I think that pundits' predictions are largely colored by their own bias, much like political pundits. I have to admit that I'm a consumer and I still don't get

I think that pundits' predictions are largely colored by their own bias, much like political pundits. I have to admit that I'm a consumer and I still don't get the iPad. It's like an underpowered laptop that I have hold instead of letting it rest in my lap. What could the benefit possibly be? But... here I am, eating my proverbial hat. Netflix, on the other hand, I get. I had it early and people would say, "Why would you want to wait for your movie when you could get it at the video store?" I would explain that 1. I wanted movies I couldn't get at the store and 2. I generally had 2 or 3 going, so I wasn't without something. It's just a matter of what you value and then projecting those values onto the observed behaviors of a large population. If you see a bunch of people going to the river you might think that they are thirsty, but in reality they want to go swimming. That uncertainty makes predicting hard.