I mean, part of the motivation of getting rid of nukes is that 'it's only a matter of time' before someone decides to use them. Nuclear weapons have been around

I mean, part of the motivation of getting rid of nukes is that 'it's only a matter of time' before someone decides to use them. Nuclear weapons have been around for less than 100 years, so it's not a lot of time to draw conclusions from about how likely Nuclear War is over N years.