4 ms·
> Imagine a guidance from Apple saying they would make $2 per share with 47% probability. Investors will freak out. if that's all it said, sure, because that s
by sigstoat 9y ago
> Imagine a guidance from Apple saying they would make $2 per share with 47% probability. Investors will freak out.
if that's all it said, sure, because that sounds like apple just made some insanely high-variance bet. if instead apple provided some nice smooth probability distribution over possible earnings, folks would react much more reasonably.