5 ms·

12 more years ;-) > By 2030, Statoil says, it hopes to bring the cost of floating offshore wind down to €40-60 per MWh ($50-74 per MWh).

by Gys 9y ago

toomuchtodo 9y ago
You should look at how inaccurate the EIA predicted renewable generation costs would decline (they predicted decades longer). Solar and battery manufacturing costs have been dropping ~80% every decade. Even if the cost decline curve starts to flatten, the fate of fossil and nuclear generators is sealed.
- CydeWeys 9y ago
  Wind power is big on-site construction though, which doesn't decrease much in cost over time (if at all). Yes, there'll be some economies in scale if we're making ten times as many turbine blades in the future versus now, but that won't come close to the orders of magnitude improvements we've seen in cost efficiency in photovoltaic cells over the past decades. To use a simple example outside of renewables, it's now more expensive than ever before in US history to complete a large infrastructure project (say, a new bridge across the Hudson River), but you can buy a $40 Raspberry Pi that has more processing capacity than all the billions of dollars worth of computers that existed in the 60s.
  - nicoburns 9y ago
    I think cost per mwh has been improving for wind not by reducing infrustructure construction costs, but by increasing the amount of power a given installation generates. If the generator/turbine is twice as efficient then the cost is halved...
    - toomuchtodo 9y ago
      This is correct. Turbine hub altitude and per turbine output continues to climb. https://i.imgur.com/7H0Jgdm.png https://i.imgur.com/7H0Jgdm.png
  - cjalmeida 9y ago
    Floating offshore wind has it's own manufacturing dynamics. For instance, you can build the whole structure in a shipyard and toll it, unlike onshore. Floating towers are definitely a revolution in wind farm building.
    - toomuchtodo 9y ago
      Also very importantly, this can keep shipyards busy building continuously, which is superior to the usual shipbuilding boom/bust cycles. (I found several citations around boom/bust cycles, but mostly paywalled [WSJ, Economist]; Google if you're interested)
      - jopsen 9y ago
        Any reason to believe wind farminh won't follow the same economic mood swings?
        deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
        usrusr 9y ago
        Wind generators would be very price elastic: if an idle shipyard makes a desperate offer, the whole profitability threshold shifts and the energy market is impossible to completely saturate (worst case you'd have so much energy that it would be economical to synthesize hydrocarbons from thin air, to pump them into the ground for CO2 credits). Also, look at it from the other side: the actors (states) who might be interested in propping up shipyards have very little direct use for generic shipping. Even less if there is a shipping glut (which would typically be just the time when the shipyard would need the propping-up). Conventionally, the only realistic thing a state could do to keep the shipyards in business would be to order some warships. With floating wind, this would change, instead of getting something destructive that will keep costing money once it's there you could get something productive.
    - CydeWeys 9y ago
      What's the cost reduction of doing this? Wind blades, turbines, and towers are already built in factories; the only difference here appears to be that you don't need to do as much site prep or assembly on site? I'm sure it saves some money but I'd be surprised if it saves even half.
  - walshemj 9y ago
    And hell of a lot more for offshore
  - jopsen 9y ago
    Lots of the components in wind turbines are custom made, CNC milled, etc. with more scale and focus on cost optimizations they can get far. As for the bridge: the concrete business doesn't see a lot of innovation. Still if corrected for inflation and aiming for similar durability, it wouldn't surprise me if today's engineering can build cheaper bridges. After all, we've learned a thing or two about suspension bridges over the years.
  - jhayward 9y ago
    > Wind power is big on-site construction though, which doesn't decrease much in cost over time (if at all) False. Every industry has what's known as the learning curve. It is this curve which is responsible for e.g., the 90% drop in cost of solar panels since 2000. Wind turbine manufacture, blade manufacture, mooring, installation, maintenance, management, all are following a significant industrial learning curve and there is every reason to expect it to continue to behave like other industries.

12 more years ;-) > By 2030, Statoil says, it hopes to bring the cost of floating offshore wind down to €40-60 per MWh ($50-74 per MWh).

by Gys 9y ago

12 more years ;-) > By 2030, Statoil says, it hopes to bring the cost of floating offshore wind down to €40-60 per MWh ($50-74 per MWh).

toomuchtodo 9y ago

You should look at how inaccurate the EIA predicted renewable generation costs would decline (they predicted decades longer). Solar and battery manufacturing costs have been dropping ~80% every decade. Even if the cost decline curve starts to flatten, the fate of fossil and nuclear generators is sealed.

CydeWeys 9y ago
Wind power is big on-site construction though, which doesn't decrease much in cost over time (if at all). Yes, there'll be some economies in scale if we're making ten times as many turbine blades in the future versus now, but that won't come close to the orders of magnitude improvements we've seen in cost efficiency in photovoltaic cells over the past decades. To use a simple example outside of renewables, it's now more expensive than ever before in US history to complete a large infrastructure project (say, a new bridge across the Hudson River), but you can buy a $40 Raspberry Pi that has more processing capacity than all the billions of dollars worth of computers that existed in the 60s.
- nicoburns 9y ago
  I think cost per mwh has been improving for wind not by reducing infrustructure construction costs, but by increasing the amount of power a given installation generates. If the generator/turbine is twice as efficient then the cost is halved...
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    This is correct. Turbine hub altitude and per turbine output continues to climb. https://i.imgur.com/7H0Jgdm.png https://i.imgur.com/7H0Jgdm.png
- cjalmeida 9y ago
  Floating offshore wind has it's own manufacturing dynamics. For instance, you can build the whole structure in a shipyard and toll it, unlike onshore. Floating towers are definitely a revolution in wind farm building.
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    Also very importantly, this can keep shipyards busy building continuously, which is superior to the usual shipbuilding boom/bust cycles. (I found several citations around boom/bust cycles, but mostly paywalled [WSJ, Economist]; Google if you're interested)
    - jopsen 9y ago
      Any reason to believe wind farminh won't follow the same economic mood swings?
      - deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
      - usrusr 9y ago
        Wind generators would be very price elastic: if an idle shipyard makes a desperate offer, the whole profitability threshold shifts and the energy market is impossible to completely saturate (worst case you'd have so much energy that it would be economical to synthesize hydrocarbons from thin air, to pump them into the ground for CO2 credits). Also, look at it from the other side: the actors (states) who might be interested in propping up shipyards have very little direct use for generic shipping. Even less if there is a shipping glut (which would typically be just the time when the shipyard would need the propping-up). Conventionally, the only realistic thing a state could do to keep the shipyards in business would be to order some warships. With floating wind, this would change, instead of getting something destructive that will keep costing money once it's there you could get something productive.
  - CydeWeys 9y ago
    What's the cost reduction of doing this? Wind blades, turbines, and towers are already built in factories; the only difference here appears to be that you don't need to do as much site prep or assembly on site? I'm sure it saves some money but I'd be surprised if it saves even half.
- walshemj 9y ago
  And hell of a lot more for offshore
- jopsen 9y ago
  Lots of the components in wind turbines are custom made, CNC milled, etc. with more scale and focus on cost optimizations they can get far. As for the bridge: the concrete business doesn't see a lot of innovation. Still if corrected for inflation and aiming for similar durability, it wouldn't surprise me if today's engineering can build cheaper bridges. After all, we've learned a thing or two about suspension bridges over the years.
- jhayward 9y ago
  > Wind power is big on-site construction though, which doesn't decrease much in cost over time (if at all) False. Every industry has what's known as the learning curve. It is this curve which is responsible for e.g., the 90% drop in cost of solar panels since 2000. Wind turbine manufacture, blade manufacture, mooring, installation, maintenance, management, all are following a significant industrial learning curve and there is every reason to expect it to continue to behave like other industries.