R/economics went over this a bit too. There are other issues with the model that and to make it very poor: - fixed rate of return (doubled or halved) make luck

R/economics went over this a bit too. There are other issues with the model that and to make it very poor: - fixed rate of return (doubled or halved) make luck play an oversized role. One of talents greatest contributions is knowing how to let your winners run and cut your losses. The setup is close to a random walk by definition. - risk reduction is hugely important. High earners especially when speaking of finance tend to know how to reduce risk. Only fools always bet half they capital in every decision. - talent would understand what events are more likely to succeed than just every event having the same probability. - talent and preparation generate events. The more you prepare the more chances you'll have available. Most successful people have failed multiple times but keep trying. - no learning. One of talents great benefits is learning from mistakes. And when combined with increased number of chances that talent provides, this is a critical feedback cycle the model misses. Basically the model made everybody similar and then had an exponential random function. With such small tails in the talent pool, there is no other decision it could have reached.