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There is one effect you're missing, the part where those countries which were dependent on income from fossil fuels won't just quietly subside back into their p

There is one effect you're missing, the part where those countries which were dependent on income from fossil fuels won't just quietly subside back into their previous state of being. While Venezuela has already dealt with the problem by self-immolation the same can not be said about two other big oil and gas exporters: the middle eastern countries and Russia. To start with the latter, Russia stands to lose not only a major source of income if the demand for natural gas were to plummet but also a lot of influence which they hitherto exert by virtue of having control over the natural gas supply for a large part of Europe. The country has the potential to replace the income from gas with income from other natural resources and from industrial output but they'll need time to gear up their economy for the switch. The middle east is a different story. Apart from oil and gas exports the region does not have much to offer in the way of natural resources or industrial output. When - not if - oil and gas end their dominance in the energy hierarchy the region will be hit hard, also due to the fact that, in contrast to Norway, no substantial provisions have been made for this scenario. Some countries are trying to find alternative sources of income, e.g. Dubai which seems to be set to become the Las Vegas of the middle east but this scenario is only feasible as long as their is an audience which is willing and able to spend lavishly. When the oil money goes, so does that audience. Fusion energy will be a boon in the long term but in the short time it will have a destabilising effect in at least this region.

jdhn 9y ago
The demand for Russian natural gas will only plummet if there's a huge shift from natgas heating to electric heat, and that would take hundreds of billions (if not trillions) of Euros to accomplish.
- wongarsu 9y ago
  If electricity would be free, I would convert to electric heating in a heartbeat. Replacing a gas burner with an electric coil should be pretty cheap compared to the yearly costs of heating. The problem with that is that electricity isn't free. Even if energy production suddenly became basically free and we removed taxes and renewable energy charges, I would still pay €0.07/kWh just for using the power grid. And that's unlikely to go down since the grid would need massive upgrades to handle large but cheap fusion plants.
  - Balero 9y ago
    Using fusion would only cut the cost of electricity by about a third. About the third goes on maintaining the grid infrastructure, a third goes on building and running the power stations, and a third on the fuel. Fusion is great, but it's not 'electricity too cheap to meter'
- Yetanfou 9y ago
  There will be, whatever way the wind blows. The Netherlands is a good example here, a country which produces natural gas itself and moved from coal and oil to natural gas heating (and cooking) after natural gas was found in Slochteren in the province of Groningen in 1959 [1]. Back then all houses (with few exceptions) were connected to the natural gas distribution network. Natural gas was the mainstay of both the Dutch economy for decades to come. This is changing, rapidly. All new houses will be fossil-free in 2050, many houses already are. I bought a new house in 1995 which was not connected to the gas pipes, heating was done through surplus heat from a nearby power plant. In Sweden - where I live now - geothermal heating using heat pumps is currently the biggest growing sector in a market where around 40% of houses uses some form of electric heating [2 (Swedish)] due to a push from the government in the '60s to move to (then cheap) electric heating. Both Sweden and the Netherlands are highly developed countries which are in the forefront of developments so this does not mean all countries will immediately dump natural gas. It does give an idea of where developments are going though, especially seen in the light of rising tensions between gas-producing countries and those which are dependent on them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groningen_gas_field https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groningen_gas_field [2] http://www.varmemarknad.se/pdf/Varmemarknad_Sverige_sammanfattning.pdf http://www.varmemarknad.se/pdf/Varmemarknad_Sverige_sammanfa...

jdhn 9y ago

The demand for Russian natural gas will only plummet if there's a huge shift from natgas heating to electric heat, and that would take hundreds of billions (if not trillions) of Euros to accomplish.

wongarsu 9y ago
If electricity would be free, I would convert to electric heating in a heartbeat. Replacing a gas burner with an electric coil should be pretty cheap compared to the yearly costs of heating. The problem with that is that electricity isn't free. Even if energy production suddenly became basically free and we removed taxes and renewable energy charges, I would still pay €0.07/kWh just for using the power grid. And that's unlikely to go down since the grid would need massive upgrades to handle large but cheap fusion plants.
- Balero 9y ago
  Using fusion would only cut the cost of electricity by about a third. About the third goes on maintaining the grid infrastructure, a third goes on building and running the power stations, and a third on the fuel. Fusion is great, but it's not 'electricity too cheap to meter'
Yetanfou 9y ago
There will be, whatever way the wind blows. The Netherlands is a good example here, a country which produces natural gas itself and moved from coal and oil to natural gas heating (and cooking) after natural gas was found in Slochteren in the province of Groningen in 1959 [1]. Back then all houses (with few exceptions) were connected to the natural gas distribution network. Natural gas was the mainstay of both the Dutch economy for decades to come. This is changing, rapidly. All new houses will be fossil-free in 2050, many houses already are. I bought a new house in 1995 which was not connected to the gas pipes, heating was done through surplus heat from a nearby power plant. In Sweden - where I live now - geothermal heating using heat pumps is currently the biggest growing sector in a market where around 40% of houses uses some form of electric heating [2 (Swedish)] due to a push from the government in the '60s to move to (then cheap) electric heating. Both Sweden and the Netherlands are highly developed countries which are in the forefront of developments so this does not mean all countries will immediately dump natural gas. It does give an idea of where developments are going though, especially seen in the light of rising tensions between gas-producing countries and those which are dependent on them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groningen_gas_field https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groningen_gas_field [2] http://www.varmemarknad.se/pdf/Varmemarknad_Sverige_sammanfattning.pdf http://www.varmemarknad.se/pdf/Varmemarknad_Sverige_sammanfa...