5 ms·

While I also prefer to be an optimist in such matters, I never quite get the "we are so resourceful" reaction. Yes, a couple of times in history we (I mean eart

by Tichy 16y ago

While I also prefer to be an optimist in such matters, I never quite get the "we are so resourceful" reaction. Yes, a couple of times in history we (I mean earth, humans, as I am not from the US) have been lucky, and some looming crisis was averted. A lot of other times things didn't go so well. History is full of civilizations collapsing, wars, famines and so on. There is not always some genius at hand who invents a wonderful rescue device (as apparently with the agricultural revolution last century). Personally, I used to hate cars and everything oil related. So I am the first who would welcome it if the economy would run on sustainable alternative energy. But I think oil is ultimately simply this: free energy. It is as if somebody gave your country several trillions of dollars (without inflation). So if you take that away, you suddenly have several trillions of dollars less (or more, just picked a random number here). You can not simply replace them, they are missing from the equation completely. So overall, you will be that much poorer, with all the consequences. Sure, you can build other things, but it will take time.

Mz 16y ago
Yes, a couple of times in history we (I mean earth, humans, as I am not from the US) have been lucky, and some looming crisis was averted. We avert stuff every day. It's just not "news" so you don't much hear about it. ("News" generally involves dirty laundry of some sort, not good outcomes.) When we had some huge earthquake in the East, it was News. When the world rose to the occasion and averted hundreds of thousands of expected additional deaths from famine and disease in the aftermath, big yawn. Moving on. Has Hollywood got some juicy scandal for us? When Iraq set fire to the oil wells as it was leaving Kuwait, Big News. When the entire world converged upon Kuwait with every available crack team for putting out such things and invented new methods on the spot to kill the fires in a much shorter time frame than was predicted, big yawn. Moving on. Can we come up with some juicy gossip from somewhere? When the desert bloomed like no one had seen in decades (if ever) from all the water and carbon in the aftermath of the fires and attempts to put them out, also hardly mentioned. Y2K also was a huge anticlimactic non-event after years of people getting ready for a global meltdown of our banking infrastructure...etc... I've been talking about Peak Oil for years. I think it is a serious issue. But I'm an optimist and I think we can adapt. It doesn't have to be some nightmare scenario. It will only turn into that if we engage in too much denial and foot dragging and resistance to change. Peace.
- Tichy 16y ago
  You are talking about temporary natural catastrophes, though, not the kind of disasters that develop slowly. Also, a huge percentage of earth's population is living in squalor right now. How come nobody miraculously copes with that?
  - Mz 16y ago
    You are talking about temporary natural catastrophes, though, not the kind of disasters that develop slowly. It's easier to give examples of that which people can readily see. For a "slower" problem, how about the general trend that people are living longer? IIRC, when social security was invented in the US (which you qualify for after age 65), the average life expectancy here was 67. It was intended to make life easier for folks in extreme old age. Now this country is in crisis trying to figure out how to deal with the fallout from supporting people for decades when it was only designed to do so for a couple of years. Also, the last statistics I heard on bankruptcy in the US is that more than half of all bankruptcies here are due to high medical bills. Bankruptcy in the US is generally chalked up to "irresponsible behavior". In reality, it is more often due to devotedly doing whatever it takes to try to save the life of a loved one. Then there is cystic fibrosis. The life expectancy in recent decades has gone from age 18 to age 37-ish. As for people living in squalor: The US definition of poverty routinely places 12-14% of the US population under the poverty line. But one study I read indicated that less than 1/2% of Americans qualified as "poor" by the standards of India when measured not by income but by things like "number of meals eaten per day" and whether or not they had a roof over their head. Plus I currently live with zero furniture and no car and generally few possessions. I'm happy this way and healthier than when I had the stereotypical American lifestyle of affluenza. So I am not sure what you mean by "a huge percentage ...living in squalor". Perhaps you would like to clarify what standard you think "everyone" should live by? Given that giving up my possessions has been a keystone to getting healthier, I have my skepticism about (and objections to) ideas that material wealth is a terribly important measure of quality of life. Thanks.
    - anamax 16y ago
      > Also, the last statistics I heard on bankruptcy in the US is that more than half of all bankruptcies here are due to high medical bills. Actually, it's not. The bulk of the so-called "medical bankruptcies" were due to job loss due to being sick or addicted, aka "if you can't work, you're not going to be paid". (And gambling is considered medical....) Yes, those folks have medical bills, but free medical care wouldn't have kept them employed. FWIW, there is universal free medical care in the US. It isn't as good as paid and you get to wait in the medical equivalent of the social security office, but it exists. There are free clinics in every reasonably-sized city and all but the most uninhabited counties have a county hospital which treats people for free. And then there's medicaid and the state analogs.

by Tichy 16y ago

Mz 16y ago

Yes, a couple of times in history we (I mean earth, humans, as I am not from the US) have been lucky, and some looming crisis was averted. We avert stuff every day. It's just not "news" so you don't much hear about it. ("News" generally involves dirty laundry of some sort, not good outcomes.) When we had some huge earthquake in the East, it was News. When the world rose to the occasion and averted hundreds of thousands of expected additional deaths from famine and disease in the aftermath, big yawn. Moving on. Has Hollywood got some juicy scandal for us? When Iraq set fire to the oil wells as it was leaving Kuwait, Big News. When the entire world converged upon Kuwait with every available crack team for putting out such things and invented new methods on the spot to kill the fires in a much shorter time frame than was predicted, big yawn. Moving on. Can we come up with some juicy gossip from somewhere? When the desert bloomed like no one had seen in decades (if ever) from all the water and carbon in the aftermath of the fires and attempts to put them out, also hardly mentioned. Y2K also was a huge anticlimactic non-event after years of people getting ready for a global meltdown of our banking infrastructure...etc... I've been talking about Peak Oil for years. I think it is a serious issue. But I'm an optimist and I think we can adapt. It doesn't have to be some nightmare scenario. It will only turn into that if we engage in too much denial and foot dragging and resistance to change. Peace.

Tichy 16y ago
You are talking about temporary natural catastrophes, though, not the kind of disasters that develop slowly. Also, a huge percentage of earth's population is living in squalor right now. How come nobody miraculously copes with that?
- Mz 16y ago
  You are talking about temporary natural catastrophes, though, not the kind of disasters that develop slowly. It's easier to give examples of that which people can readily see. For a "slower" problem, how about the general trend that people are living longer? IIRC, when social security was invented in the US (which you qualify for after age 65), the average life expectancy here was 67. It was intended to make life easier for folks in extreme old age. Now this country is in crisis trying to figure out how to deal with the fallout from supporting people for decades when it was only designed to do so for a couple of years. Also, the last statistics I heard on bankruptcy in the US is that more than half of all bankruptcies here are due to high medical bills. Bankruptcy in the US is generally chalked up to "irresponsible behavior". In reality, it is more often due to devotedly doing whatever it takes to try to save the life of a loved one. Then there is cystic fibrosis. The life expectancy in recent decades has gone from age 18 to age 37-ish. As for people living in squalor: The US definition of poverty routinely places 12-14% of the US population under the poverty line. But one study I read indicated that less than 1/2% of Americans qualified as "poor" by the standards of India when measured not by income but by things like "number of meals eaten per day" and whether or not they had a roof over their head. Plus I currently live with zero furniture and no car and generally few possessions. I'm happy this way and healthier than when I had the stereotypical American lifestyle of affluenza. So I am not sure what you mean by "a huge percentage ...living in squalor". Perhaps you would like to clarify what standard you think "everyone" should live by? Given that giving up my possessions has been a keystone to getting healthier, I have my skepticism about (and objections to) ideas that material wealth is a terribly important measure of quality of life. Thanks.
  - anamax 16y ago
    > Also, the last statistics I heard on bankruptcy in the US is that more than half of all bankruptcies here are due to high medical bills. Actually, it's not. The bulk of the so-called "medical bankruptcies" were due to job loss due to being sick or addicted, aka "if you can't work, you're not going to be paid". (And gambling is considered medical....) Yes, those folks have medical bills, but free medical care wouldn't have kept them employed. FWIW, there is universal free medical care in the US. It isn't as good as paid and you get to wait in the medical equivalent of the social security office, but it exists. There are free clinics in every reasonably-sized city and all but the most uninhabited counties have a county hospital which treats people for free. And then there's medicaid and the state analogs.