5 ms·

if we wait for the gov to set up a certification for this, we'll delay the whole industry 10 years.

by scdc 9y ago

xtian 9y ago
And?
- megy 9y ago
  Cost 1000s if not millions of lives. You understand over a million people die every year due driving? They system is not working.
  - danso 9y ago
    A "million" people do not die in the U.S. every year from driving. Not even close: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... Not that 37,000+ is a great number, but I don't think many of the detractors here are arguing that Uber et. al have a perfect record. Just that it's possible that progress is being made in a more reckless way than necessary. Just because space flight is inherently difficult and risky and ambitious doesn't mean we don't investigate the possibly preventable factors behind the Challenger disaster. edit: You seem to be referencing the worldwide estimate. Fair, but we're not even close to having self-driven cars in the most afflicted countries. Nevermind AI, we're not even close to having clean potable water worldwide, and diarrhea-related deaths outnumber road accident deaths according to WHO: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/
    - tim333 9y ago
      Yeah but the tech will spread there fairly soon after it's established in the US. In places like Africa the most common cars are not some African brand, they seem to mostly be Toyotas, who will probably implement self driving when it's proven.
      - portofcall 9y ago
        For what value of “soon after” is very expensive automation going to reach Africa, India, and other places in numbers sufficient to put a dent in those fatalities? The slow march of other tech, safety included, suggests decades. Meanwhile the safety gains of automation are so far hypothetical, amd until they’re well demonstrated, potentially a distant pipe dream. Nothing about ML/AI today suggests a near-future of ultra-safe cars.
  - mykull 9y ago
    Wow, let's just put people in bubble suits so they don't hurt themselves. It's ridiculous to say people shouldn't drive cars because it's possible to hurt themselves or others. We might as well outlaw pregnancy for all the harm that can come to people as a result of being born.
chimeracoder 9y ago
> if we wait for the gov to set up a certification for this, we'll delay the whole industry 10 years. That's not a particularly convincing argument, given that (so far), Uber's self-driving cars have a fatality rate of 50 times the baseline, per mile driven[0]. Having to wait an extra ten years to make sure that everything is done properly doesn't sound like the worst price to pay. [0] Nationwide, we have 1.25 deaths per 100 million miles driven. Uber's only driven about 2 million miles so far: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bizcarson/2017/12/22/ubers-self-driving-cars-2-million-miles https://www.forbes.com/sites/bizcarson/2017/12/22/ubers-self...
- wnoise 9y ago
  Under 50 times. Still horrible, of course. https://www.androidheadlines.com/2017/12/ubers-autonomous-vehicles-surpass-2-million-miles-driven.html https://www.androidheadlines.com/2017/12/ubers-autonomous-ve... Presumably a bit more since December. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... Fluctuates just over 1 per 100 million. (1/2+ million) / (1+/100 million) ~ 50-
- treis 9y ago
  In those 10 years ~350,000 people will die in car accidents in the US alone. Let's say that halving the death rate is what we can reasonably expect from the first generation of self driving cars. Every year we delay that is 15,000 people dead. This woman dying is a personal tragedy for her and those that knew her. However, as society we should be willing to accept thousands of deaths like hers if it gets us closer to safer self driving cars.
  - grumdan 9y ago
    > Let's say that halving the death rate is what we can reasonably expect from the first generation of self driving cars. What's your evidence for why this is a reasonable expectation? The fatalities compared to the amount of miles driven by autonomous vehicles so far shows that this is not possible at the moment. What evidence is there that this will radically improve soon?
  - 9y ago

if we wait for the gov to set up a certification for this, we'll delay the whole industry 10 years.

by scdc 9y ago

if we wait for the gov to set up a certification for this, we'll delay the whole industry 10 years.

xtian 9y ago

And?

megy 9y ago
Cost 1000s if not millions of lives. You understand over a million people die every year due driving? They system is not working.
- danso 9y ago
  A "million" people do not die in the U.S. every year from driving. Not even close: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... Not that 37,000+ is a great number, but I don't think many of the detractors here are arguing that Uber et. al have a perfect record. Just that it's possible that progress is being made in a more reckless way than necessary. Just because space flight is inherently difficult and risky and ambitious doesn't mean we don't investigate the possibly preventable factors behind the Challenger disaster. edit: You seem to be referencing the worldwide estimate. Fair, but we're not even close to having self-driven cars in the most afflicted countries. Nevermind AI, we're not even close to having clean potable water worldwide, and diarrhea-related deaths outnumber road accident deaths according to WHO: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/
  - tim333 9y ago
    Yeah but the tech will spread there fairly soon after it's established in the US. In places like Africa the most common cars are not some African brand, they seem to mostly be Toyotas, who will probably implement self driving when it's proven.
    - portofcall 9y ago
      For what value of “soon after” is very expensive automation going to reach Africa, India, and other places in numbers sufficient to put a dent in those fatalities? The slow march of other tech, safety included, suggests decades. Meanwhile the safety gains of automation are so far hypothetical, amd until they’re well demonstrated, potentially a distant pipe dream. Nothing about ML/AI today suggests a near-future of ultra-safe cars.
- mykull 9y ago
  Wow, let's just put people in bubble suits so they don't hurt themselves. It's ridiculous to say people shouldn't drive cars because it's possible to hurt themselves or others. We might as well outlaw pregnancy for all the harm that can come to people as a result of being born.

chimeracoder 9y ago

> if we wait for the gov to set up a certification for this, we'll delay the whole industry 10 years. That's not a particularly convincing argument, given that (so far), Uber's self-driving cars have a fatality rate of 50 times the baseline, per mile driven[0]. Having to wait an extra ten years to make sure that everything is done properly doesn't sound like the worst price to pay. [0] Nationwide, we have 1.25 deaths per 100 million miles driven. Uber's only driven about 2 million miles so far: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bizcarson/2017/12/22/ubers-self-driving-cars-2-million-miles https://www.forbes.com/sites/bizcarson/2017/12/22/ubers-self...

wnoise 9y ago
Under 50 times. Still horrible, of course. https://www.androidheadlines.com/2017/12/ubers-autonomous-vehicles-surpass-2-million-miles-driven.html https://www.androidheadlines.com/2017/12/ubers-autonomous-ve... Presumably a bit more since December. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... Fluctuates just over 1 per 100 million. (1/2+ million) / (1+/100 million) ~ 50-
treis 9y ago
In those 10 years ~350,000 people will die in car accidents in the US alone. Let's say that halving the death rate is what we can reasonably expect from the first generation of self driving cars. Every year we delay that is 15,000 people dead. This woman dying is a personal tragedy for her and those that knew her. However, as society we should be willing to accept thousands of deaths like hers if it gets us closer to safer self driving cars.
- grumdan 9y ago
  > Let's say that halving the death rate is what we can reasonably expect from the first generation of self driving cars. What's your evidence for why this is a reasonable expectation? The fatalities compared to the amount of miles driven by autonomous vehicles so far shows that this is not possible at the moment. What evidence is there that this will radically improve soon?
- 9y ago