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I'm surprised almost nobody's talking about the relative change in safety yet. Transportation accidents are the leading cause of "unintentional injury" deaths

I'm surprised almost nobody's talking about the relative change in safety yet. Transportation accidents are the leading cause of "unintentional injury" deaths (i.e., not disease, suicide, or homicide) [1]. Although the absolute rates are somewhat low (7.28 fatalities per billion miles for cars and light trucks), you are approximately 100 times more likely to die while driving than flying (table 2 in [1]). [1]: http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~ipsavage/436.pdf http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~ipsavage/436.pdf

pc86 9y ago
This is not commercial aviation, this is general aviation (even if it's commercial in nature). GA is more dangerous than driving, roughly comparable to riding a motorcycle, and that's being optimistic.
- danielvf 9y ago
  Strong agreement - no sane company would operate a taxi company at the current General Aviation safety rates. They are going to have to do a whole, whole lot better. Getting safer seems like it could be possible, but it's going to be an enormous amount of work.
- TylerE 9y ago
  There is no such thing as "commercial general aviation". Once you're accepting fee-for-service you are a commercial carrier with all the regulations that go along with that.
  - pc86 9y ago
    Just because you're getting a paycheck doesn't make your Skyhawk magically as safe as a 787. This is decidedly in the GA category in terms of safety.
    - TylerE 9y ago
      No it doesn't. But someone flying commercially, even in a Cessna is going to have quite a bit more training than Joe Pilot who flys 10 hours a year. A commercial and IFR certificate at the very least, and will also have to pass more stringent and more frequent medical exams.
gambiting 9y ago
These "driving related" injuries and deaths stats are almost always skewed because they include fatalities/injuries for drunk driving and night time driving. Someone only driving to work and back is at an absolutely minuscule risk of injury/death from driving.
- notheguyouthink 9y ago
  Not that it's statistically relevant, but my drive to work feels like my most dangerous drive, by far. An interstate that seems to have a fatal accident on it weekly, of which I'm usually within an affected time window. Still not saying I'm narrowly avoiding death or anything, but man, the sheer volume of people going to work on the interstate every morning and night causes so many wrecks.
- thaumaturgy 9y ago
  I'm happy to accept ~pc86's correction up above, but I disagree with this rebuttal. The risk is minuscule in the absolute sense (several hundred fatalities per billion miles), and if you are driving drunk (or tired, or on painkillers, or while texting), your odds of collision certainly go up. But just because you aren't doing those things, doesn't make you any less at risk from other people doing those things. You are still on the road, surrounded by, in some areas, hundreds or thousands of deadly machines operated by people who are generally almost capable of handling them. I just finished an excellent book on this, "A Deadly Wandering", which examines distracted driving specifically but also touches on a few other related subjects. In the primary case that the book follows, and in the few others it mentions, distracted drivers walked away from wrecks where they had killed innocent other passengers or motorists. Being in a car (or bike, or motorcycle) on the road is one of the most dangerous things the average person does on a regular basis.
  - gambiting 9y ago
    Absolutely, I'm just saying that the risk you are in changes depending where you are and what you do, there is an average amount of risk but it doesn't apply to everyone. I understand that some people have very dangerous commutes, but for some it's literally 10 miles of traffic moving at <10mph 99% of the time. If that's your "driving" then the risk of having a life destroying accident is almost nil and it's probably safer than walking or cycling at that point(you basically sit for an hour in a metal cage that's barely moving, surrounded by other barely moving metal cages). Yes, there is still a chance someone else around you could be drunk or speeding or distracted, but if you are sitting in an 8-lane jam that's not really going to do much damage.

pc86 9y ago

This is not commercial aviation, this is general aviation (even if it's commercial in nature). GA is more dangerous than driving, roughly comparable to riding a motorcycle, and that's being optimistic.

danielvf 9y ago
Strong agreement - no sane company would operate a taxi company at the current General Aviation safety rates. They are going to have to do a whole, whole lot better. Getting safer seems like it could be possible, but it's going to be an enormous amount of work.
TylerE 9y ago
There is no such thing as "commercial general aviation". Once you're accepting fee-for-service you are a commercial carrier with all the regulations that go along with that.
- pc86 9y ago
  Just because you're getting a paycheck doesn't make your Skyhawk magically as safe as a 787. This is decidedly in the GA category in terms of safety.
  - TylerE 9y ago
    No it doesn't. But someone flying commercially, even in a Cessna is going to have quite a bit more training than Joe Pilot who flys 10 hours a year. A commercial and IFR certificate at the very least, and will also have to pass more stringent and more frequent medical exams.

gambiting 9y ago

These "driving related" injuries and deaths stats are almost always skewed because they include fatalities/injuries for drunk driving and night time driving. Someone only driving to work and back is at an absolutely minuscule risk of injury/death from driving.

notheguyouthink 9y ago
Not that it's statistically relevant, but my drive to work feels like my most dangerous drive, by far. An interstate that seems to have a fatal accident on it weekly, of which I'm usually within an affected time window. Still not saying I'm narrowly avoiding death or anything, but man, the sheer volume of people going to work on the interstate every morning and night causes so many wrecks.
thaumaturgy 9y ago
I'm happy to accept ~pc86's correction up above, but I disagree with this rebuttal. The risk is minuscule in the absolute sense (several hundred fatalities per billion miles), and if you are driving drunk (or tired, or on painkillers, or while texting), your odds of collision certainly go up. But just because you aren't doing those things, doesn't make you any less at risk from other people doing those things. You are still on the road, surrounded by, in some areas, hundreds or thousands of deadly machines operated by people who are generally almost capable of handling them. I just finished an excellent book on this, "A Deadly Wandering", which examines distracted driving specifically but also touches on a few other related subjects. In the primary case that the book follows, and in the few others it mentions, distracted drivers walked away from wrecks where they had killed innocent other passengers or motorists. Being in a car (or bike, or motorcycle) on the road is one of the most dangerous things the average person does on a regular basis.
- gambiting 9y ago
  Absolutely, I'm just saying that the risk you are in changes depending where you are and what you do, there is an average amount of risk but it doesn't apply to everyone. I understand that some people have very dangerous commutes, but for some it's literally 10 miles of traffic moving at <10mph 99% of the time. If that's your "driving" then the risk of having a life destroying accident is almost nil and it's probably safer than walking or cycling at that point(you basically sit for an hour in a metal cage that's barely moving, surrounded by other barely moving metal cages). Yes, there is still a chance someone else around you could be drunk or speeding or distracted, but if you are sitting in an 8-lane jam that's not really going to do much damage.