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That doesn't contract my claim at all. It would only contradict it if I had claimed that the incompetent people estimated their rant as above some competent gr
by jamesrcole 9y ago
That doesn't contract my claim at all. It would only contradict it if I had claimed that the incompetent people estimated their rant as above some competent group. All that is required for my claim is that they overestimate their abilities.
- Nomentatus 9y agoRight - you claimed mere imperfection, in a limited case. But we also know that experts making predictions outside their field are on average more confident but less accurate than non-experts. So the "folk mythology" version of D-K actually does apply at times, just not to "people of low ability."
- aaron695 9y agoIt absolutely constricts you. You being funny? >> unfortunately, confidence isn't a perfect signal. >I think that's a major understatement. >There's the Dunning–Kruger effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect "major understatement" People rank themselves very well. They don't rank "spacing" all that well but they rank absolutely accurately. For a "major understatement" I would expect it would be so bad they rank incorrectly which is NOT the case (as per stated by your wiki link, Dunning–Kruger could be wrong) People rank themselves in the order they should be accurately. (With variance blah blah blah)