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What will happen to all of the people whose jobs depend on caring for horses when horses are no longer our primary mode of transportation? We don't have basic i

What will happen to all of the people whose jobs depend on caring for horses when horses are no longer our primary mode of transportation? We don't have basic income yet! What will happen next?

chrischen 9y ago
According to grandparent, we should keep horses around so people have jobs to care for them, since not everyone can be a car mechanical engineer.
ethbro 9y ago
The difference is that the horse phase out occurred over several decades. Mass automobile production started around 1900. Substantial portion of the Wehrmacht logistics chain still utilized horses in the 1940s. With a properly run automation program, an entire category of jobs can be eliminated in < 1 year now. It's time we stop ignoring two things: (1) the pace of technological employment disruption is increasing (in speed, if scale is debatable), (2) the time for an employee to reskill is > 0. Trump was elected on neo-liberal economics failing to compassionately account for the consequences of and requirements for frictional unemployment (moving from one job to another). It'd be nice not to make the same mistake again.
- pj_mukh 9y ago
  "With a properly run automation program, an entire category of jobs can be eliminated in < 1 year now" That seems..not right. Robotics companies like Bossa Nova have been at this since 2006-2010. That's a good 8-15 years and multiple changes in political offices. Even still I think its a decade till we see any effect on the labour market. We still have time to act....for now.
  - ethbro 9y ago
    I'm not just talking about hard robotics. For context, I've been a blazing sword through 100+ person offshore teams with projects that took a month to build. :/
    - ggg9990 9y ago
      In what space? What types of jobs?
      - ethbro 9y ago
        Software automation / ML. Customers are usually any sufficiently large enterprise client. Typically back office jobs. E.g. "the stuff that accounting has to do every month to keep the company operating" or "half of your call center workload"

What will happen to all of the people whose jobs depend on caring for horses when horses are no longer our primary mode of transportation? We don't have basic income yet! What will happen next?

chrischen 9y ago

According to grandparent, we should keep horses around so people have jobs to care for them, since not everyone can be a car mechanical engineer.

ethbro 9y ago

The difference is that the horse phase out occurred over several decades. Mass automobile production started around 1900. Substantial portion of the Wehrmacht logistics chain still utilized horses in the 1940s. With a properly run automation program, an entire category of jobs can be eliminated in < 1 year now. It's time we stop ignoring two things: (1) the pace of technological employment disruption is increasing (in speed, if scale is debatable), (2) the time for an employee to reskill is > 0. Trump was elected on neo-liberal economics failing to compassionately account for the consequences of and requirements for frictional unemployment (moving from one job to another). It'd be nice not to make the same mistake again.

pj_mukh 9y ago
"With a properly run automation program, an entire category of jobs can be eliminated in < 1 year now" That seems..not right. Robotics companies like Bossa Nova have been at this since 2006-2010. That's a good 8-15 years and multiple changes in political offices. Even still I think its a decade till we see any effect on the labour market. We still have time to act....for now.
- ethbro 9y ago
  I'm not just talking about hard robotics. For context, I've been a blazing sword through 100+ person offshore teams with projects that took a month to build. :/
  - ggg9990 9y ago
    In what space? What types of jobs?
    - ethbro 9y ago
      Software automation / ML. Customers are usually any sufficiently large enterprise client. Typically back office jobs. E.g. "the stuff that accounting has to do every month to keep the company operating" or "half of your call center workload"