the biggest problem with electric. It’s a big deal. No major manufacturer is “doing nothing”. They’re all investing in electric. What’s wrong with investing in hydrogen, too? Either would be great and they both have pros & cons. I’d love to have both.

kmonsen 9y ago

At scale for profit, I'm sure BMW could do it at scale just not for profit. The statement say they do not want to scale up forth generation due to costs. It makes sense, but I hope it will not be too late.

reubenswartz 9y ago

Hydrogen is a different kind of ICE. They could imagine it. Electric was hard to imagine. I'm not even disagreeing with the main premise of the article-- there's no way BMW could shift the bulk of its production to electric right now. I'm just saying the could for some of the high(er?/est?) end vehicles that have low volume anyway, and they can charge ~$100K for the gas versions. Electric would be faster and have more cachet.

Pulcinella 9y ago
Hydrogen fuel cells are electric and electric wasnt hard to imagine. Electric cars have been around since the 1880s.
- reubenswartz 9y ago
  Thanks for straightening me out on how the fuel cells work. I didn’t understand that.
ComputerGuru 9y ago
The first cars were electric. Electricity powering cars isn’t hard to to envision.
- ptaipale 9y ago
  Not the "first cars". First machine-powered automobile was a steam engine (1769), first internal combustion engine car was running on hydrogen (1808), first gasoline-powered combustion engine came in 1870 and was installed to a cars well before Benz made his car in 1885, about the same time the first battery-electric car was made by Thomas Parker. But yes, there were many electric car models in the beginning of 1900's.
greedo 9y ago
Why would electric be hard to imagine? Any kid with a set of Hot Wheels new it could work. The problems 10-20 years ago still persist; range and recharge. Battery tech improves slowly compared to other tech.