7 ms·

They don’t need robots, they need immigration. Japan has been relatively xenophobic compared to other nations/cultures.

Retric 9y ago
Every country will eventually get stuck with a stable population and as long as the average person lives to be over 80 they are going to make up a large chunk of the population. PS: Japan also has a rather high population density. The shrinking population is likely to end up as a good thing. PPS: The 200% debt to GDP ratio is rather fictitious as 40% of that is owned bey the Japanease government dropping their actual debt load closer to 120%.
- ekianjo 9y ago
  > PPS: The 200% debt to GDP ratio is rather fictitious as 40% of that is owned bey the Japanease government dropping their actual debt load closer to 120%. you make it sound like a debt at 120% is nothing or not even a problem.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- AboutTheWhisles 9y ago
  The debt is only owned by the government because they are printing money like crazy to convert their debt to 0% interest bonds. Japan is in an enormous amount of financial trouble and the moment inflation starts to show and panic sets in the race will be on to get out of yen into anything people can get their hands on, which will only make the problem worse.
  - Retric 9y ago
    Don't bet on that. They bought up 40% of their bonds and only hit 0.02% inflation. Now it's possible they might cause some inflation if they keep going but hitting 2% inflation would be a good thing and they have plenty of room to continue. PS: Remember deflation is a very real issue. Fighting that by buying government bonds seems to be the most ethical way to distribute free money.
    - AboutTheWhisles 9y ago
      Inflation doesn't happen overnight. The governments plan to start printing like crazy and buy up bonds is fairly recent.
      - Retric 9y ago
        They started doing this five years ago. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/boj-to-pump-1-4-trillion-into-economy-in-unprecedented-stimulus-idUSBRE93216U20130404 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/boj-to-... Going from 96.19 yen to USD to 106.04 is movement, but it's not all that huge or obvious this was the only cause of that change. Now, if you are thinking in terms of multi generational effects. I can see plenty of moral hazard from doing this, but if you want 2% inflation you need to keep creating new money.
coupdetaco 9y ago
How many votes do you get in Japan?
bone_frequency 9y ago
I do believe they don't need to be replaced, they need to fix their birth rates instead.
- dmm 9y ago
  In a world with affordable and effective birth control having children is a choice so it's really a question of why young people are choosing not to have children. Why do you think that is? Birth rates in the US are plummeting. They peaked in 2008 at 2.1/woman(the replacement rate) and are now down to 1.7. I can only offer anecdotes but I know several people of prime child rearing age who don't have families. From my discussions with them, they don't feel secure financially. Maybe people raised in a middle class environment aren't willing to risk poverty to have kids? Or maybe it's the endless distraction we have available to us. Or maybe it's the increasing isolation of modern life. If you weren't raised in a coherent household maybe you feel less of a need to create one yourself.
  - irrational 9y ago
    Again, anecdotally, but I have a lot of female coworkers who are in their 30s. Their biological clocks are ticking hard (they talk about babies and children all the time). As far as I can tell, the problem is none of them can find a guy that is willing to settle down and start a family. Not because the guys they date can't afford it, but they don't want to give up their single lifestyle (and let's face it, they don't need to get married to have sex, which is what used to convince guys to settle down decades ago). One of my coworkers was so desperate when she hit her late 30s that she stopped taking birth control and had unprotected sex with any guy that was willing until she got pregnant. Whoever the guy was, he has no idea he fathered a child. She just wanted him for his sperm. The kid is basically being raised by child care centers while she continues on her career path. The other female coworkers think she is smart and are planning on doing the same thing if they find themselves in a similar situation when they reach their late 30s.
    - Cyph0n 9y ago
      > Whoever the guy was, he has no idea he fathered a child. That's just unethical. I feel sorry for the child already...
ekianjo 9y ago
> Japan has been relatively xenophobic Even if your statement were true (and this is questionable), the problem is that Japan is not made for foreigners. Like, not at all. Consider you need Japanese licenses for a great number of jobs involving care, and that such licenses require great Japanese ability in the first place, and foreigners would be out for the most part.
- Cyph0n 9y ago
  I don't agree with the parent comment, but you make it sound as if the required licensing is ordained by God or something. Licenses are setup for a purpose, yes, but they are not immutable. Once the Japanese government reaches a point where the local labor pool is not sufficient for these tasks, they will at the very least ease the licensing requirements, or even remove them altogether.
  - ekianjo 9y ago
    Government is slow to reform itself because people wait for elections before making difficult or unpopular reforms if ever. Counting on government action in that context is unrealistic. > a point where the local labor pool is not sufficient for these tasks In case you have not noticed, we have already reached that point in Japan, several years ago. Many zones outside of cities are completely understaffed for elderly care. And government is doing what? Nothing.
- PhasmaFelis 9y ago
  How is it not xenophobic that they make it difficult for foreigners to find jobs?
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - jmadsen 9y ago
    I think it is xenophobic in Japan, but the point they were trying to make is more that many of the jobs require licenses for anybody, and much of it very difficult for foreigners because it is so difficult to learn the language. To give an example: a huge number of people from the Philippines, Malaysia, etc are recruited and trained as nurses and caregivers for the elderly - but after intense training, the majority are sent home only because they fail the language requirements. You really can't be a nurse to an 80+ year old if you can't speak the language or read the medicine bottles, xenophobia or no xenophobia. I don't think they are being clever enough in finding ways to get around that problem, but at the end of the day it is not that they are trying to keep foreigners out, just that the bar is very high. This is a different issue from things like refusing to take in any refugees (something like 27 total in 2016) or offer permanent status & long-term to workers (much like the German "visitor workers"), which is driven entirely by xenophobia IMHO (and the open statements of many elderly).
wyager 9y ago
God forbid they try to maintain their cultural distinctness... This insistence that they need to open the gates strikes me as a sort of weird form of outsourced imperialism. It’s the same rhetoric it’s always been, where their primitive ways are morally repugnant and they’re in dire need of civilizing. The proposed mechanism of “civilization” is just very different.
- girvo 9y ago
  What’s better: being culturally distinct and having a failing society (it’s certainly failing for some people), or allowing some more immigration and adapting? I find your comment curious considering the context of this article
  - richardknop 9y ago
    But they are not a failing society. Japan is one of the most popular and desirable places, it has very high standard of living, almost no violent crime. It’s their country and they are not obliged to open the gates to immigration if they don’t want to. It’s one of basic principles of a nation state, that you can control your borders and not let foreign people in if you don’t want to.
  - titanix2 9y ago
    It could be better because the "failing" you described is a very different set of problems than those coming with large immigration. Just look at Western Europe, Sweden or Paris to see how bad things could go in only a few decades. I would totally prefer living in a more dire economic state rather than "adapting" my lifestyle to the immigrants (which is sadly already the case in my country and that includes extensive airport-like checking at a lot of place because of terror attacks, amongst other things).
  - nostalgeek 9y ago
    > What’s better: being culturally distinct and having a failing society (it’s certainly failing for some people), or allowing some more immigration and adapting? I find your comment curious considering the context of this article Japan will be fine. it's already an overpopulated Archipelago so they do not need immigration. There is nothing wrong with wanting to preserve one's culture and way of life. Japan isn't a failing society by any standards, and certainly not the american one.
kaybe 9y ago
I think robots would be a great help regardless. It would mean that everyone can take care of parents longer when the time comes since they can do more by themselves when you can't be there 24/7.

Every country will eventually get stuck with a stable population and as long as the average person lives to be over 80 they are going to make up a large chunk of the population. PS: Japan also has a rather high population density. The shrinking population is likely to end up as a good thing. PPS: The 200% debt to GDP ratio is rather fictitious as 40% of that is owned bey the Japanease government dropping their actual debt load closer to 120%.

ekianjo 9y ago
> PPS: The 200% debt to GDP ratio is rather fictitious as 40% of that is owned bey the Japanease government dropping their actual debt load closer to 120%. you make it sound like a debt at 120% is nothing or not even a problem.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
AboutTheWhisles 9y ago
The debt is only owned by the government because they are printing money like crazy to convert their debt to 0% interest bonds. Japan is in an enormous amount of financial trouble and the moment inflation starts to show and panic sets in the race will be on to get out of yen into anything people can get their hands on, which will only make the problem worse.
- Retric 9y ago
  Don't bet on that. They bought up 40% of their bonds and only hit 0.02% inflation. Now it's possible they might cause some inflation if they keep going but hitting 2% inflation would be a good thing and they have plenty of room to continue. PS: Remember deflation is a very real issue. Fighting that by buying government bonds seems to be the most ethical way to distribute free money.
  - AboutTheWhisles 9y ago
    Inflation doesn't happen overnight. The governments plan to start printing like crazy and buy up bonds is fairly recent.
    - Retric 9y ago
      They started doing this five years ago. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/boj-to-pump-1-4-trillion-into-economy-in-unprecedented-stimulus-idUSBRE93216U20130404 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj/boj-to-... Going from 96.19 yen to USD to 106.04 is movement, but it's not all that huge or obvious this was the only cause of that change. Now, if you are thinking in terms of multi generational effects. I can see plenty of moral hazard from doing this, but if you want 2% inflation you need to keep creating new money.

coupdetaco 9y ago

How many votes do you get in Japan?

bone_frequency 9y ago

I do believe they don't need to be replaced, they need to fix their birth rates instead.

dmm 9y ago
In a world with affordable and effective birth control having children is a choice so it's really a question of why young people are choosing not to have children. Why do you think that is? Birth rates in the US are plummeting. They peaked in 2008 at 2.1/woman(the replacement rate) and are now down to 1.7. I can only offer anecdotes but I know several people of prime child rearing age who don't have families. From my discussions with them, they don't feel secure financially. Maybe people raised in a middle class environment aren't willing to risk poverty to have kids? Or maybe it's the endless distraction we have available to us. Or maybe it's the increasing isolation of modern life. If you weren't raised in a coherent household maybe you feel less of a need to create one yourself.
- irrational 9y ago
  Again, anecdotally, but I have a lot of female coworkers who are in their 30s. Their biological clocks are ticking hard (they talk about babies and children all the time). As far as I can tell, the problem is none of them can find a guy that is willing to settle down and start a family. Not because the guys they date can't afford it, but they don't want to give up their single lifestyle (and let's face it, they don't need to get married to have sex, which is what used to convince guys to settle down decades ago). One of my coworkers was so desperate when she hit her late 30s that she stopped taking birth control and had unprotected sex with any guy that was willing until she got pregnant. Whoever the guy was, he has no idea he fathered a child. She just wanted him for his sperm. The kid is basically being raised by child care centers while she continues on her career path. The other female coworkers think she is smart and are planning on doing the same thing if they find themselves in a similar situation when they reach their late 30s.
  - Cyph0n 9y ago
    > Whoever the guy was, he has no idea he fathered a child. That's just unethical. I feel sorry for the child already...

ekianjo 9y ago

> Japan has been relatively xenophobic Even if your statement were true (and this is questionable), the problem is that Japan is not made for foreigners. Like, not at all. Consider you need Japanese licenses for a great number of jobs involving care, and that such licenses require great Japanese ability in the first place, and foreigners would be out for the most part.

Cyph0n 9y ago
I don't agree with the parent comment, but you make it sound as if the required licensing is ordained by God or something. Licenses are setup for a purpose, yes, but they are not immutable. Once the Japanese government reaches a point where the local labor pool is not sufficient for these tasks, they will at the very least ease the licensing requirements, or even remove them altogether.
- ekianjo 9y ago
  Government is slow to reform itself because people wait for elections before making difficult or unpopular reforms if ever. Counting on government action in that context is unrealistic. > a point where the local labor pool is not sufficient for these tasks In case you have not noticed, we have already reached that point in Japan, several years ago. Many zones outside of cities are completely understaffed for elderly care. And government is doing what? Nothing.
PhasmaFelis 9y ago
How is it not xenophobic that they make it difficult for foreigners to find jobs?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- jmadsen 9y ago
  I think it is xenophobic in Japan, but the point they were trying to make is more that many of the jobs require licenses for anybody, and much of it very difficult for foreigners because it is so difficult to learn the language. To give an example: a huge number of people from the Philippines, Malaysia, etc are recruited and trained as nurses and caregivers for the elderly - but after intense training, the majority are sent home only because they fail the language requirements. You really can't be a nurse to an 80+ year old if you can't speak the language or read the medicine bottles, xenophobia or no xenophobia. I don't think they are being clever enough in finding ways to get around that problem, but at the end of the day it is not that they are trying to keep foreigners out, just that the bar is very high. This is a different issue from things like refusing to take in any refugees (something like 27 total in 2016) or offer permanent status & long-term to workers (much like the German "visitor workers"), which is driven entirely by xenophobia IMHO (and the open statements of many elderly).

wyager 9y ago

God forbid they try to maintain their cultural distinctness... This insistence that they need to open the gates strikes me as a sort of weird form of outsourced imperialism. It’s the same rhetoric it’s always been, where their primitive ways are morally repugnant and they’re in dire need of civilizing. The proposed mechanism of “civilization” is just very different.

girvo 9y ago
What’s better: being culturally distinct and having a failing society (it’s certainly failing for some people), or allowing some more immigration and adapting? I find your comment curious considering the context of this article
- richardknop 9y ago
  But they are not a failing society. Japan is one of the most popular and desirable places, it has very high standard of living, almost no violent crime. It’s their country and they are not obliged to open the gates to immigration if they don’t want to. It’s one of basic principles of a nation state, that you can control your borders and not let foreign people in if you don’t want to.
- titanix2 9y ago
  It could be better because the "failing" you described is a very different set of problems than those coming with large immigration. Just look at Western Europe, Sweden or Paris to see how bad things could go in only a few decades. I would totally prefer living in a more dire economic state rather than "adapting" my lifestyle to the immigrants (which is sadly already the case in my country and that includes extensive airport-like checking at a lot of place because of terror attacks, amongst other things).
- nostalgeek 9y ago
  > What’s better: being culturally distinct and having a failing society (it’s certainly failing for some people), or allowing some more immigration and adapting? I find your comment curious considering the context of this article Japan will be fine. it's already an overpopulated Archipelago so they do not need immigration. There is nothing wrong with wanting to preserve one's culture and way of life. Japan isn't a failing society by any standards, and certainly not the american one.

kaybe 9y ago

I think robots would be a great help regardless. It would mean that everyone can take care of parents longer when the time comes since they can do more by themselves when you can't be there 24/7.