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I understand your point, but I appreciate the term "misapprehending"... like your point is trying to get away! My point, which may have gotten away as well, is
by lzw 16y ago
I understand your point, but I appreciate the term "misapprehending"... like your point is trying to get away!
My point, which may have gotten away as well, is that there will always be a rationalization for the claim that "if we don't act now, the whole system will seize up and it will be a catastrophe!"
I believe this is a perspective that is popular among politicians because it gives them a chance to take Bold Swift Action in the Face of Danger.
But it fails to understand what markets are. Markets, if allowed to operate, will reprice correctly, and pretty quickly, things that are mis-priced.
Thus we can have a huge change in the market price of some particular asset due to new information--- and here's the point-- but we then have a new price.
Politicians think that achieving this new price, eg, the price drop, is the calamity. But it is actually the aversion of the calamity because it brings clarity to all the players and they can start dealing with the new price.
The alternative, to "prevent the crisis" involves regulation which inherently makes prices more opaque and makes it harder for the operators to know what things are really worth.
I am not presuming perfectly efficient markets, they can over react, but it is the ability for prices to move freely based on new information that is the mechanism by which things get worked out.
Seizing control over the market inevitably does more damage, because it prevents transparency about real prices.
It also creates moral hazard because it incentivizes bad activity-- you just have to be "too big to fail" and then your actions have no consequences, or perceived consequences.
The mental image I think people have is that the economy is an engine and it can sieze up if there's not enough liduidity like oil, in it.
But that's not really right. If allowed, it will react fairly quickly and seek the least painful solution to the problem by letting actors price based on how efficiently they can solve the problem.
It is important for institutions that act poorly to fail, so that the following institutions can learn from their mistakes, or institute controls to reign in their excesses.
It is all the external solutions, like TARP and Stimulus, that are the sand in the oil, so to speak.
I've broadened my response, more to make my core point, and realize you may not be disagreeing with me.
BTW, the FDIC increases bank failures by having a government monopoly on deposit insurance. The rates are not priced actuarially and thus bad banks are not incentivized to be good banks less likely to fail. This is an example of the moral hazard. (not to mention the inherent risk of fractional reserve banking in the first place.)
- hga 16y agoI agree with the nearly all of your points including most especially the moral hazard point: the bailout of Bear Sterns appears to have encouraged complacency on the part of Lehman Brothers and holders of their debt. One of the latter, the Reserve Primary Fund (a pioneer in the field which had been boasting about the quality of the assets they held), "broke the buck" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_fund#Breaking_the_buck http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_fund#Breaking_the_...) and as far as I can tell that started a cascading failure of the world's financial system and my approval of intervention at that point and only that point is based on this. I agree that discovering the new price is not a calamity, my argument is narrowly limited to keeping the financial system going so that process can happen in a orderly fashion. The Great Depression in the US was immeasurably worse due to all the bank failures triggered by this sort of thing (and I've read this seems to be a mostly US phenomena due to regulations which kept banks small and limited to one state (heck, when I arrived in Massachusetts in 1979 a bank couldn't cross county lines; my bank (BayBank) had a holding company on top of their individual county banks)). The vast, near total majority of "bailouts", like the multiple efforts to prop up residential real estate prices in the US or Cash for Clunkers (which at best moved purchases forward in time and in the latter case amply demonstrate the Broken Window thesis) are not called for. An edge case of possibly justified intervention might be keeping GM and Chrysler alive so that the failure of the suppliers wouldn't put Ford out of business; that would be another example of a cascading failure, but a hopefully limited one and obviously spending less money by only keeping Ford's supply line intact would have been a lot better. ADDED: Here's Andy Kessler in the WSJ on "TARP and the Continuing Problem of Toxic Assets", due to the bait and switch (I supported the bait...): http://www.google.com/search?q=%22but+no+one+could+decide+what+price+to+pay+for+them.+Too+high+and+TARP+would+look+like+a%22+site%3Awsj.com http://www.google.com/search?q=%22but+no+one+could+decide+wh... (And, yeah, I've grown rather fond of "misapprehension"; it's great for situations where someone has gotten part of the point but the rest is succeeding for the moment in getting away.)