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I think it's important to have a bit of perspective on this graph. While it includes the tail end of "the bubble", the vast majority of this graph documents a
by mikekchar 9y ago
I think it's important to have a bit of perspective on this graph. While it includes the tail end of "the bubble", the vast majority of this graph documents a time that is pretty difficult to compare with any major city. After the bubble, real estate prices lost up to 80% of their value. It slowly crept back up and in the early 2000s there were signs of vigorous recovery, but in 2006 when the government saw prices going up again, they restricted loans. This stabilised prices. In the last decade, while the prices have gone up and down, the price index now is practically the same as it was in 2010.
There are a couple of other important factors. Between 1988 and 2013 (the part documented by the graph), the population of the country grew by only 5 million people. Tokyo's population grew from about 11 million to about 13 million in that time -- so it absorbed almost half of the total population increase of the entire country. Although I haven't looked, I'm willing to bet that Osaka absorbed the other half. So it's quite a bit easier to focus the government when all of your growth is in the same place.
Furthermore, if we look at the population increase and compare that to the household increases in the graph, something is pretty apparent. Population increased by 2 million and households increased by 2 million. What that means is that Tokyo was overcrowded in 1988, with large numbers of people living in the same household. As new residences became available, they spread out. It's especially important to understand that in the early nineties, prices were getting cheaper, so that made it easier for people to move.
So while building new residences is important, there are a whole host of other factors that led to Tokyo's success in this regard. Personally, I think the resolve to avoid real estate bubbles, even at the cost of economic growth is huge. One last thing I really need to point out because it's confusing for people who don't live in Japan: "Tokyo" usually refers to the prefecture of Tokyo, not just the city. There are parts of Tokyo prefecture that are decidedly rural, so it is doubly difficult to compare it with cities in other countries.
- eecsninja 9y agoIf you want more data, see the chart in this article (sometimes behind paywall, so I'm linking archived version): http://archive.is/oXNHv http://archive.is/oXNHv The chart shows a comparison of increase in population vs increase in price, for four regions: San Francisco, London, "Tokyo", and the central district of Minato-ku. While the first three are vaguely defined since they could be either city limits or metropolitan areas, there is no such uncertainty about Minato-ku. Minato had a much larger percentage population increase than SF or London but a much smaller percentage price increase.