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Not the end of The World: the return of Dubai's ultimate folly

41 points by pmcpinto 9y ago

gwern 9y ago
If the property market is still so hot after the worst global recession in decades and the previous ultimate folly sold so well and they're still able to get funding for the new one, in what sense is it a folly rather than a successful investment catering to the global elite?
- Analemma_ 9y ago
  One problem is that the islands are eroding [1], so any property built on them is doomed. You can delay the inevitable for a little while by pumping more sand in, but sand is running out [2]. More abstractly, The World really reminds me of the semi-serious "skyscraper index": the idea that big skyscrapers break ground right before a recession starts. The last time anyone cared about something as silly as The World was the eve of the Great Recession, and with renewed interest just as the warning signs are flashing that the bull run of the last 7 years is ending, this looks like irrational exuberance rather than sound investment. But hey, maybe this time will be different. [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/dubai/8271643/The-World-is-sinking-Dubai-islands-falling-into-the-sea.html https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/dubai/... [2] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/29/the-world-is-running-out-of-sand https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/29/the-world-is-r...
  - gwern 9y ago
    All property is 'doomed', though. All beachshore property will inevitably become either (a) water or (b) not beachshore. (And probably more the former than the latter.) Doesn't make them a bad idea. Even if it's not near a beach, the house will wear out and either need to be replaced piece by piece or in its entirety. And sand may get more expensive, but it's never going to 'run out'. The World may have high maintenance costs, but most mansions, yachts, and private jets do too. If you're rich, you can afford it.
    - sbierwagen 9y ago
      All property is doomed, but some properties are more doomed than others. 2 metres of sealevel rise won't be kind to The World, plus a projected wet bulb temp over 35 C by 2100 in that part of the world. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2833 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2833 Even the very rich might prefer to not live on a sinking pile of sand, where an air conditioning failure results in death within hours.
wrong_variable 9y ago
The UAE is an independent country and can do whatever it wants. A few weeks ago the guardian was complaining about the "folly" of Musk sending a Roadstar to space. It seems to me that anything that is not about feeding poor people is africa is a waste of time if you are a guardian writer. I am glad that Dubai is pushing the envelop of engineering - yes its kinda stupid - but so was electricity at one point. Maybe these projects will someday lead to them gaining the expertise to turn the middle east into some sort of futurist garden of Eden ? Compared to the looming war in the Congo, and the humanitarian crisis in Burma, alongside North Korea's nuke - doing a large civil engineering project seems downright nobel. And the migrant workers getting paid slave wages .. Are we supposed to pay them 3000 pounds / month like Journalists ? /s They are getting paid better than what they would get paid back in the countries they are from - sometimes multiple times. I do not see Guardian writers shedding tears for all the folks in 3rd world countries that would consider themselves lucky to go work for tax evading Europeans so that they can feed their family.
- meri_dian 9y ago
  These people are beyond hope. They are basically Communists. They can't grasp the benefits of the modern economy and so they just complain. Sure it would be nice if workers were paid more. It would also be nice if a homeless person could sleep in a bed tonight, or at least on a couch. Perhaps a Guardian writer could spare their couch? That wouldn't be too much to ask.
  - amenghra 9y ago
    There’s a difference between communism and monarchy. It’s not all black and white, but I don’t think you can call Dubai a communist city/state.
    - wrong_variable 9y ago
      He is not calling Dubai a communist state, he is calling people who are criticizing how a sovereign country spends its income communist - which is true by definition.
dhruvrrp 9y ago
The problem with The World is that it was designed during Dubai’s ‘throw money and solve the problem’ phase. They knew the islands were/would erode and had a very expensive rebuilding process in the works. Also iirc utilities were very expensive, which pushed it out of the budget of rich people. You had to be ultra-rich/a big corporation to be able to afford a place there. The Dubai of now is still an ostentatious place, but at least it’s embracing its resort town/holiday destination image with the multiple theme parks, water parks and shopping malls. More in line with, say, Florida but more luxurious.
throw1257 9y ago
I've been there. And it is quite spectaclar

41 points by pmcpinto 9y ago

If the property market is still so hot after the worst global recession in decades and the previous ultimate folly sold so well and they're still able to get funding for the new one, in what sense is it a folly rather than a successful investment catering to the global elite?

Analemma_ 9y ago
One problem is that the islands are eroding [1], so any property built on them is doomed. You can delay the inevitable for a little while by pumping more sand in, but sand is running out [2]. More abstractly, The World really reminds me of the semi-serious "skyscraper index": the idea that big skyscrapers break ground right before a recession starts. The last time anyone cared about something as silly as The World was the eve of the Great Recession, and with renewed interest just as the warning signs are flashing that the bull run of the last 7 years is ending, this looks like irrational exuberance rather than sound investment. But hey, maybe this time will be different. [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/dubai/8271643/The-World-is-sinking-Dubai-islands-falling-into-the-sea.html https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/dubai/... [2] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/29/the-world-is-running-out-of-sand https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/29/the-world-is-r...
- gwern 9y ago
  All property is 'doomed', though. All beachshore property will inevitably become either (a) water or (b) not beachshore. (And probably more the former than the latter.) Doesn't make them a bad idea. Even if it's not near a beach, the house will wear out and either need to be replaced piece by piece or in its entirety. And sand may get more expensive, but it's never going to 'run out'. The World may have high maintenance costs, but most mansions, yachts, and private jets do too. If you're rich, you can afford it.
  - sbierwagen 9y ago
    All property is doomed, but some properties are more doomed than others. 2 metres of sealevel rise won't be kind to The World, plus a projected wet bulb temp over 35 C by 2100 in that part of the world. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2833 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2833 Even the very rich might prefer to not live on a sinking pile of sand, where an air conditioning failure results in death within hours.

wrong_variable 9y ago

The UAE is an independent country and can do whatever it wants. A few weeks ago the guardian was complaining about the "folly" of Musk sending a Roadstar to space. It seems to me that anything that is not about feeding poor people is africa is a waste of time if you are a guardian writer. I am glad that Dubai is pushing the envelop of engineering - yes its kinda stupid - but so was electricity at one point. Maybe these projects will someday lead to them gaining the expertise to turn the middle east into some sort of futurist garden of Eden ? Compared to the looming war in the Congo, and the humanitarian crisis in Burma, alongside North Korea's nuke - doing a large civil engineering project seems downright nobel. And the migrant workers getting paid slave wages .. Are we supposed to pay them 3000 pounds / month like Journalists ? /s They are getting paid better than what they would get paid back in the countries they are from - sometimes multiple times. I do not see Guardian writers shedding tears for all the folks in 3rd world countries that would consider themselves lucky to go work for tax evading Europeans so that they can feed their family.

meri_dian 9y ago
These people are beyond hope. They are basically Communists. They can't grasp the benefits of the modern economy and so they just complain. Sure it would be nice if workers were paid more. It would also be nice if a homeless person could sleep in a bed tonight, or at least on a couch. Perhaps a Guardian writer could spare their couch? That wouldn't be too much to ask.
- amenghra 9y ago
  There’s a difference between communism and monarchy. It’s not all black and white, but I don’t think you can call Dubai a communist city/state.
  - wrong_variable 9y ago
    He is not calling Dubai a communist state, he is calling people who are criticizing how a sovereign country spends its income communist - which is true by definition.

dhruvrrp 9y ago

The problem with The World is that it was designed during Dubai’s ‘throw money and solve the problem’ phase. They knew the islands were/would erode and had a very expensive rebuilding process in the works. Also iirc utilities were very expensive, which pushed it out of the budget of rich people. You had to be ultra-rich/a big corporation to be able to afford a place there. The Dubai of now is still an ostentatious place, but at least it’s embracing its resort town/holiday destination image with the multiple theme parks, water parks and shopping malls. More in line with, say, Florida but more luxurious.

throw1257 9y ago

I've been there. And it is quite spectaclar