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And no mention of electric cars, which by themselves could more than double demand...

Certhas 9y ago
At least some calculations suggest that they will balance out the efficiency savings. Electrification of the heat sector is another big unknown.
imglorp 9y ago
I don't think it's as straightforward as more demand. One generation provider offers free EV charging on weekends[1], which shifts some charging to an offpeak time. Another confounder is that EV's can be used as storage devices dumping power back to the grid[2]. 1. https://www.chargepoint.com/products/home-station-incentives https://www.chargepoint.com/products/home-station-incentives 2. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-ev-chargers-and-energy-storage-can-make-good-grid-partners https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-ev-chargers...
- vidanay 9y ago
  A "free" incentive is completely orthogonal to the demand required. The electricity during that free EV charging period on weekends must still be produced and is part of the aggregate demand.
- infogulch 9y ago
  That evens out demand, but doesn't eliminate it. That's like evening out a 20ft wave down to a tiny wide swell vs the sea itself rising 10ft. We'll still need to double base generation.
  - crdoconnor 9y ago
    Solar energy that never ends up on the grid at all could end up doing that.
nu-world-odor 9y ago
quadruple when you consider all pogo players now burn two tanks of gas per week going places... they need to disable that damn long-range map or I will report them to the carbon tax committee.
ohdratini 9y ago
quadruple when you consider all pogo players now burn two tanks of gas per week going places... they need to disable that damn long-range map or I will report them to the carbon tax committee.
MatthewRJones 9y ago
Exactly what I came here to say. As electric cars become more common I wonder what that will do to demand. I can't imagine that in a future where almost every vehicle is electric that the demand will be offset by LED lightbulbs.
OliverJones 9y ago
Certainly the article's failure to mention electric transportation is strange. If the TVA's plannng also ignores EVs, that would be very strange. Timeshifting of demand is going to cut into the need for peaking power plants, shifting more demand into the base load.
Tade0 9y ago
Where did you get this number? All the studies I read pointed to a figure of 35% at most.
- tialaramex 9y ago
  What tends to happen is that people look at the energy going into motor vehicles from oil products, and they assume that translates into the same amount of electrical power. But actually an internal combustion engine is ludicrously inefficient, whereas an electric motor is not. So shifting to electricity saves loads of power, that's not why we're doing it, but it's why their intuition ends up wrong.
tyu100 9y ago
Yes, this was a really strange omission as was the threat of any stronger regulatory controls on fracking for natural gas. Both could change the landscape heavily again in the next few years.

At least some calculations suggest that they will balance out the efficiency savings. Electrification of the heat sector is another big unknown.

imglorp 9y ago

I don't think it's as straightforward as more demand. One generation provider offers free EV charging on weekends[1], which shifts some charging to an offpeak time. Another confounder is that EV's can be used as storage devices dumping power back to the grid[2]. 1. https://www.chargepoint.com/products/home-station-incentives https://www.chargepoint.com/products/home-station-incentives 2. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-ev-chargers-and-energy-storage-can-make-good-grid-partners https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-ev-chargers...

vidanay 9y ago
A "free" incentive is completely orthogonal to the demand required. The electricity during that free EV charging period on weekends must still be produced and is part of the aggregate demand.
infogulch 9y ago
That evens out demand, but doesn't eliminate it. That's like evening out a 20ft wave down to a tiny wide swell vs the sea itself rising 10ft. We'll still need to double base generation.
- crdoconnor 9y ago
  Solar energy that never ends up on the grid at all could end up doing that.

nu-world-odor 9y ago

quadruple when you consider all pogo players now burn two tanks of gas per week going places... they need to disable that damn long-range map or I will report them to the carbon tax committee.

ohdratini 9y ago

quadruple when you consider all pogo players now burn two tanks of gas per week going places... they need to disable that damn long-range map or I will report them to the carbon tax committee.

MatthewRJones 9y ago

Exactly what I came here to say. As electric cars become more common I wonder what that will do to demand. I can't imagine that in a future where almost every vehicle is electric that the demand will be offset by LED lightbulbs.

OliverJones 9y ago

Certainly the article's failure to mention electric transportation is strange. If the TVA's plannng also ignores EVs, that would be very strange. Timeshifting of demand is going to cut into the need for peaking power plants, shifting more demand into the base load.

Tade0 9y ago

Where did you get this number? All the studies I read pointed to a figure of 35% at most.

tialaramex 9y ago
What tends to happen is that people look at the energy going into motor vehicles from oil products, and they assume that translates into the same amount of electrical power. But actually an internal combustion engine is ludicrously inefficient, whereas an electric motor is not. So shifting to electricity saves loads of power, that's not why we're doing it, but it's why their intuition ends up wrong.

tyu100 9y ago

Yes, this was a really strange omission as was the threat of any stronger regulatory controls on fracking for natural gas. Both could change the landscape heavily again in the next few years.