5 ms·

Sorry, how did you get to that 0.5%? I'm not sure it's correct. Haven't looked at it enough, but I was thinking that if relative risk of colorectal cancer incre

by slx26 9y ago

Sorry, how did you get to that 0.5%? I'm not sure it's correct. Haven't looked at it enough, but I was thinking that if relative risk of colorectal cancer increases by 18%, if there are ~40 cases per 100.000 people, then it's going from 0.04% to ~0.05%. Didn't even read the article, if anyone can run some numbers and clarify? (genuinely curious)

colin_mccabe 9y ago
Yes, you did it right. The parent comment was unfortunately incorrect. To me this is an absolute non-issue. Even if the research is free of bias and error (debatable), it's a tiny chance of cancer late in life. Spend your time worrying about almost anything else (diet, exercise, avoiding drugs), etc. and it will be orders of magnitude more important.
jdietrich 9y ago
There are 40 cases per 100,000 people in any given year. Your chance of developing colorectal cancer at any point in your life is about 4.3%, with a survival rate at five years of about 65%. An 18% increase in risk of developing colorectal cancer equates to about a 0.5% chance of dying prematurely. Some people will survive beyond five years but die of cancer anyway; I didn't bother factoring this in, partly because I'm lazy, partly because I couldn't find relevant data and partly because the median age at diagnosis for colorectal cancer is 67. https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/colorect.html https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/colorect.html
- fjsolwmv 9y ago
  Dying at 70 is barely premature. general physical health (obesity and strength) and accidents are far more an influence.
- riku_iki 9y ago
  > 0.5% chance of dying prematurely. > the median age at diagnosis for colorectal cancer is 67. So statistically speaking eating 50g of processed meat a day reduces your life expectancy by 3.2 days: (78 years life expectancy in US - 67 median age of getting cancer - 1 year of dying from cancer) * 0.005 chance of receiving cancer * 0.18 increase of cancer probability * 365 days.

by slx26 9y ago

colin_mccabe 9y ago

Yes, you did it right. The parent comment was unfortunately incorrect. To me this is an absolute non-issue. Even if the research is free of bias and error (debatable), it's a tiny chance of cancer late in life. Spend your time worrying about almost anything else (diet, exercise, avoiding drugs), etc. and it will be orders of magnitude more important.

jdietrich 9y ago

There are 40 cases per 100,000 people in any given year. Your chance of developing colorectal cancer at any point in your life is about 4.3%, with a survival rate at five years of about 65%. An 18% increase in risk of developing colorectal cancer equates to about a 0.5% chance of dying prematurely. Some people will survive beyond five years but die of cancer anyway; I didn't bother factoring this in, partly because I'm lazy, partly because I couldn't find relevant data and partly because the median age at diagnosis for colorectal cancer is 67. https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/colorect.html https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/colorect.html

fjsolwmv 9y ago
Dying at 70 is barely premature. general physical health (obesity and strength) and accidents are far more an influence.
riku_iki 9y ago
> 0.5% chance of dying prematurely. > the median age at diagnosis for colorectal cancer is 67. So statistically speaking eating 50g of processed meat a day reduces your life expectancy by 3.2 days: (78 years life expectancy in US - 67 median age of getting cancer - 1 year of dying from cancer) * 0.005 chance of receiving cancer * 0.18 increase of cancer probability * 365 days.