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> It's "everyone thinks they're roughly 75th percentile." Unless you know that everyone thinks they're 75th percentile, and then you can assume it's the delude

> It's "everyone thinks they're roughly 75th percentile." Unless you know that everyone thinks they're 75th percentile, and then you can assume it's the deluded answer--and more likely, you're much closer to average. Eventually, this is not so much a question about intelligence, but self-awareness.

jerf 9y ago
"and more likely, you're much closer to average" Ah, yes, that resolves it nicely, all tied up with a bow. But... wait! If you're using that logic, it is itself probably very strong evidence that you're above average in intelligence! Crap. Just when we had this all figured out! (This is a "ha ha only serious" post; there's a serious point under it, too, but one better communicated this way than by just dumping it out.)
- mickronome 9y ago
  I think I agree, and then I couldn't help myself from writing the following. If almost everyone think they are 75th percentile, the reason for you being closer to the average is barely affected by the aforementioned fact, but because for most statistics over large populations, you are always more likely to be close to the average. It's the average. It does however inform you that if you feel like answering the 75th percentile, your answer will be quite certain to be incorrect, except obviously for the 25% of the people that's in that percentile. If you however does that inference, and realise you actually need to calculate the relative odds of the various answers given what we know of other people's answers to have a chance of a better than average answer, you are almost certainly in the 75th percentile. At least when it comes to understanding how tricky statistics can be, as that is an extremely rare skill to encounter. People almost always seem to assume I'm in the 99th percentile or above, with the notable exceptions of being 'really stupid' from time to time. I don't really know what stupid has as a numerical equivalent, but lets assume 1% for symmetry. Personally, I'm ambivalent between agreeing with the majority, and believing I'm quite a bit less gifted, maybe outright stupid. I'd say I believe that I'm in or above the 75th percentile about 25% of the time, which would seem like par for the course, on average.

jerf 9y ago

"and more likely, you're much closer to average" Ah, yes, that resolves it nicely, all tied up with a bow. But... wait! If you're using that logic, it is itself probably very strong evidence that you're above average in intelligence! Crap. Just when we had this all figured out! (This is a "ha ha only serious" post; there's a serious point under it, too, but one better communicated this way than by just dumping it out.)

mickronome 9y ago
I think I agree, and then I couldn't help myself from writing the following. If almost everyone think they are 75th percentile, the reason for you being closer to the average is barely affected by the aforementioned fact, but because for most statistics over large populations, you are always more likely to be close to the average. It's the average. It does however inform you that if you feel like answering the 75th percentile, your answer will be quite certain to be incorrect, except obviously for the 25% of the people that's in that percentile. If you however does that inference, and realise you actually need to calculate the relative odds of the various answers given what we know of other people's answers to have a chance of a better than average answer, you are almost certainly in the 75th percentile. At least when it comes to understanding how tricky statistics can be, as that is an extremely rare skill to encounter. People almost always seem to assume I'm in the 99th percentile or above, with the notable exceptions of being 'really stupid' from time to time. I don't really know what stupid has as a numerical equivalent, but lets assume 1% for symmetry. Personally, I'm ambivalent between agreeing with the majority, and believing I'm quite a bit less gifted, maybe outright stupid. I'd say I believe that I'm in or above the 75th percentile about 25% of the time, which would seem like par for the course, on average.