From the outset when you take your cards you have a 2 in 10 (20%) chance of having the prize. The dealer has a 8 in 10 (80%) chance of having it. After the deal

From the outset when you take your cards you have a 2 in 10 (20%) chance of having the prize. The dealer has a 8 in 10 (80%) chance of having it. After the dealer looks at and discards six cards it is still a 8 in 10 (80%) chance. I would trade my 20% chance for a 50/50 shot on the 80% chance which is 40%. It's a good variation on the problem though. The thing is that the Monty Hall problem gets less intuitive when you deal with smaller numbers. When you're dealing with 10 cards you feel like you probably don't have it to begin with. When it's 1 in 3, you feel like you're closer.