9 ms·
There's nothing misleading about it, nor does height have a uniquely high heritability You can also predict childrens' adult IQ and many many other traits to si
by gwern 9y ago
There's nothing misleading about it, nor does height have a uniquely high heritability You can also predict childrens' adult IQ and many many other traits to similar degrees based on mid-parent regression, because they are all genetically influenced.
The point of the height GWAS example is that because it is so very obviously, even to the naked eye of the layman, genetically influenced and objective (you can't argue height doesn't exist), it serves as a simple test. If GWASes can't predict height, they probably can't predict anything else. And this was exactly how height was used back in 2009 or so when the 'missing heritability' debate was still going: if all these traits are genetic and additive, why aren't the GWASes able to find anything for height (back then)? The answer turns out to simply be that there wasn't enough data and the linear model analyses were lousy. Now there is enough data and better algorithms are being applied, so as expected, height prediction works much much better.
> All other phenotypes/traits are much more complex.
No, not really. That sort of polygenicity is the norm. Look at, for example, Shi et al 2016 which attempts to model the distribution of effects & thus polygenicity of 30 human complex traits: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/01/14/035907 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/01/14/035907 . Height doesn't exactly pop out of any of the charts.
> So what's the base risk? If the base risk is 0.0005% then a four times higher chance is still tiny.
...coronary artery disease should be quite obviously a higher base rate than 0.0005%. In any case, I believe the referenced study is Inouye et al 2018, in which case the extremized prediction is ~8% vs ~30% lifetime risk: https://www.gwern.net/images/genetics/2018-inouye-cad-riskprediction.png https://www.gwern.net/images/genetics/2018-inouye-cad-riskpr...
> None of the odds ratios are above 1.1, most are around 1.05, not a very extreme change to me!
It's the total that matters.
- gwern 9y ago(Or look at Zhang et al 2017 comparing complex architectures: http://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/08/11/175406 http://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/08/11/175406 )