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>Except the groups I referred to were university establishments and thinktanks. The official response from the establishments of elite universities and the out

>Except the groups I referred to were university establishments and thinktanks. The official response from the establishments of elite universities and the output of think tanks is almost the definition of "out of touch elites", no? >Much of the outroar came not from the 'elites', so much as middle and lower class professors... Not in the media read by people in Lincolnshire. They don't hear the outroar coming from those middle and lower class professors going on strike either. I appreciate that you might have had mates who were postdocs who had legitimate reason to be worried about science funding (so do I!), but not everybody does. >It doesn't take a genius to see that this is not a beneficial position to be in as a country. What you described above was the effect of hard Brexit. Hard Brexit wasn't even on the cards until some time after the vote, and is still not confirmed even now. >The deal still hasn't been made, but we can still predict that the outcome of this will be negative It's entirely possible to extract some good from this process even if it was better that it was never started. However, paying little attention to the actual shape of the deal, which is highly mutable, and simply re-iterating that any kind of Brexit is the worst possible thing that could ever be happening to us isn't going to do that. One way or the other it's happening. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

fao_ 9y ago
> The official response from the establishments of elite universities and the output of think tanks is almost the definition of "out of touch elites", no? > I appreciate that you might have had mates who were postdocs who had legitimate reason to be worried about science funding (so do I!), but not everybody does. Hah. No. I was talking explicitly about the many professors that specialized in law and economics relating to the EU explicitly raising their voices that this would put the UK in a terrible financial and political position. > What you described above was the effect of hard Brexit. No. What I described above is the effect of Brexit. > Hard Brexit wasn't even on the cards until some time after the vote, and is still not confirmed even now. Eh? Teresa May has been consistent that she wants a "hard brexit", to the point of calling for it months before she defined the fucking term! (Finally defined in http://time.com/4635762/theresa-may-hard-brexit-britain/ http://time.com/4635762/theresa-may-hard-brexit-britain/) You seem to be at a severe information deficit concerning the information available to the public about brexit, before the brexit process was enacted. Please read https://voxeu.org/article/economics-brexit-pre-referendum-videos-and-columns-voxeuorg https://voxeu.org/article/economics-brexit-pre-referendum-vi...
- crdoconnor 9y ago
  >Hah. No. I was talking explicitly about the many professors that specialized in law and economics relating to the EU Who couldn't be more out of touch. In 2008 the Queen was at the LSE talking to exactly these kinds of people and, quite famously asked "why did none of you see the financial crisis coming?". None of them had a good answer. Their reputation is literally "the guys who were completely blindsided by the last economic storm". In 2016 they staked their reputation on there being another storm - high unemployment and recession to follow the vote. Two years later we can look back and confirm that once again, they were wrong. We still haven't had a contractionary quarter and unemployment is slightly down. Now they are telling us that once we finally exit that the promised spike in unemployment and recession will happen. Frankly they might be right this time, but they'll still simply be useful idiots. >No. What I described above is the effect of Brexit. No, you didn't. Among other things, you mentioned negotiating a trade deal. If we stay in the common market there is no need for that. That option was firmly on the table during the vote and even now it still hasn't been taken completely off. >Eh? Teresa May has been consistent that she wants a "hard brexit" No she hasn't. Originally when she asked what Brexit meant she famously said "Brexit means Brexit" much to the chagrin of... well, everybody. She's flip flopped all over the place since then. >You seem to be at a severe information deficit concerning the information available to the public about brexit. Please read https://voxeu.org/article/economics-brexit-pre-referendum-vi.. https://voxeu.org/article/economics-brexit-pre-referendum-vi.... Yeah? Try reading your article from 2016. Pay attention specifically to the bit where they promised high unemployment and recession following the cataclysmic effect of the vote and went "this is probably right, but it's too early to tell". Well, it's 2018 and it's no longer too early to tell! Unemployment went slightly down and we've yet to experience a single quarter of contraction (and it's not like those are rare, I think 2013 was the last one?). Try comparing your economists' predictions to reality once in a while. You might be surprised. Ironically, I find a lot of people who are pro Brexit to be less surprised about the facts I've just shared. That's not because they're smarter, it's just because they are fed a different kind of propaganda.
pjc50 9y ago
> What you described above was the effect of hard Brexit. Hard Brexit wasn't even on the cards until some time after the vote, and is still not confirmed even now. There are only three real options: - retain some kind of single market, which requires retaining freedom of movement; this is the Norway option, where we give up our vote but continue paying. Hard to see what the advantage of this is, and it will not give the government the right to deport Polish plumbers and nursing home workers that so many people desperately want to do. This is "pointless Brexit", where we become marginally worse off but the Leavers aren't satisfied. Care home worker availability is already becoming a problem: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-care-homes-skills-crisis-nurse-return-eu-europe-england-research-recruitment-a7917801.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-care-... - Hard Brexit. No freedom of movement, customs barriers, no free movement of services. Some sort of fiasco on the Irish border, the M20 is turned into a lorry park ( https://www.ft.com/content/7ff7c97c-b33c-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399 https://www.ft.com/content/7ff7c97c-b33c-11e7-a398-73d59db9e... ), and the UK's financial services and just-in-time manufacturing businesses start having to move to Europe. - Disaster Brexit. The UK persists, Greece-style, in asking for options which the EU has already agreed not to give them. No decisions are made and no planning is done. Home Office issues "go home" notices to the 3 million EU nationals here informing them that they are now illegal immigrants and it is illegal for them to have a bank account, be a tenant, be employed or go to the doctor. Those who have not yet fled, perhaps because they're married to UK nationals who no longer have the right to move to the EU, start mass demonstrations. Retail logistics snarls up and empty shelves start appearing on shops. We go back to the Winter of Discontent.

fao_ 9y ago

> The official response from the establishments of elite universities and the output of think tanks is almost the definition of "out of touch elites", no? > I appreciate that you might have had mates who were postdocs who had legitimate reason to be worried about science funding (so do I!), but not everybody does. Hah. No. I was talking explicitly about the many professors that specialized in law and economics relating to the EU explicitly raising their voices that this would put the UK in a terrible financial and political position. > What you described above was the effect of hard Brexit. No. What I described above is the effect of Brexit. > Hard Brexit wasn't even on the cards until some time after the vote, and is still not confirmed even now. Eh? Teresa May has been consistent that she wants a "hard brexit", to the point of calling for it months before she defined the fucking term! (Finally defined in http://time.com/4635762/theresa-may-hard-brexit-britain/ http://time.com/4635762/theresa-may-hard-brexit-britain/) You seem to be at a severe information deficit concerning the information available to the public about brexit, before the brexit process was enacted. Please read https://voxeu.org/article/economics-brexit-pre-referendum-videos-and-columns-voxeuorg https://voxeu.org/article/economics-brexit-pre-referendum-vi...

crdoconnor 9y ago
>Hah. No. I was talking explicitly about the many professors that specialized in law and economics relating to the EU Who couldn't be more out of touch. In 2008 the Queen was at the LSE talking to exactly these kinds of people and, quite famously asked "why did none of you see the financial crisis coming?". None of them had a good answer. Their reputation is literally "the guys who were completely blindsided by the last economic storm". In 2016 they staked their reputation on there being another storm - high unemployment and recession to follow the vote. Two years later we can look back and confirm that once again, they were wrong. We still haven't had a contractionary quarter and unemployment is slightly down. Now they are telling us that once we finally exit that the promised spike in unemployment and recession will happen. Frankly they might be right this time, but they'll still simply be useful idiots. >No. What I described above is the effect of Brexit. No, you didn't. Among other things, you mentioned negotiating a trade deal. If we stay in the common market there is no need for that. That option was firmly on the table during the vote and even now it still hasn't been taken completely off. >Eh? Teresa May has been consistent that she wants a "hard brexit" No she hasn't. Originally when she asked what Brexit meant she famously said "Brexit means Brexit" much to the chagrin of... well, everybody. She's flip flopped all over the place since then. >You seem to be at a severe information deficit concerning the information available to the public about brexit. Please read https://voxeu.org/article/economics-brexit-pre-referendum-vi.. https://voxeu.org/article/economics-brexit-pre-referendum-vi.... Yeah? Try reading your article from 2016. Pay attention specifically to the bit where they promised high unemployment and recession following the cataclysmic effect of the vote and went "this is probably right, but it's too early to tell". Well, it's 2018 and it's no longer too early to tell! Unemployment went slightly down and we've yet to experience a single quarter of contraction (and it's not like those are rare, I think 2013 was the last one?). Try comparing your economists' predictions to reality once in a while. You might be surprised. Ironically, I find a lot of people who are pro Brexit to be less surprised about the facts I've just shared. That's not because they're smarter, it's just because they are fed a different kind of propaganda.

pjc50 9y ago

> What you described above was the effect of hard Brexit. Hard Brexit wasn't even on the cards until some time after the vote, and is still not confirmed even now. There are only three real options: - retain some kind of single market, which requires retaining freedom of movement; this is the Norway option, where we give up our vote but continue paying. Hard to see what the advantage of this is, and it will not give the government the right to deport Polish plumbers and nursing home workers that so many people desperately want to do. This is "pointless Brexit", where we become marginally worse off but the Leavers aren't satisfied. Care home worker availability is already becoming a problem: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-care-homes-skills-crisis-nurse-return-eu-europe-england-research-recruitment-a7917801.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-care-... - Hard Brexit. No freedom of movement, customs barriers, no free movement of services. Some sort of fiasco on the Irish border, the M20 is turned into a lorry park ( https://www.ft.com/content/7ff7c97c-b33c-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399 https://www.ft.com/content/7ff7c97c-b33c-11e7-a398-73d59db9e... ), and the UK's financial services and just-in-time manufacturing businesses start having to move to Europe. - Disaster Brexit. The UK persists, Greece-style, in asking for options which the EU has already agreed not to give them. No decisions are made and no planning is done. Home Office issues "go home" notices to the 3 million EU nationals here informing them that they are now illegal immigrants and it is illegal for them to have a bank account, be a tenant, be employed or go to the doctor. Those who have not yet fled, perhaps because they're married to UK nationals who no longer have the right to move to the EU, start mass demonstrations. Retail logistics snarls up and empty shelves start appearing on shops. We go back to the Winter of Discontent.