It's also entirely plausible that the SpaceX parts did their job and something the government insisted on using / was sending up didn't work as expected. Since

It's also entirely plausible that the SpaceX parts did their job and something the government insisted on using / was sending up didn't work as expected. Since failure is always possible, including from various forms of human error, and is often exacerbated by extreme conditions (such as launching to space) it is quite likely that we'll never know for sure. It really /would/ be nice if there was a mandatory sunset period for de-classification (which required /active/ effort to keep reviewing and punting classified status forward).