On a related note, as a new parent, I’ve been inundated with advice where no sense of absolute risk or prior probability is given. For example, stuff like “don’

On a related note, as a new parent, I’ve been inundated with advice where no sense of absolute risk or prior probability is given. For example, stuff like “don’t sleep baby on stomach because of increased SIDS risk” or “not inducing at 41 weeks increases chance of stillbirth”. It’s like what am I supposed to do with that? Without additional quantification, it’s hard to do any kind of cost-benefit analysis. Things like convenience, sustainability, and financial burden matter too and you need to be able to find the right trade off. Even vague casual quantifications like “the chances are super duper low” would be sufficient in most cases to take action upon.