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2 things about this. 1) if you are a fund you just cant' sit out 3 years. Your fund will shut down as everyone will yank their money,. if its your own money t

2 things about this. 1) if you are a fund you just cant' sit out 3 years. Your fund will shut down as everyone will yank their money,. if its your own money then people will leave as you won't pay bonuses. 2) If you went short in 2006 then you wouldn't have survived until teh crash of late 2008. > It's pretty easy to make way above average returns on the stock market. This is just an absurd statement along the lines of its easy to build a billion dollar company just mimic what all the other billion dollar companies do. Sorry for being so negative to your comment, but come on. That statement can't be seriously defended in any resonable manner.

ISL 9y ago
If you are Berkshire or Amazon, you can sit on cash or potential earnings for years, and investors can trust you with it. The keys are finding the right investors and demonstrably earning their trust.
- sumedh 9y ago
  > The keys are finding the right investors and demonstrably earning their trust Do you want to spend time finding the right investors or do you want to spend time reading 10Ks?
3pt14159 9y ago
The limitations of fund structuring aren’t my concern. I’ve been investing for decades and it’s trivial to beat the market if you’re patient and knowledgeable about tech. The fact that funds do worse than indexed etfs says more about fund incentives and investor savviness than it does about the effectiveness of this strategy.
- dumbass123 9y ago
  Ok. A fuck ton of metrics show the market is currently overvalued. Are you going to put on a short and just sit and wait? How much money might you be losing in the meantime? What's the opportunity cost of having your money sit there while it could be earning returns elsewhere? Last year equity index vol was ridiculously low. Tons of hedge funds held long volatility positions and kept rolling. Even with the events earlier this year, they still ended up down money on the position. If you really think investing off business cycles is long term profitable, you don't know what you're talking about.

ISL 9y ago

If you are Berkshire or Amazon, you can sit on cash or potential earnings for years, and investors can trust you with it. The keys are finding the right investors and demonstrably earning their trust.

sumedh 9y ago
> The keys are finding the right investors and demonstrably earning their trust Do you want to spend time finding the right investors or do you want to spend time reading 10Ks?

3pt14159 9y ago

The limitations of fund structuring aren’t my concern. I’ve been investing for decades and it’s trivial to beat the market if you’re patient and knowledgeable about tech. The fact that funds do worse than indexed etfs says more about fund incentives and investor savviness than it does about the effectiveness of this strategy.

dumbass123 9y ago
Ok. A fuck ton of metrics show the market is currently overvalued. Are you going to put on a short and just sit and wait? How much money might you be losing in the meantime? What's the opportunity cost of having your money sit there while it could be earning returns elsewhere? Last year equity index vol was ridiculously low. Tons of hedge funds held long volatility positions and kept rolling. Even with the events earlier this year, they still ended up down money on the position. If you really think investing off business cycles is long term profitable, you don't know what you're talking about.