The SEC has rules for what constitutes legal and illegal insider trading: https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersinsiderhtm.html https://www.sec.gov/fast-answe

The SEC has rules for what constitutes legal and illegal insider trading: https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersinsiderhtm.html https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersinsiderhtm.html Generally though, the rules don't disallow average employees from guessing about the future stock price. It becomes illegal insider trading if somehow you had obtained material non-public information to make the decision.