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There are reports and indications that the Chinese leadership is 'okay', possibly even inviting of this move and may respond only lightly to save face. - Xi kn

by rrggrr 9y ago

There are reports and indications that the Chinese leadership is 'okay', possibly even inviting of this move and may respond only lightly to save face. - Xi knows the Chinese economy must rebalance for domestic reasons and that excess capacity must be shed. The US move provides Xi political cover and fallguy as the inevitable unfolds. - Chinese investors are eager to invest more in US assets and companies. Through the trade negotiations to come the US is likely to open its doors to greater Chinese investment as Chinese doors open to less or unrestricted investment from the US. This may take the form of sole US-owned investment, an end to technology transfers, or both. - Xi's power consolidation was widely reported as the product of ambition. The alternative explanation, and the one I favor, is the inevitable rebalancing of China's economy will necessarily cause some social and political instability - at all levels of the Chinese body politic. Whereas social and political pressure has forced policy retreats the past decade in China, Xi's new power suggests he'll enjoy the authority and longevity necessary to complete China's adjustment. Suggests only, a lot can go wrong. - China has much to do in supporting provincial governments, SOE, and other systemically important institutions. I don't think China has sufficient reserves in-place for a trade war, even if it were so inclined.

noetic_techy 9y ago
Hate to say it, but if this is the case its also the best possible outcome for Trump and a boon for his re-election. "I took on China and negotiated a new deal. Sure, it was painful at first, but it brought them to the table, and now we're much better off. American factories are open again." I have a sneaking suspicion Trump doesn't care if he wins re-election or not and could give a crap if tariffs lead to recession. It plays into his narrative and image well, and that's all he really cares about. If he were smart, he would play a card that Dan Carlin over at hardcore history hypothesized: The 1-term president. Basically, it can be summed up as: "I'm going to shake this system so far to the core, I may only be a 1-term president, but I don't care! It must be done." I think he much prefers the billionaire lifestyle to a presidential one anyways. He hates living in the "shabby" white house.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- fwgwgwgch 9y ago
  > if he's smart I bet you can do css better than him. Maybe you should run for the President and beat the favourite and favoured candidate next time ;)
  - fny 9y ago
    Trump isn't stupid unless you narrowly define intelligence as an IQ test. I'm in the many intelligences camp: to me, emotional, academic, and athletic intelligence are very real consequences of a lifetime spent in different domains. To me Trump has spent his entire lifetime building and selling himself as a brand. The substance never mattered. He just knows how to make people want to buy "Trump". From my perspective, his success in that realm is genius.
dahdum 9y ago
Where are you getting this information from? If trade negotiations opened up investment both ways, that would an enormous win for both parties, and certainly solidify Xi's rule .
- rdlecler1 9y ago
  It’s already solidified.
  - sunstone 9y ago
    Carved in stone.
howlingfantods 9y ago
Can you cite these reports and indications? How does economic rebalancing affect their ability to impose tariffs? How does wanting to invest in American companies influence China’s decision on tariffs, especially since the new tariffs restrict Chinese companies from investing in American companies. Why doesn’t China have sufficient reserves? Don’t they have the highest foreign exchange reserves of any country in the world?
covequja 9y ago
the reports are just 'face-saving'. China lost big here without a way to counteract. bad for the new dictator > Xi knows the Chinese economy must rebalance for domestic reasons China lacks the middle class to be able to absorb the rebalancing. > Chinese investors are eager to invest more in US assets and companies. CFIUS already rejected most of the intended Chinese government purchases of US companies via shell companies. > Xi's new power suggests he'll enjoy the authority and longevity necessary to complete China's adjustment Xi has been aiming for dictatorship ever since he came to power, under the guise of 'routing out corruption'. that was long before stock market collapse. It's good US is crippling this dictator's desire to grow any stronger. Look no further to the uigher concentration camps to see the fate that could befall any western countries around the world. > I don't think China has sufficient reserves in-place for a trade war Correct. They are a cash-flow economy. Any small decrease in cash flow will severely crash it.
- sunstone 9y ago
  Hey what's with the down votes to this comment? There's nothing stupid, derogatory or sarcastic here. You might not agree with the content but it states an opinion that many would agree with.
  - mr_spothawk 9y ago
    feels like opinion shaping to me. it’s been getting worse, and i’ve thought of an Ask HN type post to see if others notice similar trends
    - pc2g4d 9y ago
      Do you mean state-sponsored social media activity? The commenter's account was created within the last hour....
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    > " It's good US is crippling this dictator's desire to grow any stronger. Look no further to the uigher concentration camps to see the fate that could befall any western countries around the world." Fearmongering of the worst kind maybe?
jdonaldson 9y ago
- The Chinese economy, being almost totally under centralized control, has been in a state of imbalance for much of its existence. This situation is not special in that regard. - Chinese investors have a lot of restrictions, and if the government actually cared about this they would've relaxed some of the restrictions that don't have anything to do with the US - It is not necessary to transfer more power to Xi in order to complete some sort of "adjustment" for China. History does not suggest a lot of happy endings for this type of scenario.

by rrggrr 9y ago

noetic_techy 9y ago

Hate to say it, but if this is the case its also the best possible outcome for Trump and a boon for his re-election. "I took on China and negotiated a new deal. Sure, it was painful at first, but it brought them to the table, and now we're much better off. American factories are open again." I have a sneaking suspicion Trump doesn't care if he wins re-election or not and could give a crap if tariffs lead to recession. It plays into his narrative and image well, and that's all he really cares about. If he were smart, he would play a card that Dan Carlin over at hardcore history hypothesized: The 1-term president. Basically, it can be summed up as: "I'm going to shake this system so far to the core, I may only be a 1-term president, but I don't care! It must be done." I think he much prefers the billionaire lifestyle to a presidential one anyways. He hates living in the "shabby" white house.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
fwgwgwgch 9y ago
> if he's smart I bet you can do css better than him. Maybe you should run for the President and beat the favourite and favoured candidate next time ;)
- fny 9y ago
  Trump isn't stupid unless you narrowly define intelligence as an IQ test. I'm in the many intelligences camp: to me, emotional, academic, and athletic intelligence are very real consequences of a lifetime spent in different domains. To me Trump has spent his entire lifetime building and selling himself as a brand. The substance never mattered. He just knows how to make people want to buy "Trump". From my perspective, his success in that realm is genius.

dahdum 9y ago

Where are you getting this information from? If trade negotiations opened up investment both ways, that would an enormous win for both parties, and certainly solidify Xi's rule .

rdlecler1 9y ago
It’s already solidified.
- sunstone 9y ago
  Carved in stone.

howlingfantods 9y ago

Can you cite these reports and indications? How does economic rebalancing affect their ability to impose tariffs? How does wanting to invest in American companies influence China’s decision on tariffs, especially since the new tariffs restrict Chinese companies from investing in American companies. Why doesn’t China have sufficient reserves? Don’t they have the highest foreign exchange reserves of any country in the world?

covequja 9y ago

the reports are just 'face-saving'. China lost big here without a way to counteract. bad for the new dictator > Xi knows the Chinese economy must rebalance for domestic reasons China lacks the middle class to be able to absorb the rebalancing. > Chinese investors are eager to invest more in US assets and companies. CFIUS already rejected most of the intended Chinese government purchases of US companies via shell companies. > Xi's new power suggests he'll enjoy the authority and longevity necessary to complete China's adjustment Xi has been aiming for dictatorship ever since he came to power, under the guise of 'routing out corruption'. that was long before stock market collapse. It's good US is crippling this dictator's desire to grow any stronger. Look no further to the uigher concentration camps to see the fate that could befall any western countries around the world. > I don't think China has sufficient reserves in-place for a trade war Correct. They are a cash-flow economy. Any small decrease in cash flow will severely crash it.

sunstone 9y ago
Hey what's with the down votes to this comment? There's nothing stupid, derogatory or sarcastic here. You might not agree with the content but it states an opinion that many would agree with.
- mr_spothawk 9y ago
  feels like opinion shaping to me. it’s been getting worse, and i’ve thought of an Ask HN type post to see if others notice similar trends
  - pc2g4d 9y ago
    Do you mean state-sponsored social media activity? The commenter's account was created within the last hour....
- jacquesm 9y ago
  > " It's good US is crippling this dictator's desire to grow any stronger. Look no further to the uigher concentration camps to see the fate that could befall any western countries around the world." Fearmongering of the worst kind maybe?

jdonaldson 9y ago

- The Chinese economy, being almost totally under centralized control, has been in a state of imbalance for much of its existence. This situation is not special in that regard. - Chinese investors have a lot of restrictions, and if the government actually cared about this they would've relaxed some of the restrictions that don't have anything to do with the US - It is not necessary to transfer more power to Xi in order to complete some sort of "adjustment" for China. History does not suggest a lot of happy endings for this type of scenario.