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I really enjoyed this article. Only after discovering Critical Chain project management did I discover the benefits of moving away from point estimates on softw

I really enjoyed this article. Only after discovering Critical Chain project management did I discover the benefits of moving away from point estimates on software projects. Or just about any project where life, limb or financial ruin isn't at stake. I'm constantly asking people to estimate the probability associated with whatever commitment they're making. Not as in "Give me a number." but simply "Is it very likely, somewhat likely, not likely at all", etc. I'm curious to know how they arrived at the 80% interval and whether that degree of certainty is optimal. One could argue that 50% would be a better choice if the goal is to improve one's ability to forecast.

eropple 9y ago
In my first job out of college I was regularly asked not for point estimates, but for time based LOE estimates. As a junior engineer. My inability to do so honestly based on a lack of information was my first point of big, me-versus-management friction. Eventually we compromised to confidence intervals, which TBH I think provided more and better information and a few other developers eventually picked up using. I wasn't going to commit myself to a hard number if it wasn't life-or-death stuff. The company (and no company since) was worth that.
anotheryou 9y ago
I also wondered where the 80 comes from. I further wondered if throwing in a point estimate as well makes sense. For things that are along the lines of "definitely X, but the sky is the limit. Well probably closer to the lower bound."