4 ms·

for this is be a valid argument, the sample mean has to be good estimator for the "true" mean, which is the case only for thin-tailed random variables. unfortun

by qwtel 9y ago

for this is be a valid argument, the sample mean has to be good estimator for the "true" mean, which is the case only for thin-tailed random variables. unfortunately, violence in humans is verifiably fat-tailed (short bursts of violence account for the vast majority of deaths). here other techniques for estimating the mean have to be used. this has been done by cirillo and taleb [1], and the results are sobering: there is no evidence for a drop in violence. in fact, there isn't sufficient data for any kind of claim (intuition: major conflicts account for the majority of deaths; the inter-arrival time of a major conflicts is 100 years (ballpark); therefore 60 years of relative peace are not sufficient). EDIT: removed preaching, since not relevant to the parent comment. [1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04722 https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04722

tim333 9y ago
Cirillo and taleb show as you say the decline in violence may be unproven. It still doesn't show anything has got worse though so it doesn't really fit with shubhamjain's point.
useryournoggin 9y ago
"Taleb’s article implies that Better Angels consists of 700 pages of fancy statistical extrapolations which lead to the conclusion that violent catastrophes have become impossible. He mistakenly refers to this as “The Long Peace.” In fact “The Long Peace” (the term is John Gaddis’s) refers specifically to the welldocumented post-1945 decline of wars among great powers and developed states. And the chapter with that title is one of six that describe historical reductions in rates of violence. Another chapter discusses the more tentative but still appreciable declines in civil war and terrorism since the end of the Cold War. The remaining four pertain to other kinds of violence: tribal raiding and feuding, violent personal crime, barbaric practices such as slavery and torture-executions, and violence on smaller scales such as lynching, rape, spousal abuse, spanking, hate crimes, and cruelty to animals. The book makes it clear that these developments obey very different statistical processes than those governing wars and terrorist attacks; not even Taleb, presumably, would expect a sudden, massive, unpredictable jump in human sacrifice, slave auctions, sodomy laws, or debtor’s prisons. So even if, as Taleb seems to believe, the danger from major war has not declined, we would have plenty of other declines of violence to explain. It’s an open question whether there are any common denominators behind these various declines. Better Angels considers some possibilities, while making it clear that these declines do not constitute a single phenomenon"

by qwtel 9y ago

tim333 9y ago

Cirillo and taleb show as you say the decline in violence may be unproven. It still doesn't show anything has got worse though so it doesn't really fit with shubhamjain's point.

useryournoggin 9y ago

"Taleb’s article implies that Better Angels consists of 700 pages of fancy statistical extrapolations which lead to the conclusion that violent catastrophes have become impossible. He mistakenly refers to this as “The Long Peace.” In fact “The Long Peace” (the term is John Gaddis’s) refers specifically to the welldocumented post-1945 decline of wars among great powers and developed states. And the chapter with that title is one of six that describe historical reductions in rates of violence. Another chapter discusses the more tentative but still appreciable declines in civil war and terrorism since the end of the Cold War. The remaining four pertain to other kinds of violence: tribal raiding and feuding, violent personal crime, barbaric practices such as slavery and torture-executions, and violence on smaller scales such as lynching, rape, spousal abuse, spanking, hate crimes, and cruelty to animals. The book makes it clear that these developments obey very different statistical processes than those governing wars and terrorist attacks; not even Taleb, presumably, would expect a sudden, massive, unpredictable jump in human sacrifice, slave auctions, sodomy laws, or debtor’s prisons. So even if, as Taleb seems to believe, the danger from major war has not declined, we would have plenty of other declines of violence to explain. It’s an open question whether there are any common denominators behind these various declines. Better Angels considers some possibilities, while making it clear that these declines do not constitute a single phenomenon"