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Russia cannot afford a war. It simply doesn't have the money or military to go against USA and Europe. And, no, China is not going to help them out

mc32 9y ago
Europe is not in good shape to fight a war by themselves against Russia. So Russia could get away with lots of things like they did in Eastern Ukraine or meddle some more in the middle east. It does not hurt them, but it will hurt the EU as well as the US.
chokolad 9y ago
Russia can't afford starting conventional war against NATO, but if such a war will somehow flare up, Russia can afford to finish the nuclear war that will follow.
- kurthr 9y ago
  I think you are saying they can afford Mutually Assured Destruction? I hope they're not that crazy. I suppose it's monetarily/mechanically true, but it's almost like saying you can afford a new car when your life insurance pays out.
  - Waterluvian 9y ago
    The problem with logicing away MAD is that these hierarchies of power are built where it takes just one madman, not bound by logic, to decide to destroy everything. Then you pray for some breakdown in command down the chain. Dr. Strangelove and all that.
    - dvtv75 9y ago
      I find myself hoping that there's one person in every hierarchy who loves his (or her, for that matter) country and the world more than the leader, and is willing to execute the leader to prevent a nuclear war. With the cults-of-personality in place throughout Russia, China, North Korea, and the US, I'm nowhere near believing that such a person is in the right place, but I suppose that's the difference between hope and fact.
  - chokolad 9y ago
    I am saying that it's highly unlikely that Russia will start conventional war with NATO. On the other hand I am not so sure about NATO not starting the war with Russia. In that case it can easily escalate to MAD. I have an unsubstantiated feeling (probably too much r/worldnews) that US/EU citizens don't even think that it will escalate that far. I find this very dangerous.
    - mirimir 9y ago
      Right. I mean, what happens if Russian forces get cornered, and use tactical nukes? That's how the Cuban Missile Crisis almost became WWIII. I've also read that the Soviets threatened to nuke Tel Aviv during the Six-Day War, if Israel bombed Cairo.
    - kurthr 9y ago
      Because Ukraine wasn't a member (only applied for membership, but hadn't met requirements) when "separtists" "freed" the Crimean peninsula to "protect" the Russian civilians "trapped" there. Shooting down MH17, a B777-200ER with 298 aboard, 50km over Ukraine using a SAM was provoked by NATO? I think I have an idea of who will be invading, escalating, and hoping there won't be consequences.
  - neverAlways 9y ago
    Do you honestly believe everyone finds life valuable enough to live long enough to pay their debts? Do you think everyone feels the same about the idea of continuing to live a life hounded by debtors? Suicide is a reconcilliation option for those who know they will be dumped on the street because what the creditors really want is the real estate the foreclosed house sits on. Look at how Saddam Hussein paid his debts. Now, imagine you’re a leader in control of a big red button. Tanks are in the streets, people are rioting. What happens next?
  - forapurpose 9y ago
    > I think you are saying they can afford Mutually Assured Destruction? I hope they're not that crazy. Russia has been working on strategies for limited use of nuclear weapons; they don't believe in MAD. It's called Escalate to De-escalate: https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-02/escalate-de-escalate https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-02/escalate-... https://www.defensenews.com/smr/munich-security-forum/2018/02/17/escalate-to-de-escalate-us-and-russia-trade-jabs-on-nuclear-arms-use/ https://www.defensenews.com/smr/munich-security-forum/2018/0... https://thebulletin.org/why-russia-calls-limited-nuclear-strike-de-escalation https://thebulletin.org/why-russia-calls-limited-nuclear-str... It's as crazy as it sounds; a miscalculation could destroy humanity. Consider that their ability to significantly influence foreign publics through social media could be valuable for the de-escalation portion. No doubt we'll see people claiming (false) equivalency between Russia's and the U.S.'s actions - 'they bombed Japan, we bombed Ukraine'.
- onetimemanytime 9y ago
  Nuclear war? A person can go nuts and start shooting at an NRA convention, but Putin Inc has no death wish. Government is government ruled by thousands of top people and almost all are rich and want to live. If Putin goes nuts, he'll be arrested or killed by his own generals.
  - riku_iki 9y ago
    thousands of top people don't have access to block trigger in emergency situation.
- chokolad 9y ago
  onetimemanytime - are you willing to make that bet ? I'm not.
  - kurthr 9y ago
    If we want to postulate the geo-politics of a Russia so crazy as to launch a nuclear attack (hoping for no response), we can also look at the effects of having a Russia so reviled that they become the focus of the entire world's fear and hatred. Would having a single known enemy make for a more unified and ultimately productive world?
    - chokolad 9y ago
      Check my answer to another post of yours. I doubt Russia will launch an unprovoked nuclear attack but I would not put it behind them to escalate conventional war to nuclear if it will start going badly.
- mirimir 9y ago
  Russia has lots of small tactical nukes.
exabrial 9y ago
A conventional one, very true and a good point to keep in mind. Do you think, however, this would push them towards the nuclear button?
- onetimemanytime 9y ago
  IMO, only if invaded and all else has failed. Say China invades Siberia
  - exabrial 9y ago
    11 time zones later, they can reach Europe...!
vadimberman 9y ago
Nobody needs a conventional war anymore, unless the takeover of the enemy territory and resources is an objective. Blockades and sanctions are far less efficient than in the past when it was possible to completely cut off a vital supply of resources for an entire nation. It is much cost-effective and efficient to engage in low-intensity sabotage while making an innocent face, scaring the population, and balancing in the gray zone.
rdiddly 9y ago
Russia is absolutely prepared to win a land war in their own territory. It kind of appears to be all they're interested in. Which would tend to make one draw some crazy wacky conclusions like maybe it's a defensive force held by a nation of peace-loving people who just want to cooperate and be respected, or at least left alone? Probably sounds ridiculous to anybody steeped in the current wave of anti-Russian hysteria in the American media (or the earlier wave in the 80s). Why somebody might be producing warmongering propaganda against Russia I don't know, but clearly I'm supposed to take it as an unquestioned first principle that of course Russia is out to get us (as if we weren't busy "getting" ourselves) and of course Putin is the bogeyman -- Putin, a guy who has something like an 80% approval rating among his people and whose every public speech seems to be about conciliation, cooperation and peacemaking. Something isn't quite right. (Probably both sides are full of shit.) Anyway no one has ever invaded Russia and won, including Napoleon and Hitler. Russians are proud of that. Their navy is about 2/3 as big as the US, but if what you're defending is most of Asia (an ocean of dirt) maybe that's not the biggest concern. Anyway if China does join in, their navy is comparable to the US's, and together with Russia's, it'd be bigger. The Russian air force is tiny (same for China) but given that all our aircraft carriers are basically sitting ducks for all the various Russian carrier-busting missiles they have nowadays, our air superiority might not matter as much as we'd like to think. Also they tend to stretch money further. Their jets are fairly cheap, indestructible metal cans with loose tolerances... kind of like flying AK-47s... while ours are exquisite and expensive (because they're made out of porkbarrel) and you have to walk the airfield and pick up every little bitty piece of debris before you take off, otherwise it might suck something in and choke... so the equivalent of a flying AR-15 that always jams.
- dragonwriter 9y ago
  > Russia is absolutely prepared to win a land war in their own territory. It kind of appears to be all they're interested in. That's clearly not true, as recent history shows, unless one has a fairly broad definition of what Russia’s “own territory” is.
  - rdiddly 9y ago
    Ukraine was geographically and culturally part of Russia for centuries, only becoming independent in 1991 when the USSR collapsed.

mc32 9y ago

Europe is not in good shape to fight a war by themselves against Russia. So Russia could get away with lots of things like they did in Eastern Ukraine or meddle some more in the middle east. It does not hurt them, but it will hurt the EU as well as the US.

chokolad 9y ago

Russia can't afford starting conventional war against NATO, but if such a war will somehow flare up, Russia can afford to finish the nuclear war that will follow.

kurthr 9y ago
I think you are saying they can afford Mutually Assured Destruction? I hope they're not that crazy. I suppose it's monetarily/mechanically true, but it's almost like saying you can afford a new car when your life insurance pays out.
- Waterluvian 9y ago
  The problem with logicing away MAD is that these hierarchies of power are built where it takes just one madman, not bound by logic, to decide to destroy everything. Then you pray for some breakdown in command down the chain. Dr. Strangelove and all that.
  - dvtv75 9y ago
    I find myself hoping that there's one person in every hierarchy who loves his (or her, for that matter) country and the world more than the leader, and is willing to execute the leader to prevent a nuclear war. With the cults-of-personality in place throughout Russia, China, North Korea, and the US, I'm nowhere near believing that such a person is in the right place, but I suppose that's the difference between hope and fact.
- chokolad 9y ago
  I am saying that it's highly unlikely that Russia will start conventional war with NATO. On the other hand I am not so sure about NATO not starting the war with Russia. In that case it can easily escalate to MAD. I have an unsubstantiated feeling (probably too much r/worldnews) that US/EU citizens don't even think that it will escalate that far. I find this very dangerous.
  - mirimir 9y ago
    Right. I mean, what happens if Russian forces get cornered, and use tactical nukes? That's how the Cuban Missile Crisis almost became WWIII. I've also read that the Soviets threatened to nuke Tel Aviv during the Six-Day War, if Israel bombed Cairo.
  - kurthr 9y ago
    Because Ukraine wasn't a member (only applied for membership, but hadn't met requirements) when "separtists" "freed" the Crimean peninsula to "protect" the Russian civilians "trapped" there. Shooting down MH17, a B777-200ER with 298 aboard, 50km over Ukraine using a SAM was provoked by NATO? I think I have an idea of who will be invading, escalating, and hoping there won't be consequences.
- neverAlways 9y ago
  Do you honestly believe everyone finds life valuable enough to live long enough to pay their debts? Do you think everyone feels the same about the idea of continuing to live a life hounded by debtors? Suicide is a reconcilliation option for those who know they will be dumped on the street because what the creditors really want is the real estate the foreclosed house sits on. Look at how Saddam Hussein paid his debts. Now, imagine you’re a leader in control of a big red button. Tanks are in the streets, people are rioting. What happens next?
- forapurpose 9y ago
  > I think you are saying they can afford Mutually Assured Destruction? I hope they're not that crazy. Russia has been working on strategies for limited use of nuclear weapons; they don't believe in MAD. It's called Escalate to De-escalate: https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-02/escalate-de-escalate https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-02/escalate-... https://www.defensenews.com/smr/munich-security-forum/2018/02/17/escalate-to-de-escalate-us-and-russia-trade-jabs-on-nuclear-arms-use/ https://www.defensenews.com/smr/munich-security-forum/2018/0... https://thebulletin.org/why-russia-calls-limited-nuclear-strike-de-escalation https://thebulletin.org/why-russia-calls-limited-nuclear-str... It's as crazy as it sounds; a miscalculation could destroy humanity. Consider that their ability to significantly influence foreign publics through social media could be valuable for the de-escalation portion. No doubt we'll see people claiming (false) equivalency between Russia's and the U.S.'s actions - 'they bombed Japan, we bombed Ukraine'.
onetimemanytime 9y ago
Nuclear war? A person can go nuts and start shooting at an NRA convention, but Putin Inc has no death wish. Government is government ruled by thousands of top people and almost all are rich and want to live. If Putin goes nuts, he'll be arrested or killed by his own generals.
- riku_iki 9y ago
  thousands of top people don't have access to block trigger in emergency situation.
chokolad 9y ago
onetimemanytime - are you willing to make that bet ? I'm not.
- kurthr 9y ago
  If we want to postulate the geo-politics of a Russia so crazy as to launch a nuclear attack (hoping for no response), we can also look at the effects of having a Russia so reviled that they become the focus of the entire world's fear and hatred. Would having a single known enemy make for a more unified and ultimately productive world?
  - chokolad 9y ago
    Check my answer to another post of yours. I doubt Russia will launch an unprovoked nuclear attack but I would not put it behind them to escalate conventional war to nuclear if it will start going badly.
mirimir 9y ago
Russia has lots of small tactical nukes.

exabrial 9y ago

A conventional one, very true and a good point to keep in mind. Do you think, however, this would push them towards the nuclear button?

onetimemanytime 9y ago
IMO, only if invaded and all else has failed. Say China invades Siberia
- exabrial 9y ago
  11 time zones later, they can reach Europe...!

vadimberman 9y ago

Nobody needs a conventional war anymore, unless the takeover of the enemy territory and resources is an objective. Blockades and sanctions are far less efficient than in the past when it was possible to completely cut off a vital supply of resources for an entire nation. It is much cost-effective and efficient to engage in low-intensity sabotage while making an innocent face, scaring the population, and balancing in the gray zone.

rdiddly 9y ago

Russia is absolutely prepared to win a land war in their own territory. It kind of appears to be all they're interested in. Which would tend to make one draw some crazy wacky conclusions like maybe it's a defensive force held by a nation of peace-loving people who just want to cooperate and be respected, or at least left alone? Probably sounds ridiculous to anybody steeped in the current wave of anti-Russian hysteria in the American media (or the earlier wave in the 80s). Why somebody might be producing warmongering propaganda against Russia I don't know, but clearly I'm supposed to take it as an unquestioned first principle that of course Russia is out to get us (as if we weren't busy "getting" ourselves) and of course Putin is the bogeyman -- Putin, a guy who has something like an 80% approval rating among his people and whose every public speech seems to be about conciliation, cooperation and peacemaking. Something isn't quite right. (Probably both sides are full of shit.) Anyway no one has ever invaded Russia and won, including Napoleon and Hitler. Russians are proud of that. Their navy is about 2/3 as big as the US, but if what you're defending is most of Asia (an ocean of dirt) maybe that's not the biggest concern. Anyway if China does join in, their navy is comparable to the US's, and together with Russia's, it'd be bigger. The Russian air force is tiny (same for China) but given that all our aircraft carriers are basically sitting ducks for all the various Russian carrier-busting missiles they have nowadays, our air superiority might not matter as much as we'd like to think. Also they tend to stretch money further. Their jets are fairly cheap, indestructible metal cans with loose tolerances... kind of like flying AK-47s... while ours are exquisite and expensive (because they're made out of porkbarrel) and you have to walk the airfield and pick up every little bitty piece of debris before you take off, otherwise it might suck something in and choke... so the equivalent of a flying AR-15 that always jams.

dragonwriter 9y ago
> Russia is absolutely prepared to win a land war in their own territory. It kind of appears to be all they're interested in. That's clearly not true, as recent history shows, unless one has a fairly broad definition of what Russia’s “own territory” is.
- rdiddly 9y ago
  Ukraine was geographically and culturally part of Russia for centuries, only becoming independent in 1991 when the USSR collapsed.