4 ms·

If they had a convention of HN commenters in Vegas, it would probably be their best week ever. So many people sure they've found some secret way to beat the odd

If they had a convention of HN commenters in Vegas, it would probably be their best week ever. So many people sure they've found some secret way to beat the odds. It's a casino boss's dream come true.

jerrysievert 9y ago
funny, whenever I'm stuck at a casino (I've had an inordinate amount of "retreats" for work at casinos), I take $100 out of the ATM and hit up the lowest deck table of blackjack I can find, and spend the evening entertaining myself. when the inevitable "are you counting cards?" question comes, I simply answer, dryly, "no, I just understand math". it's usually at that point they close the table for the night.
erikb 9y ago
I think these "I found the magic trick to beat the casino" websites and movies are funded by casinos.
- lithos 9y ago
  Where do you think they'll be filming, and who'll be giving them access. I'm sure some teams will choose a Vegas film over another just for the perks.
to3m 9y ago
If you don't have a very high opinion of HN commenters, you'll probably assume that they get their opinions from Wikipedia. But that means they'll have a pretty good idea of whether a given game is good or bad in terms of odds. Besides, casinos will often give you free booze simply because you're sat at a table gambling. You don't have to actually win money to profit! You just need to start sensible, and then keep it going long enough to get drunk.
- scythe 9y ago
  Actually this is also a documented form of advantage gambling: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advantage_gambling http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advantage_gambling But my personal favorite, as a physics major, is the observation that most roulette wheels are unfair, due to slight asymmetries. If only you could get good surveillance of the roulette tables for a few days (hard to do alone), you could make a killing. On roulette!
  - lysp 9y ago
    I have heard that casinos sometimes have balls of slightly different size/weight. Basically to throw off anyone who might try this technique, as dealers often will throw very similarly for each spin.
    - singold 9y ago
      My grandfather worked at a casino decades ago, and they interchanged the roulettes between tables, I can't remember if it was daily or weekly
  - 6000001 9y ago
    I recall a case where a trio of Serbians managed to observe the roulette wheel bias and profit in a short timeframe. From memory their measurements gave them a window of 6 numbers to bet on, so 1/6 odds on a 1/37 roulette wheel. The best part is they were allowed to keep the winnings as they didn't actually tamper with the casino's equipment https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/dec/06/ukcrime.gambling https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/dec/06/ukcrime.gambling
  - blunte 9y ago
    The casinos are very well designed to identify people who win unnaturally often. They will shut you down if you become a threat to their business model. If you are satisfied in demonstrating at some low dollar amount that you can predict the outcomes reliably, then enjoy the success. But you won't get rich from it.
- PhasmaFelis 9y ago
  > Besides, casinos will often give you free booze simply because you're sat at a table gambling. You don't have to actually win money to profit! You just need to start sensible, and then keep it going long enough to get drunk. Yeah, but you have to get drunk with a bunch of random gamblers. I'd sooner go sober.
fizx 9y ago
They had RailsConf in Vegas in 2008. I spent half of my time in the poker room, breaking even, but made a key networking connection in a limo that jumpstarted my startup's success.
- noobermin 9y ago
  Is this satire or are you serious?
  - PhasmaFelis 9y ago
    What sounds satirical about it?
    - blunte 9y ago
      Because many of the key networking connections made in casinos tend to be of a fleeting, salacious nature. Perhaps you have a nice clean mind and didn't realize what you said ;).
      - tempay 9y ago
        Perhaps in a random casino. I'd during RailsConf your chances of finding useful connections are much better, especially if you're looking for them.
jonwachob91 9y ago
You must have missed the article and discussion this morning about a now (but not then) YC Alumni that beat the Massachusetts Cash Windfall lotto and literally made millions off it. They are proof enough that some games can be beaten. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16494280 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16494280
smoyer 9y ago
I've usually left Las Vegas with more money than I started with. I don't try to beat the odds, I try to find a $5 table that's full of drunk and/or newbie poker players. These players won't play the expensive tables but are also reasonably good losers when the stakes are lower. Don't try to game the house's portion ... if you do something against the rules they'll spot you. They won't bat an eye if you're taking money from the other guests though.
- blunte 9y ago
  There are certainly ways to play Vegas and win more than you lose. But doing so in a way that doesn't require a lot of time is not really possible. Ultimately, it's just another job. But if you enjoy the social aspect, then it makes sense.
  - smoyer 9y ago
    Yes ... and obviously at a $5 table I wasn't playing to make a living. It's an interesting way to pass the time when you're stuck there for a conference anyway (back then I went to Networld/InterOp every year). My main point was really that if you want to exploit any system, focus on the weakest link. Blackjack is played against the house so in the long term, the house will win a small percentage of the amount played. Here's one bonus observation that I learned the first time I was in Vegas - the papers that are handed out inside the convention center doors are generally related to the conference you're attending. The papers that are handed out outside the doors are NOT.

jerrysievert 9y ago

funny, whenever I'm stuck at a casino (I've had an inordinate amount of "retreats" for work at casinos), I take $100 out of the ATM and hit up the lowest deck table of blackjack I can find, and spend the evening entertaining myself. when the inevitable "are you counting cards?" question comes, I simply answer, dryly, "no, I just understand math". it's usually at that point they close the table for the night.

erikb 9y ago

I think these "I found the magic trick to beat the casino" websites and movies are funded by casinos.

lithos 9y ago
Where do you think they'll be filming, and who'll be giving them access. I'm sure some teams will choose a Vegas film over another just for the perks.

to3m 9y ago

If you don't have a very high opinion of HN commenters, you'll probably assume that they get their opinions from Wikipedia. But that means they'll have a pretty good idea of whether a given game is good or bad in terms of odds. Besides, casinos will often give you free booze simply because you're sat at a table gambling. You don't have to actually win money to profit! You just need to start sensible, and then keep it going long enough to get drunk.

scythe 9y ago
Actually this is also a documented form of advantage gambling: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advantage_gambling http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advantage_gambling But my personal favorite, as a physics major, is the observation that most roulette wheels are unfair, due to slight asymmetries. If only you could get good surveillance of the roulette tables for a few days (hard to do alone), you could make a killing. On roulette!
- lysp 9y ago
  I have heard that casinos sometimes have balls of slightly different size/weight. Basically to throw off anyone who might try this technique, as dealers often will throw very similarly for each spin.
  - singold 9y ago
    My grandfather worked at a casino decades ago, and they interchanged the roulettes between tables, I can't remember if it was daily or weekly
- 6000001 9y ago
  I recall a case where a trio of Serbians managed to observe the roulette wheel bias and profit in a short timeframe. From memory their measurements gave them a window of 6 numbers to bet on, so 1/6 odds on a 1/37 roulette wheel. The best part is they were allowed to keep the winnings as they didn't actually tamper with the casino's equipment https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/dec/06/ukcrime.gambling https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/dec/06/ukcrime.gambling
- blunte 9y ago
  The casinos are very well designed to identify people who win unnaturally often. They will shut you down if you become a threat to their business model. If you are satisfied in demonstrating at some low dollar amount that you can predict the outcomes reliably, then enjoy the success. But you won't get rich from it.
PhasmaFelis 9y ago
> Besides, casinos will often give you free booze simply because you're sat at a table gambling. You don't have to actually win money to profit! You just need to start sensible, and then keep it going long enough to get drunk. Yeah, but you have to get drunk with a bunch of random gamblers. I'd sooner go sober.

fizx 9y ago

They had RailsConf in Vegas in 2008. I spent half of my time in the poker room, breaking even, but made a key networking connection in a limo that jumpstarted my startup's success.

noobermin 9y ago
Is this satire or are you serious?
- PhasmaFelis 9y ago
  What sounds satirical about it?
  - blunte 9y ago
    Because many of the key networking connections made in casinos tend to be of a fleeting, salacious nature. Perhaps you have a nice clean mind and didn't realize what you said ;).
    - tempay 9y ago
      Perhaps in a random casino. I'd during RailsConf your chances of finding useful connections are much better, especially if you're looking for them.

jonwachob91 9y ago

You must have missed the article and discussion this morning about a now (but not then) YC Alumni that beat the Massachusetts Cash Windfall lotto and literally made millions off it. They are proof enough that some games can be beaten. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16494280 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16494280

smoyer 9y ago

I've usually left Las Vegas with more money than I started with. I don't try to beat the odds, I try to find a $5 table that's full of drunk and/or newbie poker players. These players won't play the expensive tables but are also reasonably good losers when the stakes are lower. Don't try to game the house's portion ... if you do something against the rules they'll spot you. They won't bat an eye if you're taking money from the other guests though.

blunte 9y ago
There are certainly ways to play Vegas and win more than you lose. But doing so in a way that doesn't require a lot of time is not really possible. Ultimately, it's just another job. But if you enjoy the social aspect, then it makes sense.
- smoyer 9y ago
  Yes ... and obviously at a $5 table I wasn't playing to make a living. It's an interesting way to pass the time when you're stuck there for a conference anyway (back then I went to Networld/InterOp every year). My main point was really that if you want to exploit any system, focus on the weakest link. Blackjack is played against the house so in the long term, the house will win a small percentage of the amount played. Here's one bonus observation that I learned the first time I was in Vegas - the papers that are handed out inside the convention center doors are generally related to the conference you're attending. The papers that are handed out outside the doors are NOT.