4 ms·
It's fairly obvious to me (after careful elaboration, that is): if you don't switch, you'll win iff you got the right door the first time (1/3). If you do swit
by meuk 9y ago
It's fairly obvious to me (after careful elaboration, that is): if you don't switch, you'll win iff you got the right door the first time (1/3). If you do switch you'll win iff you picked one of the wrong doors (2/3).
- carlmr 9y agoMy intuitive explanation when I was tutoring statistics was the following. (This works better while drawing I find.) Assume you pick one door. It's the right door with a chance (1/3) and the wrong door with a chance (2/3). Now if you could pick both other doors (2/3) you would choose those. And this is exactly what you're doing when you switch after the reveal. The other two doors always have one wrong one, which can be revealed. So switching after the reveal is the same as having the chance to pick two doors before the reveal.