6 ms·

Agree with most of what you say, but two open questions- debt alone on $500k amounts to $180/day (10yr am, 6%). Then there’s cost of energy, dead time during re

Agree with most of what you say, but two open questions- debt alone on $500k amounts to $180/day (10yr am, 6%). Then there’s cost of energy, dead time during recharge, dead leg trips to the next customer, dead let to charge port, maintenance will be rigorous even if the plane doesn’t need it because FAA. Landing fees while be high for urban landing points, plus ground crew at some locations. “Max $100/hr” is way low, even Uber sits around that level for a $30k vehicle with 2x the efficiency. Second- I have a hard one understanding how this could approach the aerodynamics of a Cirrus. All those fans will be drag monsters. And a little side fun note on rooftop landing pads- ideally, a high rise has expose cooling towers on the roof, taking up most available space. Any rooftop landing facility would have to be constructed over that, at phenomenal cost per foot. Developers expect to get repaid handsomely for that kind of capex. If you aren’t landing rooftop, you are landing at an alternate location X blocks away, which could be a real drag of the other kind.. There is DEFINITELY a market for this plane, and it’s bigger than current heli, but it’s probably not ubiquitous air taxi service

programbreeding 9y ago
I imagine this same conversation when the car was first becoming a reality. You have to start somewhere.
- soVeryTired 9y ago
  Also the hovercraft - it's just that those turned out to be pretty niche.
jgalt212 9y ago
Great video on the Pan Am building rooftop helicopter service to NYC area airports. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nbz5VFilxY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nbz5VFilxY
- chiph 9y ago
  The family flew on one of New York Airways' helicopters from Newark to Kennedy back in 1974. Pretty exciting stuff for a 4th grader!
- hagurganus 9y ago
  This was an awesome video; I had no idea this type of thing ever existed. Thanks for sharing!
- ethagknight 9y ago
  Blade, the company at the end of that video, had a fatal crash this week.
danielvf 9y ago
I'd love a link to that Uber cost number - I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around a car costing more than $100/hr to operate. Even a New York City cab, rented to a driver from a profit making cab company and including the cost of the medallion was $120 for twelve hours of driving. A chunk of a GA aircraft's operational cost is annual maintenance. By flying more per year, the operational cost of an aircraft goes down. I think you can get the operational of a Cirrus down to $100/hr if you fly it 500 hours per year. However, operating this aircraft at scale would seem to have some real maintenance advantages beyond what you would typically see for General Aviation: - There's only one moving part in an electric motor, vs all the complexity of a [edit: 6 cylinder] piston aircraft engine. - You can specialize your people, procedures, and facility around a single aircraft type. - You can swap out engines and avionics and work on them while the aircraft returns to flying. And yes, this won't be as aerodynamic as a Cirrus, but it should be similar to a GA single engine aircraft, rather than either a quadcopter or a helicopter.
- opwieurposiu 9y ago
  GA aircraft engines are rarely V6 they are mostly flat 6 or flat 4 for smaller planes. If you go to the website for Lycoming as an example you see they are all flat except for one I4. https://www.lycoming.com/engines https://www.lycoming.com/engines
- godelski 9y ago
  Most GA aircraft don't cost 500k. Just want to put that out there. And I see Skyhawks and Cherokees go for $90-$150/hr.
- ethagknight 9y ago
  Thanks for thoughtful response! - I was just looking at the cost for me to take Uber across town. My experience has a lot of 30 minute trips in different cities, which has equated to $50 rides on UberX, and that is always between urban centers and airports (i.e. ideal connecting points). My assumption would be that Uber gets as close to operating cost as feasible, if not cheating on the backs of the drivers, plus Uber hasn't actually made money (but thats a different discussion!). So thats my $100/hr for an Uber. Never mind the fact that personal car ownership is far cheaper. - With very limited experience with general aviation, I have chartered a few private flights- for around $4000 for a day trip on a late model KingAir. Not worth much for this comparison. But thats why I looked to Uber as the absolute low end, because the best economics of air travel will probably only approach the best economics of surface travel. - I just don't know why Cora's aerodynamics wouldn't look a heck of a lot like a quadcopter. My background is Civil engineering (im a static kind of guy!) so i dont know much here. All those extra surfaces add a lot of drag, no way around it. I wonder if they could turn the props and feather them up so they all align and provide lift with forward flight? I'm sure Eric Allison (engineering lead) is on top of it. Dont get me wrong, I think its great stuff and I look forward to its development. However, there are a lot more problems to solve than just perfecting the actual aircraft. Its a whole ecosystem, not just an air shuttle. Recent history has given us a few great entrepreneurs who have overcome a multitude of problems in their space, but i definitely wouldn't bet too early on something like this without a little more to show for it. The New Zealand partnership will be a good prooving grounds. EDIT: im happy to be wrong on all this!
Beltiras 9y ago
You can use battery swapouts instead of grounding the vehicle.
thaumaturgy 9y ago
I'm surprised almost nobody's talking about the relative change in safety yet. Transportation accidents are the leading cause of "unintentional injury" deaths (i.e., not disease, suicide, or homicide) [1]. Although the absolute rates are somewhat low (7.28 fatalities per billion miles for cars and light trucks), you are approximately 100 times more likely to die while driving than flying (table 2 in [1]). [1]: http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~ipsavage/436.pdf http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~ipsavage/436.pdf
- pc86 9y ago
  This is not commercial aviation, this is general aviation (even if it's commercial in nature). GA is more dangerous than driving, roughly comparable to riding a motorcycle, and that's being optimistic.
  - danielvf 9y ago
    Strong agreement - no sane company would operate a taxi company at the current General Aviation safety rates. They are going to have to do a whole, whole lot better. Getting safer seems like it could be possible, but it's going to be an enormous amount of work.
  - TylerE 9y ago
    There is no such thing as "commercial general aviation". Once you're accepting fee-for-service you are a commercial carrier with all the regulations that go along with that.
    - pc86 9y ago
      Just because you're getting a paycheck doesn't make your Skyhawk magically as safe as a 787. This is decidedly in the GA category in terms of safety.
      - TylerE 9y ago
        No it doesn't. But someone flying commercially, even in a Cessna is going to have quite a bit more training than Joe Pilot who flys 10 hours a year. A commercial and IFR certificate at the very least, and will also have to pass more stringent and more frequent medical exams.

programbreeding 9y ago

I imagine this same conversation when the car was first becoming a reality. You have to start somewhere.

soVeryTired 9y ago
Also the hovercraft - it's just that those turned out to be pretty niche.

jgalt212 9y ago

Great video on the Pan Am building rooftop helicopter service to NYC area airports. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nbz5VFilxY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nbz5VFilxY

chiph 9y ago
The family flew on one of New York Airways' helicopters from Newark to Kennedy back in 1974. Pretty exciting stuff for a 4th grader!
hagurganus 9y ago
This was an awesome video; I had no idea this type of thing ever existed. Thanks for sharing!
ethagknight 9y ago
Blade, the company at the end of that video, had a fatal crash this week.

danielvf 9y ago

I'd love a link to that Uber cost number - I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around a car costing more than $100/hr to operate. Even a New York City cab, rented to a driver from a profit making cab company and including the cost of the medallion was $120 for twelve hours of driving. A chunk of a GA aircraft's operational cost is annual maintenance. By flying more per year, the operational cost of an aircraft goes down. I think you can get the operational of a Cirrus down to $100/hr if you fly it 500 hours per year. However, operating this aircraft at scale would seem to have some real maintenance advantages beyond what you would typically see for General Aviation: - There's only one moving part in an electric motor, vs all the complexity of a [edit: 6 cylinder] piston aircraft engine. - You can specialize your people, procedures, and facility around a single aircraft type. - You can swap out engines and avionics and work on them while the aircraft returns to flying. And yes, this won't be as aerodynamic as a Cirrus, but it should be similar to a GA single engine aircraft, rather than either a quadcopter or a helicopter.

opwieurposiu 9y ago
GA aircraft engines are rarely V6 they are mostly flat 6 or flat 4 for smaller planes. If you go to the website for Lycoming as an example you see they are all flat except for one I4. https://www.lycoming.com/engines https://www.lycoming.com/engines
godelski 9y ago
Most GA aircraft don't cost 500k. Just want to put that out there. And I see Skyhawks and Cherokees go for $90-$150/hr.
ethagknight 9y ago
Thanks for thoughtful response! - I was just looking at the cost for me to take Uber across town. My experience has a lot of 30 minute trips in different cities, which has equated to $50 rides on UberX, and that is always between urban centers and airports (i.e. ideal connecting points). My assumption would be that Uber gets as close to operating cost as feasible, if not cheating on the backs of the drivers, plus Uber hasn't actually made money (but thats a different discussion!). So thats my $100/hr for an Uber. Never mind the fact that personal car ownership is far cheaper. - With very limited experience with general aviation, I have chartered a few private flights- for around $4000 for a day trip on a late model KingAir. Not worth much for this comparison. But thats why I looked to Uber as the absolute low end, because the best economics of air travel will probably only approach the best economics of surface travel. - I just don't know why Cora's aerodynamics wouldn't look a heck of a lot like a quadcopter. My background is Civil engineering (im a static kind of guy!) so i dont know much here. All those extra surfaces add a lot of drag, no way around it. I wonder if they could turn the props and feather them up so they all align and provide lift with forward flight? I'm sure Eric Allison (engineering lead) is on top of it. Dont get me wrong, I think its great stuff and I look forward to its development. However, there are a lot more problems to solve than just perfecting the actual aircraft. Its a whole ecosystem, not just an air shuttle. Recent history has given us a few great entrepreneurs who have overcome a multitude of problems in their space, but i definitely wouldn't bet too early on something like this without a little more to show for it. The New Zealand partnership will be a good prooving grounds. EDIT: im happy to be wrong on all this!

Beltiras 9y ago

You can use battery swapouts instead of grounding the vehicle.

thaumaturgy 9y ago

I'm surprised almost nobody's talking about the relative change in safety yet. Transportation accidents are the leading cause of "unintentional injury" deaths (i.e., not disease, suicide, or homicide) [1]. Although the absolute rates are somewhat low (7.28 fatalities per billion miles for cars and light trucks), you are approximately 100 times more likely to die while driving than flying (table 2 in [1]). [1]: http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~ipsavage/436.pdf http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~ipsavage/436.pdf

pc86 9y ago
This is not commercial aviation, this is general aviation (even if it's commercial in nature). GA is more dangerous than driving, roughly comparable to riding a motorcycle, and that's being optimistic.
- danielvf 9y ago
  Strong agreement - no sane company would operate a taxi company at the current General Aviation safety rates. They are going to have to do a whole, whole lot better. Getting safer seems like it could be possible, but it's going to be an enormous amount of work.
- TylerE 9y ago
  There is no such thing as "commercial general aviation". Once you're accepting fee-for-service you are a commercial carrier with all the regulations that go along with that.
  - pc86 9y ago
    Just because you're getting a paycheck doesn't make your Skyhawk magically as safe as a 787. This is decidedly in the GA category in terms of safety.
    - TylerE 9y ago
      No it doesn't. But someone flying commercially, even in a Cessna is going to have quite a bit more training than Joe Pilot who flys 10 hours a year. A commercial and IFR certificate at the very least, and will also have to pass more stringent and more frequent medical exams.