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If the models have parameters which are tuned purely based on data available up until a certain point in time, and can predict outcomes based on data that is ob

If the models have parameters which are tuned purely based on data available up until a certain point in time, and can predict outcomes based on data that is observed after that point in time, then those models can be said to be good predictors. For example, if a model is trained to calculate the average Earth surface temperature based on recorded CO2 levels up to the year 2000, and then it correctly predicts the average surface temperature of all subsequent years, with just the CO2 levels as input, that would be a very helpful model for deciding what would be a safe level of CO2 to have in the atmosphere if we want the Earth's temperature to have less than some particular amount of warming.

wccrawford 9y ago
Except that it doesn't work for them. They have continually changed their models to predict the current behavior. They even started calling it "climate change" instead of "global warming" because of that. To be clear: I'm not saying it isn't happening. (It is.) I'm not saying it's not caused by humans. (I think it probably is.) I'm saying that they have been terrible at proving anything. Everything from modifying the data and then deleting the original data to creating models that fail to predict the future.
- soared 9y ago
  These discussions devolve quickly when you use the word "they" as if scientists, politicians, etc are all one big group of people. The same thing occurs when people talk about big tech, big business, politicians, advertisers, homeless people, etc. My point is that there is no "they" so assigning behavior makes to "them" makes it impossible to counter-argue. You say they did it, but you can't even define they, so how would I prove they didn't do that? (Which is related to the article - "they" doesn't have a reputation, except for the negative one you just insinuated on the spot)
- dane-pgp 9y ago
  I don't know which "they" you think changed from calling it "global warming" to "climate change", but the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been pretty consistent in its name for the past 30 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Cli...
chapill 9y ago
>If the models If? I believe you just told me that you didn't build the model yourself. You're validating my statements from your first word. This is my point. It's the information equivalent of hearsay.

wccrawford 9y ago

Except that it doesn't work for them. They have continually changed their models to predict the current behavior. They even started calling it "climate change" instead of "global warming" because of that. To be clear: I'm not saying it isn't happening. (It is.) I'm not saying it's not caused by humans. (I think it probably is.) I'm saying that they have been terrible at proving anything. Everything from modifying the data and then deleting the original data to creating models that fail to predict the future.

soared 9y ago
These discussions devolve quickly when you use the word "they" as if scientists, politicians, etc are all one big group of people. The same thing occurs when people talk about big tech, big business, politicians, advertisers, homeless people, etc. My point is that there is no "they" so assigning behavior makes to "them" makes it impossible to counter-argue. You say they did it, but you can't even define they, so how would I prove they didn't do that? (Which is related to the article - "they" doesn't have a reputation, except for the negative one you just insinuated on the spot)
dane-pgp 9y ago
I don't know which "they" you think changed from calling it "global warming" to "climate change", but the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been pretty consistent in its name for the past 30 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Cli...

chapill 9y ago

>If the models If? I believe you just told me that you didn't build the model yourself. You're validating my statements from your first word. This is my point. It's the information equivalent of hearsay.