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Not sure that's relevant right now, since we're not in a recession?

by iooi 9y ago

riffic 9y ago
A recession started January 26, 2018. You weren't informed?
- EpicEng 9y ago
  The word "recession" has many definitions (depends on who you ask), but in the US we tend to defer to the NBER. >The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[1] GDP was up 2.6% last quarter[2], so no, we're not in a recession. A stock market dip does not a recession make. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#Definition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#Definition [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/26/business/economy/gdp-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/26/business/economy/gdp-econ...
  - dragonwriter 9y ago
    > GDP was up 2.5% last quarter, so no, we're not in a recession That both starts with a false premise and, more critically, is an invalid argument. First, the GDP grew at a 2.5% annualized rate last quarter (Q4 2017), it wasn't up 2.5%. Second, the definition you provide indicates that recession is normally visible in a set of variables, but not that it can be conclusively ruled out when it is not visible in one variable in that set. Third, and most critically, the condition of the economy last quarter doesn't tell you whether we are in a recession now, only, at best, whether we were last quarter.
  - riffic 9y ago
    >A stock market dip does not a recession make You're right, but it's a pretty good indicator. It's been 56 days since the DJIA's peak close of 26,616.71 Yesterday's close was 23,957.89 and there has been a sustained loss of 2658.82 in the time since. I'm not the NBER, but a dip lasting almost 2 months sure smells like the start of recession to me.
dragonwriter 9y ago
Recessions are usually identified by NBER long after they start (and sometimes after they are over.)

Not sure that's relevant right now, since we're not in a recession?

by iooi 9y ago

Not sure that's relevant right now, since we're not in a recession?

riffic 9y ago

A recession started January 26, 2018. You weren't informed?

EpicEng 9y ago
The word "recession" has many definitions (depends on who you ask), but in the US we tend to defer to the NBER. >The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[1] GDP was up 2.6% last quarter[2], so no, we're not in a recession. A stock market dip does not a recession make. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#Definition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#Definition [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/26/business/economy/gdp-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/26/business/economy/gdp-econ...
- dragonwriter 9y ago
  > GDP was up 2.5% last quarter, so no, we're not in a recession That both starts with a false premise and, more critically, is an invalid argument. First, the GDP grew at a 2.5% annualized rate last quarter (Q4 2017), it wasn't up 2.5%. Second, the definition you provide indicates that recession is normally visible in a set of variables, but not that it can be conclusively ruled out when it is not visible in one variable in that set. Third, and most critically, the condition of the economy last quarter doesn't tell you whether we are in a recession now, only, at best, whether we were last quarter.
- riffic 9y ago
  >A stock market dip does not a recession make You're right, but it's a pretty good indicator. It's been 56 days since the DJIA's peak close of 26,616.71 Yesterday's close was 23,957.89 and there has been a sustained loss of 2658.82 in the time since. I'm not the NBER, but a dip lasting almost 2 months sure smells like the start of recession to me.

dragonwriter 9y ago

Recessions are usually identified by NBER long after they start (and sometimes after they are over.)