The question shouldn't be "Did the evacuation raise the death toll given the mostly successful containment we now known happened"? It should instead be "Did the

The question shouldn't be "Did the evacuation raise the death toll given the mostly successful containment we now known happened"? It should instead be "Did the evacuation raise the death toll given the expected death toll values informed by the probability estimates of disaster available at the time"? It's also possible that the aftermath of the actual evacuation wasn't well handled; stating that "[the evacuation] reaped a terrible toll in depression, joblessness and alcoholism among the 63,000 people who were displaced beyond the prefecture" also give information about how much of that would still be present for the counterfactual in which people didn't leave but stayed to suffer the after-effects of the tsunami damage.