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Yes, this is something we researched and thought about. The idea is "garbage in, garbage out". If the data input into the algorithm reflects a systemic bias, ob
by omarforgotpwd 9y ago
Yes, this is something we researched and thought about. The idea is "garbage in, garbage out". If the data input into the algorithm reflects a systemic bias, obviously any predictions are going to be a product of the input to some extent. Our predictions were based on the city's crime report data, which is clearly not an accurate picture of crime in the city, but it's what we've got. Sure, it's entirely possible that if police are dramatically over-policing certain poor or minority neighborhoods and generating a lot of crime report data based on those arrests that the predictions could potentially be affected. But poor and minority neighborhoods tend to under-report crimes compared to wealthier areas, so there is a balancing counter-effect to some extent. Another thing we've seen happen sometimes is systematic under-reporting or non-reporting of crimes to make the crime stats for the city look better, as the police department is often judged on these crime stats.
Ultimately we have to work with what we have and the police are responsible for maintaining high quality data and ethical standards, but I don't lose any sleep worrying about if my code systematically oppressed minorities for two reasons:
1.First of all, most police departments had separate predictions run per "district" and typically had a fixed number of officers allocated to each district. The idea that we were directing cops away from rich neighborhoods and having them go after the poor or minorities assumes that we had far more power than we actually did. The number of cops assigned to each city district / beat is a political or bureaucratic decision and not something our software is involved in.
2. Furthermore, our app was not directing the cops every move, nor was it trying to. We just told them "when you're not answering a call or doing anything else, when you have a spare minute, check if you're near a prediction box and go figure out why the computer flagged it as a high risk area. Maybe it's a parking lot and the lights have gone out encouraging car burglaries". And even as just a small slice of their time, we really had to push to get them to use the app because the way they saw it was "What does this stupid app know about my city that I, with 20 years of experience, don't know? One of these prediction boxes is in the middle of a lake". Based on what I saw from the analytics and usage logs, I think it would be tough to make a case that anyone was oppressed because the cops barely even used the thing! Not that I take these issues lightly, but I always laugh when people criticize PredPol or someone calls me a murderer on Twitter because it vastly overstates our impact. Maybe I should take it as a compliment that people really think I am powerful enough to direct police to oppress minorities using only a shitty rails app I wrote in my college dorm room. But whatever, you can't do or try anything new in this country today without getting dramatically criticized for it to fuel the internet-rage clickbait economy, so I guess it's just something all of us have to get used to. I haven't had a day to day role at the company for a few years, which makes it a lot easier not to worry about these things as well. But ultimately police using technology and data effectively can REDUCE bias and injustice AND make people safer. I think the questions the Verge presents are certainly worth asking, but based on my experience I do believe that the app I implemented helped more people than it harmed.
- majos 9y agoBut you don't have to work with the data you have. Nobody has to create a software start-up they don't believe in. If I'm reading your two points correctly, you don't worry about whether or not you made a bad tool because it wasn't ever clear how much it was used?
- jrs95 9y agoI didn't read it that way. To me, it seems like he's saying that how the tool is used pretty much eliminates it's downsides. It's not like this was being used to conduct no-knock SWAT raids or something.
- omarforgotpwd 9y agoI don’t think it was a bad tool. I think people who criticized it were worried more about what it could become down the road than what it actually was.
- emodendroket 9y agoThe problem is that a tool like this gives the same bad data a "scientific" sheen.
- jadedhacker 9y agoThank you for taking the time to respond to an anonymous coward such as myself. :) I do respect what you're trying to do and don't think you had ill intentions. I just don't think that technocratically helping police actually results in safer neighborhoods. You know more than I do about how your app was actually used. I would think that if your app was effective, it would have been used to justify upper level bureaucratic decisions. I respect that you tried to break out of the SV bubble of solving the problem of replacing a white middle class mom. Unfortunately, social problems like these are not very amenable to technological solutions. Optimizing the metrics we currently have result in more oppression rather than less. The police we have today evolved as an institution out of slave patrols. The broader critique is that we should have less policing and more wealth redistribution. How much crime would be happening if everyone had a fairer share of the wealth? How much crime would be happening if we didn't train criminals by putting them together in prisons and instead put them through education and mental health programs? If we revoked the exception in the 13th amendment that allows incarcerated persons to perform slave labor (notably exploited in California to fight wildfires)? Thank you for trying to change society for the better. We desperately need people willing to fight for a better world. However, next time you try, I would recommend reading dissenter opinions in detail before embarking on doing so. If the status quo was working, status quo opinions would have solved the problem. Listening to dissenters will make you more effective in solving the problem.