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You could argue the Chinese system hasn't been properly tested in modern times. In other words, there's been no recession, no meaningful economic downturn which

You could argue the Chinese system hasn't been properly tested in modern times. In other words, there's been no recession, no meaningful economic downturn which really forces leaders to make very hard decisions and causes the population to become restive. The West on the otherhand had that in 2008, it survived although the repurcussions are still being felt (Trump). Can the Chinese avoid a serious recession forever? You would have to assume not, that will ultimately be the test of how well their system holds up.

coldtea 9y ago
>The West on the otherhand had that in 2008, it survived although the repurcussions are still being felt (Trump). Trump is hardly the repercussions though, and the West has hardly survived in the sense of "overcoming" the recession. Trump is a result of (and a reaction of the people to) the recession, and the recession (jobs lost, dwindling middle class, etc) still holds, even though figures paint a rosy pictures and those outside the affected masses hardly know better.
bsder 9y ago
> Can the Chinese avoid a serious recession forever? You would have to assume not, that will ultimately be the test of how well their system holds up. China is sitting on a knife edge, I suspect. There are all manner of things than can bring it crashing down. Automation--demographic imbalance(too many men)--nuke from North Korea. (As much as the West frets about North Korean nukes--practically all the major Chinese cities are closer. Can you imagine if North Korea nuked a Chinese city?) The problem is what will happen as the dinosaur falls. Dinosaurs can take a long time to die and cause a lot of damage while doing so.
saas_co_de 9y ago
Without markets you have no business cycle so yes they can avoid recession forever. The cost is the loss of benefits of markets. That is not just China though. Since 2008 the entire world is following the same interventionist policies.
hardlianotion 9y ago
I am very interested in what happens when the effect of the 1-child policy makes itself felt as the population ages. That will be a big test I think.
- beisner 9y ago
  I suspect that since this policy has been deliberately relaxed (now a 2-child policy) the government likely has some model for a changing demographic

coldtea 9y ago

>The West on the otherhand had that in 2008, it survived although the repurcussions are still being felt (Trump). Trump is hardly the repercussions though, and the West has hardly survived in the sense of "overcoming" the recession. Trump is a result of (and a reaction of the people to) the recession, and the recession (jobs lost, dwindling middle class, etc) still holds, even though figures paint a rosy pictures and those outside the affected masses hardly know better.

bsder 9y ago

> Can the Chinese avoid a serious recession forever? You would have to assume not, that will ultimately be the test of how well their system holds up. China is sitting on a knife edge, I suspect. There are all manner of things than can bring it crashing down. Automation--demographic imbalance(too many men)--nuke from North Korea. (As much as the West frets about North Korean nukes--practically all the major Chinese cities are closer. Can you imagine if North Korea nuked a Chinese city?) The problem is what will happen as the dinosaur falls. Dinosaurs can take a long time to die and cause a lot of damage while doing so.

saas_co_de 9y ago

Without markets you have no business cycle so yes they can avoid recession forever. The cost is the loss of benefits of markets. That is not just China though. Since 2008 the entire world is following the same interventionist policies.

hardlianotion 9y ago

I am very interested in what happens when the effect of the 1-child policy makes itself felt as the population ages. That will be a big test I think.

beisner 9y ago
I suspect that since this policy has been deliberately relaxed (now a 2-child policy) the government likely has some model for a changing demographic