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That's to make it difficult for a player to calculate the odds of a particular hand. The odds of the overall game are still pre-defined and regulated. Casinos

That's to make it difficult for a player to calculate the odds of a particular hand. The odds of the overall game are still pre-defined and regulated. Casinos can't/won't promise that you'll make money by playing their games. Securities are generally purchased with the expectation that you'll make money, and are marketed up to the allowable line of suggesting they are good ways to make money. Allowing people to play a game where the odds are openly against them, vs. buying a security where they're being told the odds favor them but it may be otherwise, are very different propositions when you're asking if they're "fraud".

mancerayder 9y ago
That's to make it difficult for a player to calculate the odds of a particular hand. The odds of the overall game are still pre-defined and regulated. My Average Joe brain is too small to calculate probability when there are a bunch of hands involved, much less one. It is, however, large enough to place bets on which cryptocoins might be more useful than others, based on a lot of data and current event news that I have access to. Casinos can't/won't promise that you'll make money by playing their games. Securities are generally purchased with the expectation that you'll make money, and are marketed up to the allowable line of suggesting they are good ways to make money. I don't recall Coinbase or any exchange promising anything. And trading is just that - trading. There are waves of ups and downs of supply and demand, of various volumes of buys and sells that lead to intraday, intraweek swings in which you can attempt to play your 'hand'. Even if you don't believe in the underlying security, you can attempt to ride those waves using technology provided to you by GDAX or Bittrex or whatever - the entire order book is laid out for you to learn and think about, and speculate on. That's easier to parse than odds for .. a blackjack hand? Even a roulette wheel probability play requires some basic training in probability. The Casino ALWAYS wins, in aggregate. Allowing people to play a game where the odds are openly against them, vs. buying a security where they're being told the odds favor them but it may be otherwise, are very different propositions when you're asking if they're "fraud" Okay, fine, so then regulate the 'telling' part and not the 'playing' part. I don't recall being told that the odds favor me. I was presented with an interface that let me purchase these coins. There were no words telling me what to do or not to do. The only people telling people what to do are peers and various Internet news sources that no one is obliged to follow.
- tomkarlo 9y ago
  Consider the contrast between the two things you just said: * "place bets on which cryptocoins might be more useful than other" * "The Casino ALWAYS wins, in aggregate." In the former, you expect you have some better than even odds of winning money -- otherwise you wouldn't be doing it. In the latter you clearly understand that the odds are against you. See how different those are? We can argue about the ability to day-trade the cryptocurrency market, but it's hard to argue that the odds there are more clearly defined than in a casino. The reason there's a moving market is because we don't all agree on those odds. > Okay, fine, so then regulate the 'telling' part and not the 'playing' part They do regulate the telling part, quite tightly. But it's extremely difficult to control what people may tell each other outside the bounds of an issuance document. E.g. the SEC can't control what folks in r/bitcoin might be out there telling people as reasons to buy this Index fund.
  - mancerayder 9y ago
    Consider the contrast between the two things you just said: "place bets on which cryptocoins might be more useful than other" "The Casino ALWAYS wins, in aggregate." In the former, you expect you have some better than even odds of winning money -- otherwise you wouldn't be doing it. In the latter you clearly understand that the odds are against you. See how different those are? We can argue about the ability to day-trade the cryptocurrency market, but it's hard to argue that the odds there are more clearly defined than in a casino. The reason there's a moving market is because we don't all agree on those odds. Hold on a second. I never argued that the odds are more clearly defined. How in the world can you calculate political odds, legal odds, and other odds? Can you calculate odds on a commodities trade like oil? What happens if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel? If a new technology takes hold? All of these things are another way in which odds can't be calculated as cleanly as, say, a Blackjack hand. That many in the HN crowd consistently compare stocks and now cryptocurrency to casinos, and pad their argumentation that casinos are the same or better with an underlayment of probability calculation -- that shows the inherent mathematical bias of folks in tech. For how can one ascribe odds to purely human factors? Here's a probability prediction: chances of this comment being voted down > 50%.

mancerayder 9y ago

That's to make it difficult for a player to calculate the odds of a particular hand. The odds of the overall game are still pre-defined and regulated. My Average Joe brain is too small to calculate probability when there are a bunch of hands involved, much less one. It is, however, large enough to place bets on which cryptocoins might be more useful than others, based on a lot of data and current event news that I have access to. Casinos can't/won't promise that you'll make money by playing their games. Securities are generally purchased with the expectation that you'll make money, and are marketed up to the allowable line of suggesting they are good ways to make money. I don't recall Coinbase or any exchange promising anything. And trading is just that - trading. There are waves of ups and downs of supply and demand, of various volumes of buys and sells that lead to intraday, intraweek swings in which you can attempt to play your 'hand'. Even if you don't believe in the underlying security, you can attempt to ride those waves using technology provided to you by GDAX or Bittrex or whatever - the entire order book is laid out for you to learn and think about, and speculate on. That's easier to parse than odds for .. a blackjack hand? Even a roulette wheel probability play requires some basic training in probability. The Casino ALWAYS wins, in aggregate. Allowing people to play a game where the odds are openly against them, vs. buying a security where they're being told the odds favor them but it may be otherwise, are very different propositions when you're asking if they're "fraud" Okay, fine, so then regulate the 'telling' part and not the 'playing' part. I don't recall being told that the odds favor me. I was presented with an interface that let me purchase these coins. There were no words telling me what to do or not to do. The only people telling people what to do are peers and various Internet news sources that no one is obliged to follow.

tomkarlo 9y ago
Consider the contrast between the two things you just said: * "place bets on which cryptocoins might be more useful than other" * "The Casino ALWAYS wins, in aggregate." In the former, you expect you have some better than even odds of winning money -- otherwise you wouldn't be doing it. In the latter you clearly understand that the odds are against you. See how different those are? We can argue about the ability to day-trade the cryptocurrency market, but it's hard to argue that the odds there are more clearly defined than in a casino. The reason there's a moving market is because we don't all agree on those odds. > Okay, fine, so then regulate the 'telling' part and not the 'playing' part They do regulate the telling part, quite tightly. But it's extremely difficult to control what people may tell each other outside the bounds of an issuance document. E.g. the SEC can't control what folks in r/bitcoin might be out there telling people as reasons to buy this Index fund.
- mancerayder 9y ago
  Consider the contrast between the two things you just said: "place bets on which cryptocoins might be more useful than other" "The Casino ALWAYS wins, in aggregate." In the former, you expect you have some better than even odds of winning money -- otherwise you wouldn't be doing it. In the latter you clearly understand that the odds are against you. See how different those are? We can argue about the ability to day-trade the cryptocurrency market, but it's hard to argue that the odds there are more clearly defined than in a casino. The reason there's a moving market is because we don't all agree on those odds. Hold on a second. I never argued that the odds are more clearly defined. How in the world can you calculate political odds, legal odds, and other odds? Can you calculate odds on a commodities trade like oil? What happens if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel? If a new technology takes hold? All of these things are another way in which odds can't be calculated as cleanly as, say, a Blackjack hand. That many in the HN crowd consistently compare stocks and now cryptocurrency to casinos, and pad their argumentation that casinos are the same or better with an underlayment of probability calculation -- that shows the inherent mathematical bias of folks in tech. For how can one ascribe odds to purely human factors? Here's a probability prediction: chances of this comment being voted down > 50%.