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I am wondering if, after 2020, western countries would not need as many cars that they used to have. It feels like new generations do not own as many cars as t
by llsf 9y ago
I am wondering if, after 2020, western countries would not need as many cars that they used to have. It feels like new generations do not own as many cars as their parents. If self-driving are indeed coming soon, dropping the cost of transportation, then we might need less cars than we currently use (or not use as they are parked 95% of time, http://fortune.com/2016/03/13/cars-parked-95-percent-of-time/ http://fortune.com/2016/03/13/cars-parked-95-percent-of-time...).
So maybe a production of few million electric cars a year might be sufficient in 2020 ? It is 2 years from now, and with Tesla pushing, and giving the pace, the landscape could be very different from today. BMW might need to reassess their prediction then.
- adrianN 9y agoAfter 2020, western countries are probably not the biggest market for new cars.
- llsf 9y agoI agree, although not sure if the current main legacy car manufacturers (VW, BMW, GM, even Toyota) would necessarily be the leaders in non-western countries. They might be losing on both sides, the high-end electric vehicles (less volume, lower margin) and the cars needed for developing countries. Feels like, current car manufacturers have a lot to lose in the coming years...
- kalleboo 9y ago> It feels like new generations do not own as many cars as their parents This seems to be a myth, at least in the US https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-22/millennial-americans-are-moving-to-the-burbs-buying-big-suvs https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-22/millennia... https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/millennials-like-buying-cars-after-all.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/millennials-like-buying-cars...