Usually when an expert prediction is wrong I'm fairly ambivalent because I wouldn't know what to say either, and hey they can't all be right at the same time. B

Usually when an expert prediction is wrong I'm fairly ambivalent because I wouldn't know what to say either, and hey they can't all be right at the same time. But in this case it contradicts my own observations and gut feeling about the iPhone from when it was first demo'd (reinforced when I got my hands on one). Sometimes folks instincts are just so off about things it amazes me. I think it happens in other walks of life too, like music critics who totally fail to detect hits on a new album. I don't like the word 'overthinking' but there definitely is some sort of phenomenon whereby experts become blind to the obvious.