3 ms·

From the paper: > Between 3.64 and 6.84% of phenotypic intelligence (as measured by the VNR Test in UK Biobank) could be predicted (Supplementary Table 10); th

From the paper: > Between 3.64 and 6.84% of phenotypic intelligence (as measured by the VNR Test in UK Biobank) could be predicted (Supplementary Table 10); the upper limit is an improvement of ~43% on the largest reported estimate to date, of 4.8% [16]. Doesn't 7% seem quite small (though better than previous studies)? What am I missing?

barry-cotter 9y ago
You’re not mssng anything. This is not the end, it’s just the end of the beginning. Ten years from now we’ll have tests that come within a narrow margin of error of predicting IQ from spitting in a test tube. Modulo malnutrition and serious physical abuse but the first at least is not common in the developed world.
- dragonwriter 9y ago
  > Ten years from now we’ll have tests that come within a narrow margin of error of predicting IQ from spitting in a test tube. Modulo malnutrition and serious physical abuse but the first at least is not common in the developed world. Malnutrition and serious physical abuse aren't the only environmental factors with a known significant impact on intelligence, and nutrition (particularly childhood nutrition) patterns with a serious adverse effect on IQ have been identified in research focussed on first world areas of study; they certainly aren't rate enough to be insignificant sources of variation in the first world.
  - xyzzyz 9y ago
    What are other important environmental factors affecting IQ in first world? I haven't really heard of any other are as important as these, so I'm interested in learning about them.
    - OrganicMSG 9y ago
      There are many environmental poisons that affect brain development, consumption of lead, for instance. Also there are many diseases that can effect brain development, such as congenital syphilis.
      - Erlangolem 9y ago
        Don’t forget the most obvious: diet, both of the pregnant, mother, and the growing child. The link between insufficient nutrition and lowered IQ is well established. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2628311 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2628311 https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041117005027.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041117005027.h...
      - xyzzyz 9y ago
        Are these significant in the first world though? I thought that phasing out leaded gasoline and lead paint happened enough time ago to not be a significant factor anymore these days. Similarly, congenital syphilis prevalence is not high either, especially as syphilis is quite easy to treat today.
        OrganicMSG 9y ago
        Well, there is the continuing mass lead poisoning in Flint - http://time.com/5197427/flint-water-samples-lead-increase/ http://time.com/5197427/flint-water-samples-lead-increase/ - and congenital syphilis is on the rise in the USA - https://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/01/health/syphilis-newborns-partner/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/01/health/syphilis-newborns-...
        xyzzyz 9y ago
        Based on your article, congenital syphilis is extremely, extremely rare. Lead poisoning seems to also be rather low, compared to 50 years ago. I know these two things happen. I asked if they are significant. Seems like they are not.
        9y ago

barry-cotter 9y ago

You’re not mssng anything. This is not the end, it’s just the end of the beginning. Ten years from now we’ll have tests that come within a narrow margin of error of predicting IQ from spitting in a test tube. Modulo malnutrition and serious physical abuse but the first at least is not common in the developed world.

dragonwriter 9y ago
> Ten years from now we’ll have tests that come within a narrow margin of error of predicting IQ from spitting in a test tube. Modulo malnutrition and serious physical abuse but the first at least is not common in the developed world. Malnutrition and serious physical abuse aren't the only environmental factors with a known significant impact on intelligence, and nutrition (particularly childhood nutrition) patterns with a serious adverse effect on IQ have been identified in research focussed on first world areas of study; they certainly aren't rate enough to be insignificant sources of variation in the first world.
- xyzzyz 9y ago
  What are other important environmental factors affecting IQ in first world? I haven't really heard of any other are as important as these, so I'm interested in learning about them.
  - OrganicMSG 9y ago
    There are many environmental poisons that affect brain development, consumption of lead, for instance. Also there are many diseases that can effect brain development, such as congenital syphilis.
    - Erlangolem 9y ago
      Don’t forget the most obvious: diet, both of the pregnant, mother, and the growing child. The link between insufficient nutrition and lowered IQ is well established. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2628311 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2628311 https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041117005027.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041117005027.h...
    - xyzzyz 9y ago
      Are these significant in the first world though? I thought that phasing out leaded gasoline and lead paint happened enough time ago to not be a significant factor anymore these days. Similarly, congenital syphilis prevalence is not high either, especially as syphilis is quite easy to treat today.
      - OrganicMSG 9y ago
        Well, there is the continuing mass lead poisoning in Flint - http://time.com/5197427/flint-water-samples-lead-increase/ http://time.com/5197427/flint-water-samples-lead-increase/ - and congenital syphilis is on the rise in the USA - https://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/01/health/syphilis-newborns-partner/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/01/health/syphilis-newborns-...
        xyzzyz 9y ago
        Based on your article, congenital syphilis is extremely, extremely rare. Lead poisoning seems to also be rather low, compared to 50 years ago. I know these two things happen. I asked if they are significant. Seems like they are not.
        9y ago