I remember Nassim Taleb wrote a paper with a similar hypothesis a few years ago. If I recall correctly it was about why smart people shouldn't go into trading:

I remember Nassim Taleb wrote a paper with a similar hypothesis a few years ago. If I recall correctly it was about why smart people shouldn't go into trading: the role of luck is so great that even if you're one of the most skilled traders in the world you'll probably be outdone by someone less skilled but much luckier. It makes you wonder though: where does luck matter least? Probably in something like a trade that you turn into a business. There you get enough customers that the effects of luck probably cancel out over time.